Diving Into the AFC Playoff Scenarios Tuesday, December 22, 2009

(Note: I first wrote all this as a fanpost at SBNation. Then I copy and pasted it here.)

(If your're only interested in the ultimate conclusions of these scenarios, scroll down to the bold text at the bottom.)

The Steelers may still qualify for the playoffs! Since I spent a while thinking this through yesterday, I thought I'd share my understanding of our situation for anyone interested in who we really need to cheer for and how much it all matters to the Steelers. All this assumes the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Dolphins. Scenarios exist in which the Steelers could lose to the Ravens and still qualify for the post-season, but literally 10 out of 10 games would have to go our way. Not likely. So, assuming the Steelers finish 9-7, there is good news:

1. If 4 out of 4 games go our way this week, we control our own destiny. That means HOU, JAX, NYJ, and DEN losing at MIA, NE, IND, and PHI, respectively. All four teams are road underdogs, although it remains to be seen how long Peyton and company will play against NYJ.
   
2. No matter what happens this week, if PIT wins, PIT cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even if all four of those games go against us, there will still be a chance for us to proceed given the right Week 17 outcomes.
   
3. If we win, we have a great chance of being in the SNF game next week. NFC scenarios are unlikely to be 100% sure to decide playoff spots. If we control our own destiny as per point 1, we'll likely be on SNF. But even if NYJ won, MIA would then control their own destiny and we would play on SNF for that reason.
   
4. There is no "one game" or "one team" that we need to go our way. Any ONE of the following teams could win out and we could still qualify: DEN, JAX, NYJ, HOU, TEN. Also, BAL could win in week 17 and we can still qualify. We are not dependant on any one team.

Having said that, some games matter more than others, and there are many teams in better positions than us. Our advantage is that none of those teams are very good.

There are really two tiers of teams to get past: BAL/DEN at 8-6 and JAX/NYJ/MIA/HOU/TEN at 7-7. The more teams we can get past in one "tier," the more breathing room we have in the other tier. There are only two spots, so at the end of the day we have to get past all but one of these teams. However, there are many ways to accomplish this feat.

Let's first look at the 7-7 tier. MIA plays HOU and PIT, so not all teams can win out. But if they could, their order in playoff tiebreakers would look like this (conference record in parenthesis): JAX (8-4), MIA (7-5), NYJ (7-5), HOU (6-6), PIT (6-6), TEN (5-7). MIA finishes ahead of NYJ based on season sweep, HOU finishes ahead of PIT based on common opponents. When you look at this list, things look like they're in bad shape, but keep these things in mind:

1. PIT can eliminate MIA in week 17 with a win.
   
2. All these teams are 7-7 and have two chances to lose. Odds are the teams will be split among 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 at the end of the year, because they're all pretty average. We're assuming PIT is one of the 9-7 teams.
   
3. Finally, these "standings" are not carved in stone and can change based on how the chips fall these last two weeks and how the DEN/BAL games go.
   

Now certainly, PIT is stuck behind JAX and NYJ. If both teams win out, the Steelers have no shot. But if one of them lose a game, we have a shot, and if both of them lose just one game, we are practically at the head of the class! That is because there are multiple scenarios in which HOU can finish behind PIT despite both teams winning out.

For this reason, I'll call NYJ, JAX, and HOU the "Little 3." If we can pass all three, we are dependent on very little as far as DEN/BAL, and only need one of them to lose one game out of the three we're not involved in. Keep in mind: These are not very good teams. One of them is likely to lose.

Even if we only pass two of the Little 3, there are still opportunities to make the playoffs if BAL and DEN really blow it.

Obviously, to pass JAX or NYJ, we need them to lose a game this week or next week. NYJ could actually win the division if they win out, but in that case, NE would take their spot in the wildcard chase ahead of us, so it's moot for the Steelers.

