2009 NFC South Predictions Thursday, August 27, 2009

Very quickly, the NFC South. All teams in the NFC South play all teams in the AFC East and NFC East this year. Should be a strong division this year. Predicted finishes:

  1. New Orleans Saints - They've got a killer offense. Will Malcolm Jenkins and other new additions on defense help make games winnable? Last season, the Saints were never more than 1 game away from .500. They had only 1 winning streak, a length of two games. They had only one losing streak, a length of two games. They finished 8-8