For HOU, even if they win out, then if TEN wins out too, TEN will jump ahead of HOU within the division. Wildcard ties are broke first within the division, so in that case TEN would eliminate HOU and then we would win a tiebreaker over TEN. Besides that, if HOU and PIT finished at 9-7 and TEN loses a game, and then DEN beats PHI but loses to KC, PIT could get in in that situation as well, and BAL's game against HOU would become irrelevant. For a PIT/HOU/DEN tiebreaker, it would come down to Strength of Victory. Right now, DEN has the edge over PIT, but if some otherwise irrelevant games went our way, we could jump them. (I wouldn't attempt calculate this unless it is still a possibility next week!) If we ended up in that tiebreaker, BAL's game would become irrelevant because if they win, the Strength of Victory determines the 6th seed, and if BAL loses, SoV determines the 5th seed and if the Steelers lose SoV to DEN, they would then lose to HOU based on common schedule.

In sum, we need to jump ahead of at least two of the LIttle 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), and ideally, all 3. This would mean those teams losing a game, although in HOU's case, there are other possibilities to jump ahead of them (TEN winning out or that complicated paragraph above). If all three are eliminated, we only need to climb ahead of EITHER BAL or DEN. If only two are eliminated, we must climb ahead of both.

So let's jump back to BAL's and DEN's games for a moment. If we beat BAL, they can beat OAK and tie us at 9-7, but would finish ahead of us in any playoff scenario because they finish ahead of us in the division due to division record. Finishing ahead of Baltimore is simple: They must lose at OAK in week 17. This isn't as far fetched as it seems, as OAK now has 5 victories and even Jamarcus Russell has now contributed to a win.

However, as I just stated, if we jump ahead of all three of the LIttle 3, we don't need to finish ahead of BAL. In that case, we could alternatively jump ahead of DEN, in which case they would have to lose just one game: @PHI or vs. KC. PHI is playing very well right now and has not yet clinched the division. (And Denver does not look good.)

So, reviewing, if we pass all of the Little 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), only one of BAL/OAK's 3 games have to go our way in order to qualify for a wildcard spot. If we pass only two of the Little 3, we need to pass both BAL and DEN by having BAL lose to OAK and having DEN lose one of their games (in most cases).

Passing the Little 3 means having them lose a game, except for HOU, which needs to lose a game or have TEN win out, OR if we end up in a 3-way tie with HOU and DEN, we could advance based on Strength of Victory if certain games go our way. This would happen if DEN beat PHI but lost to KC (if those two games were switched around, DEN would win 3-way-tiebreaker based on 7-5 conference schedule and HOU would be ahead of us due to common opponents tiebreaker).

Having thought all this through, I'd estimate the following odds of qualifying for the postseason for the wildcard contenders, assuming for each team that it won out:

BAL and DEN; 100%

JAX: 85%

MIA: 75%

NYJ: 70%

PIT: 60%

HOU: 45%

TEN:5%

The odds may seem high, but keep in mind that many of these teams will lose the next two weeks, eliminating themselves and helping out the teams who manage to win. TEN is in bad shape. The only teams they beat in tiebreakers are HOU and MIA. Otherwise, they need all but one of the following things to happen: BAL to lose twice, DEN to lose twice, JAX to lose at least once, NYJ to lose at least once, and PIT to beat BAL but lose to MIA. That means they MUST have 4 of 5 games go their way, PLUS have JAX and NYJ to each lose once. (Or have 5 of 5 go their way and have either JAX or NYJ lose once.) Makes all these analysts saying that "TEN could be dangerous!" seem silly since, while they're playing well, the Titans have almost no shot to qualify for January football.

So, first of all, Go Steelers! Second of all, BOO Baltimore! Thirdly, Boo Denver! Finally, Boo HOU/Boo JAX/Boo NYJ/Go TEN!

On further review, Wallace outplaying Harvin Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Rookie WR, 1st round pick:
28 receptions, 369 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 39 yards rushing, 6 plays of 20 yards or more

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers WR, 3rd round pick:
25 receptions, 437 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, 43 yards rushing, NINE plays of 20 yards or more, Sunday evening news show personalities with same name: 1

Mike Wallace is the current Rookie of the Year, although you'll hear almost no national media taking notice. Wallace isn't even a starter and he's outplaying Harvin.

Steelers-Broncos Review: Defense shines without starters

The Steelers pounded the Broncos 28-10, and the winning margin would have been wider if not for a couple stupid turnovers when the Steelers were rolling.

Ryan Clark, Lawrence Timmons, Travis Kirschke, and Aaron Smith (IR) were out for the Steelers but the defense didn't miss a beat. Last time we lost DE Aaron Smith to IR in 2007, the defense crumbled. I've been impressed this year, and that's without Ziggy Hood getting much playing time. Nick Eason sured up the DL. The average age of our defensive line is 32, and features guys that have had unremarkable careers. Tomlin, LeBeau and John Mitchell have done incredible jobs there.

The linebackers have come on strong the past couple weeks. I would like to have Timmons healthy but Keyaron Fox is proving he deserves a starting spot too. It's a great problem to have. Harrison was steady as always and LaMarr Woodley is finally waking up from his first half slumber. I'm not sure what Woodley's problem has been. Maybe he had some life-problems that disrupted his play emotionally. He was much better last night. The tackling by everyone on defense was almost textbook perfect.

And of course Tyrone Carter played great in Ryan Clark's absense. We'll be hearing lots from the media this week about what a great "replacement" Clark was, but the national media doesn't realize that Tyrone Carter spends a lot of time on the field even when Clark and Polamalu are both healthy. He's a steady veteran, and Clark's position is obviously more replaceable than Troy's. Good thing since Clark is a free agent after the season. But expect Ryan Mundy, not Carter, to take over starting duties in 2010.

Roethlisberger and Ward continued their dominance, Rashard Mendenhall has (thankfully) proved me wrong, Santonio had a great game and Mike Wallace would garner rookie of the year consideration if Percy Harvin wasn't tearing it up in Minnesota. But the story of the offense has been the offensive line. These guys are so improved from last year. They are now a strength and a component of the team that can be relied on. Max Starks deserves to start in the pro bowl at left tackle.

The special teams have regressed to 2007 quality, but overall the Steelers are playing great football right now and look better than the 2008 Steelers who dominated on defense but were often impotent on offense. A lot of that has to do with Mendenhall, who still has room to improve but has effectively ended Willie Parker's career.

No time to rest, though, as the Steelers face the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals in five days. I have confidence that the Steelers are the better team but they need to play their best football to make sure they don't give Palmer and his troops a chance at the end like last time around. It's the most important game of the season by far.

Hats off to Brandon Marshall, who cannot be contained. The rest of the Broncos did not impress. The defense looked good in the first half and fell apart. Worst of all, in post-game quotes the Broncos sound like they're merely conceding that the Steelers are a great team and are not pointing the finger at themselves and the ways they need to improve to be true contenders. It looks to me like the true AFC contenders are the big three (NE, IND, PIT) plus the Steelers' little brothers in the AFC North (CIN, BAL).

Steelers lead league in passing stats. Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Don't look now, but Steelers lead the league in passing and receiving yards.

Hines Ward tops all receivers with 599 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger leads all passers with 1887 yards. Of course, the Steelers haven't had a week off yet (he is behind only Peyton Manning in yards/game), and the passing defenses the Steelers have played are ranked 13, 14, 23, 28, 29, and 32 in terms of yardage. But that doesn't project to change much next week, as the Vikings are 24th in passing yardage allowed in the league, giving up 248 yards per game. Ben is averaging 314.5. He is 4th in the league in passer rating, trailing three guys who have way better running games behind them than him.

The bigger surprise to me is Hines Ward. The man is 33 but looks as good as ever this season. One has to credit Mike Tomlin for giving him Wednesdays off to help prolong his career. One or two more seasons like this and Hines will make the Hall of Fame, which to me looked like a longshot before the season. The man deserves his due as one of the greatest Steelers of the post-70s era, right up there with Rod Woodson and Dermontti Dawson.

There is little hope of running the ball successfully against the Vikings, so look for Big Ben to log 40+ passes this week.

Pats cut Galloway, trade in works? And Predictions review Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Joey Galloway has been cut by the Patriots.

Three others have been cut as well, and people are wondering whether the Patriots are setting up a trade, with ProFootballTalk throwing Shawne Merriman's name out there. (If Rodney Harrison were still with the team, perhaps their HGH dealer could've been used to help bring Shawne into the fold).

I would like to point everyone to my regular season predictions, not because I made any good predictions but because I lamented about how everyone loves every Patriot personnel move, even the dumb ones.

Fred Taylor is injured (which shouldn't be a surprise) and Joey Galloway is unemployed. Richard Seymour just played a key role in beating the Eagles.

I know it seems silly to criticize the Patriots since they just won a game 69-0, but as Joe Torre would say, that only counts as one win. The Patriots are far from the Colts and Saints of the NFL world right now.

By the way, those playoff predictions weren't bad. I missed out on the Giants and Broncos. But who didn't miss out on the Broncos? And the Giants sill have plenty of time for a late-season collapse, while the Eagles always play better later in the year. I predicted 3rd-place finishes for both the Jets and Ravens, and while that looked dumb at first, the tables have now turned.

Clearly my Panthers playoff pick was a mistake, but look at what I saw that few did: The Bengals in the playoff race, the Saints as the best team in the NFC, the 49ers with a division lead, and the Titans being bad. And I still think the Texans and Eagles can come through for me.

Obviously the Aaron Smith injury hurts the Steelers chances. If had to re-pick now it'd be hard to pick against Peyton.

Aaron Smith out for months, but Hood won't benefit much Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Steelers DE Aaron Smith could be out for months.

Now THIS is a blow. The Steelers have gotten by at 2-2 without Troy Polamalu, who returns this week to face the Browns. But history shows that losing Aaron Smith is a much worse prospect. In 2007, Tomlin's first year, Smith was lost for the season and the defense crumbled. He is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.

Normally, my prognosis would be 3-4 wins off the regular season total, putting us at 7, 8 or 9 wins on the season and a first round exit in the playoffs at best.

However, there is a wildcard: 2009 first round pick Ziggy Hood. The guys seems smart and is universally regarded as a good pick, yet he's hardly seen the field in 2009. With the injury, will he now be a starter? Unfortunately, no. Tomlin says the situation will be defensive end by committee.

I'm preparing to cover my eyes in horror. Hopefully Hood impresses this week in practice and gets the bulk of the playing time. He might not be "ready" in the eyes of the coaching staff, but he's the only backup with the talent to make something happen at that position.

Back from the Dead Monday, October 5, 2009

Sorry about not posting last week. There's nothing more devastating than losing to a team from Ohio. I didn't even think about football last week because it was too painful. (Luckily that only happens about once every three years.)

The Steelers were up 28-0 in the third quarter. I was getting ready to write about Mike Tomlin, and the enormous gap between he and guys like Norv Turner and Wade Philips. When the Steelers are about to fall apart and they lose to the Bengals, Tomlin gets angry, his players take on his attitude, and they come out and take care of business. When Mendenhall is blowing his assignments in practice, Tomlin benches him, he responds, starts the next week and runs for 166 yards and two touchdowns.

When times get tough, what do Norv Turner and Wade Philips do? Do they really have credibility with the players to fire them up? Or do they just sit in meetings looking a little bit groggier?

Tomlin's best asset as a coach is not his youth or skin color. It's that he does two things few coaches can do in tandem: he connects with the players personally but it couldn't be more clear who's in charge. Once someone asked Tomlin in a press conference how he thinks his players would evaluate his work so far. He said, "It's their job to perform. It's MY job to evaluate." Can you imagine Wade Philips saying such a thing? The press would laugh at him. (And yes, that's partly Jerry Jones' fault.)

The Chargers made it interesting, nonetheless. Phillip Rivers is a great quarterback. With a couple minutes to go it was suddenly 35-28. Why have the Steelers consistently outplayed the competition this year but had to endure comebacks and two losses? Here's my explanations, in order of their impact on the team this season:

--Opponents. The Steelers have played four good teams in the Titans, Bears, Bengals and Chargers. I picked all but the Titans to make the playoffs and that looks like a solid prediction right now. The Titans will be something like 7-9. Worst of all, though, we've faced three good quarterbacks in a row: Cutler was impossible to sack and made no bad decisions in Week 2, and both Palmer and Rivers exploded for points at the end of the game. Both will put up a lot of good numbers this year. Looking forward to Stafford and Anderson the next couple weeks.

--Polamalu's injury. We need him back. This really accounts for both the late defensive struggles and the lack of big plays (sacks and interceptions). Our defense has played disciplined but we need Polamalu to cause havoc.

--Back luck. Santonio's mistake led to a pick-six last week. Stefan Logan not getting a whistle for stopped forward progress on the punt return when five Chargers were literally holding the 5'6" returner up so that they could strip the ball. A couple bad spots on the turf in Chicago. The Steelers have just had bad luck. This is no big deal; they'll have a mix of bad luck and good luck in the future.

--Playcalling. Arians called a great game on offense tonight but he was a big reason we lost the previous two weeks.

As Collinsworth kept mentioning, Chris Kemoeatu was a beast last night. I'm now optimistic about Mendenhall, as he did break a lot of tackles (haven't seen Wille do that in about a year), but the credit really goes to the O-Line. Unfortunately, not all run defenses are as pathetic as San Diego's.

By the way, San Diego missing the playoffs would be very satisfying. However, I still don't think Denver can survive their schedule. We'll find out soon as the teams play in two weeks.

Big Ben played great. I agree with Collinsworth: He's now a solid #4 behind Manning, Brees and Brady. I'll put Rivers at #5. Maybe later this week I'll post full quaterback ratings.

Why Punt? Friday, September 18, 2009

Check out this awesome story about a high school football team in Arkansas that never punts.

The article makes a great case for the practice, at least as far as small-time high school football goes. Punts only go about 30 yards anyway, and knowing you have four downs to get things done gives you a significant tactical edge over the defense.

This school also always kicks onsides. Once again, it makes sense for high schools: They gets the ball back 25% of the time, and the difference between the other team recovering or receiving deep is only 15 yards.

In football factory college programs and the NFL, of course, the situation is different, with 40-45 yard punting averages, and some punters who are experts at getting their kicks downed inside the 10. Onside kick recovery is only about 10%.

But I do think there are situations where more NFL teams should punt, especially if their punter isn't adept at the "coffin corner" kick. From midfield to your opponents' 35-yard line should be the "Go For It" zone. After all, let's say you punt it and it ends up at the 20, either by a touchback or a return. The difference in yardage compared to if you don't make first down? Only 15-30 yards. I'd gladly give that up for a 50% chance of simply keeping the ball.

The ideal place for this strategy would have been Super Bowl XL between the Steelers and Seahawks. In the first half, the Seahawks repeatedly drove down the field on the Steelers and punted into the end zone, giving the Steelers the ball at the 20. This happened three times(!!), which represents some wretched lack of touch by the Seattle punter. Thus, though it seemed as if Seattle was dominating, Pittsburgh went into the half up 7-3. It's the hidden reason many people believe bad officiating cost the Seahawks the game (not that I'm defending the officiating).

If you do have the solid combination of a good punter and a killer defense, it does make sense to punt the ball in most situations. The Steelers have that this year, but did not have it last year while Sepulveda was injured.

The Browns have neither, so I'll try to keep my eye on their game this weekend while I watch the Steelers and count the number of times punting may have helped them. Then I'll report back here.

Jack Lambert + Kennywood + Myron Cope =

That's marketing gold right there.

Mark Whipple/Miami Update Thursday, September 17, 2009

Alright, since I made that last post, Miami scored another 16 points and sealed the game.

Also, the cynic in me wants to conclude that Tomlin didn't keep Whipple around for authoritative reasons. Whipple had been a successful head coach; Tomlin was 34. It's a little backwards. Meanwhile, no one would ever mistake Arians for a head coach.

Why did Tomlin let Mark Whipple slip through his fingers?

Three key factors led to the Steelers turning around their 6-10 2003 season and going 15-1. The first reason is, of course, is Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th overall selection that year. The second reason is the coming of age of Troy Polamalu (drafted in 2003).

The third, hidden reason, was the new quarterbacks coach Bill Cowher hired, Mark Whipple. The guys was the head coach of John's own U.Mass. He had won a 1-AA championship. And he helped make Ben Roethlisberger a ridiculously successful quarterback.

Whipple stuck around for a couple more seasons, earning a Super Bowl ring, until Bill Cowher retired. When Tomlin took over, he kept a couple Cowher assistants, such as Dick LeBeau and LB coach Keith Butler. Perhaps he would have kept offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as well, if he hadn't already taken the head coaching job in Arizona.

So Tomlin needed an offensive coordinator. There were two good candidates on staff: WR coach Bruce Arians and QB coach Mark Whipple. For some reason, Tomlin went with Arians. Arians did have OC experience, but it was a terrible stint with the Browns. So why did Tomlin choose him? I don't know. Perhaps he asked Ben's opinion and Ben liked him better. Perhaps Whipple asked privately for his own release. I don't know.

All I know is, as I type this I'm watching the Miami (FL) offense rock Georgia Tech's world and lo and behold, their offensive coordinator is none other than Mark Whipple!

Meanwhile, a huge part of the Steeler's offensive problems is the terrible play calling by Bruce Arians, a problem rectified only when Ben calls his own plays. We won the Super Bowl despite him.

Oh how I wish Tomlin would have picked Whipple.

Tiki Knows How to Pull the Heartstrings Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Fluff piece about little girl Steeler fan with cancer... Brave girl, good stuff.

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Steelers-Titans Review: Overtime Saves Hines Friday, September 11, 2009

A few quick thoughts on the Steeler-Titan game:

That was a damn good game, a real regular season classic. It was the quintessential NFL regular season game and representative of the reasons why I love the NFL.

Analysts, even ESPN guys, are starting to properly understand Big Ben and what he brings to the table. Pump-fakes, avoiding sacks, improvising, always looking for the big play... You can't really rank him among the other quarterbacks because he's a whole different breed. Of course he's not as quick a decision-maker or as good at timing as the other top guys, but he's a superman in ways no other quarterbacks are.

Of course, what allowed him to lead TWO game-winning drives last night was AWESOME protection by the O-Line. Kudos to them on those last two drives. What I said in the preview yesterday was right on: If he makes only one big mistake, we'll recover and win. One mistake, no more, and the Steelers win.

The punting and return games were as good as advertised and enormous improvements on last year. Steeler fans all over the world were thanking God for Stefan Logan and Daniel Sepulveda.

Contrasting those improvements, the run protections and short-yardage games looked worse than ever. 40% of the problem is the play of our offensive line. 10% is Willie, who may not be the old Willie. But I think the biggest part of the problem is playcalling. I don't know if it's Tomlin, Arians, or both. But if the run isn't working, plunging up the middle over and over isn't going to solve it. We need more creative plays. It's no mystery why Ben is so good when behind at the ends of games: they go to the no-huddle and he calls the plays himself.

By the way, Collinsworth did an awesome job doing color. I was never a Madden-hater but at this point in their careers Collinsowrth is a big improvement. I actually enjoyed his comments.

Finally, the big question mark is Troy and how long he is out. I'm willing to take an extra loss or two here in the next month or so to make sure he is 100% healed, because the difference between an 80% Polamalu and a 100% Polamalu is significant. Anyway, though, what an incredible first quarter! It was 11-on-1 out there, and the 1 was winning.

I'll give the officiating a B+. The P.I. on Troy was bogus, but everything else was fair, and yes, Harrison is that good that he causes OTs to backup a yard and risk taking a penalty. I'd guess Tomlin made the refs aware of this problem beforehand.

I'm already rolling my eyes preparing in advance to hear complaints about NFL overtime, especially from the college football fans here in Columbus. Perhaps I'll post on this at lunch.

In closing, I'll say I'm not totally sold on the Titans and for now I'll stand by my 3rd-place AFC South prediction. I think they match up well with the Steelers offense and that helped them. They won't stop Indy and Houston as easily, especially without Haynesworth.

The time has come. Thursday, September 10, 2009

The new season begins tonight. Time for Steeler 'backers to start hittin' stuff.

NEW - Steelers LB's - Renegade GOOD QUALITY2
by gcairo55

(Not sure how long it will be before the NFL finds this video on DailyMotion and shuts it down.)

2009 Post-season Predictions

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers
AFC Wildcards: Bengals, Texans

Notes: More people are jumping on the Bengals bandwagon but I've always believed Marvin Lewis isn't as bad as some say, and a healthy Carson Palmer can't hurt. The Bengals get to play the entire AFC West, too.

The Patriots will have a great offense, of course, but I'm sick of hearing how it will be as good as two years ago. The likelihood of any offense being that good is very low. Also, why do people laud the Patriots for every single personnel move they make? All I hear is what great use they're going to make out of Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway. Whaa??? What other team could add these two players and actually be praised for it? Taylor is 33 and Galloway is, wait for it.... Thirty-seven. We praise the Patriots because of our perception of them, not because we've actually looked at their decisions.

It's the same with Richard Seymour. We're praising them for getting a potential top-10 pick, but haven't they hurt their team for this year? Yet no one's cut a win off their projected totals. Besides that, if Seymour never shows up in Oakland, there's a good chance the Pats will have to give the pick back (since there was no physical performed on Seymour), and then they will just have a mess on their hands.

I really wish I could pick the Chargers to miss the playoffs, but their division is so bad, it's impossible. However, I do not at all understand the constant fawning and graveling people do at the feet of this team every preseason. They have a nice offense, but all they have on defense is a playmaker here or there. I vow that the Norv Factor will come to pass this year and this team will be embarrassed on a regular basis by non-division opponents. It starts next week against Baltimore.

NFC Divison Winners: Eagles, Saints, 49ers, Bears
NFC Wildcards: Panthers, Packers

Notes: The popular perception of the Vikings mystifies me. I think people start to spout an opinion and it sounds nifty, so it spreads everywhere. The Vikings apparently have had the most talented roster in the NFC for two years. But outside of big-name players, do they really have depth and talent? Or is it just name recognition? (Obviously AP is the best RB in the league.) Besides that, coaching will always be their achilles heel.

Meanwhile, while the Vikings haven't had an 11-win season since 2001, the Panthers have done that three times, have won lots of playoff games and have a solid, steady coach, and yet almost no one is picking them to make the playoffs. Some say Delhomme left a bad taste in their mouth due to his season-ending performance but... what, Bret Favre didn't?!

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots
NFC Championship: Saints over Bears
Super Bowl Champion: Steelers

Notes: The AFC is easy: The Pats and Steelers have the two best rosters and head coaches in the NFL. I picked the Steelers to make the Super Bowl, of course, because I'm a homer.

To me, the Saints are a proven commodity. They averaged 29 points per game. TWENTY-NINE POINTS! Their putrid defense HAS to regress to the mean and become merely below average. If they do, it should mean 11 wins. If they can get a couple home playoff games, they can go far in the playoffs.

2009 Opener: Titans at Steelers Preview

What Went Down Last Time

Week 16: It was a close game for three quarters but the Titans scored a couple touchdowns at the end, earning a 31-14 victory. Ben did not play well and threw a pick-six. The Titans, tired of playing third-fiddle in the AFC to the Steelers and Ravens all season despite winning the most games, vented their frustration by disrespecting the Terrible Towel, literally treating it like a hankey and a doormat.

One key to last year's game was that it didn't really matter. Yes, if the Steelers beat the Titans, won again the next weekend and the Titans lost the next week, they could have gotten home-field advantage. But there were two factors that made that irrelevant. First, the Steelers have played poorly as the number one seed this decade (2-2, losing two home AFC Championship Games), and so are less motivated by the idea than other teams. Secondly, the third and six seeds were already set as the AFC East winner and the Ravens. Considering how much better the Ravens were than any AFC East team, it was obvious the number one seed would be playing the Ravens in the divisional round. What kind of reward is that?

(As an aside, that reminds me of a great idea Bill Simmons once had: Have the number one seeds choose which of the two remaining seeds they will play in the second round. Makes for great banter and bulletin board material. No doubt the Titans would have selected San Diego last season, not Baltimore.)

What has Changed?

Besides a World Championship, the Steelers have also gained a great kick/punt returner this offseason in Stefan Logan. Although Timmons should be a huge upgrade at ILB, he's injured for this game. Sweed, I think, will fill in admirably for Washington at the third WR spot. (Washington is now with Tennessee.)

Speaking of Nate Washington, he is indeed the Titans' biggest addition this year. Their biggest subtraction (in talent and pure pounds) is Volunteer Albert Haynesworth, who is now a very rich Redskin.

Considering the relative evenness of the teams last year and the various factors so far, that leaves a couple question marks that will sway this game one way or the other:

Question Marks

Will Ben play well? In some ways this is the only question that matters. Both defenses will play well. Collins will be very conservative. The Titans will have modest success at best running the ball on Pittsburgh's stout run defense. Our running game will be completely useless. But what we don't know is how well Big Ben will play. If he is mistake free, the Steelers should win. If not (and if the Titans take advantage) it could be hard to stomach. Our O-Line, of course, will not be good, but the key is not for Big Ben to have room to make plays, but for him not to make big mistakes at key times like he did in this game last year, as well as in the Colts game.

Will Nate Washington make a streak or two down the field for a long gain? The Steelers defense does not give up a lot of long plays, but we saw over and over again how Washington made defenses look silly last year, getting open deep.

It's all up to Ben tonight. The Steelers can take one bad mistake from him, but with each additional mistake, we'll need a big special teams play or defensive score to stay ahead.

This is the sixth straight time the Super Bowl champions have opened up the season at home on Thursday night, and even though the game is always scheduled against a tough opponent, the champs are 5-0 so far with this setup. I expect the same tonight, leading to a 20-10 Steeler win.

2009 AFC North Predictions Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Finally, the last one. The Steelers' home division plays the NFC North and the AFC West this season. Last year this division was home to both AFC Championship Game participants and between them they had three of the best games of the season.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - The World Champs are well-coached, uber-talented, and reasonably focused.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals defense was better than it looked last year, Palmer provides a big boost to the offense, and Marvin Lewis is underrated as a coach.
3. Baltimore Ravens - Flacco is no savior. The defense is getting older, plus they lost Bart Scott.
4. Cleveland Browns - The only easier spot to pick was the Lions. Mangini has taken a mess and made it messier.

At some point tomorrow I'll predict wildcards, Super Bowl, etc.

Hartwig signs extension

Center Justin Hartwig has signed an extension with the Steelers.

If you thought the 2008 Steelers line was bad, remember back to 2007 when we had Sean Mahan starting at center. Yikes!! I am very happy to see Hartwig sign an extension. The Steelers have had only 5 starting centers since 1974: Mike Webster, Dermontti Dawson, Jeff Hartings, Sean Mahan and Justin Hartwig. Webster is in the Hall of Fame, Dawson should eventually get there, Hartings was a steady presence for 7 years, and Mahan was the 32nd best center in the league in 2007. Hartwig restored aptitude to the position last season. Hopefully now he can restore stability.

Quite a list of re-signed players this offseason: "So far this offseason, the Steelers have negotiated new contracts with Brett Keisel, James Harrison, Kemoeatu, Starks, Essex, Keyaron Fox, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Charlie Batch, Andre Frazier and now Hartwig."

I'll assume Hartwig's contract is not huge. So he, along with Harrison, Starks, and Kemoeatu, gave the Steelers major steals in their deals. When the league has a hard salary cap, players being willing to take under-market contracts is a huge advantage that few teams posess.

Essex, Fox, Batch, and Frazier all signed on the cheap, of course, because they are not great players. (Not that I'm not grateful for Fox, who will start in place of Timmons tomorrow.)

That leaves Keisel, Ward, and Miller as the only ones signing questionable contracts. Miller is young and worth the big TE money and would be considered a top 3 tight end if he had a smarter OC. Ward and Keisel are old, but Ward's leadership is irreplaceable, and Keisel, as the theory goes, doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires. We'll see about that one.

Anyway, I'm glad we can finally put these sorts of topics behind us tomorrow and start watching real live NFL football!!

Hampton to be Cut? Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Rumors fly that Casey Hampton could be cut before the season.

The article's author, Ed Bouchette, laughs at the idea. Hampton is in his last year and is relatively affordable at $3M. The guy is not as good as he used to be but losing him would really thin us out, depth-wise.

Not only that, but as Hampton is close friends with many of his teammates, his teammates would probably be quite shaken by the cut.

The only way I can imagine this happening is if Hampton has been really, really bad in practices and it's obvious to everyone: front office, coaches, and all the players. But I haven't heard anything like that.

Even so, this will be Hampton's last year. Hopefully he can get Super Bowl ring #3 while wearing black and gold.

Roethlisberger's foot stepped on; not serious Thursday, August 20, 2009

Roethlisberger had his foot stepped on in practice today. Apparently it's no big deal and he'll be totally fine. (I suppose 15 years ago we never would have heard about it.)

Three years ago I would have said the Steelers have the top backup in football in Charlie Batch. Three years later, he is much older and often injured. With a healthy Roethlisberger, I'd predict a 13-3 finish for the black and gold. Without? 9-7? 10-6? The best defense in the NFL doesn't hurt, but I don't have a lot of confidence in Charlie any more. Behind him, Dennis Dixon shows promise but is developing slowly. What do you say we just sit Ben until Week 1?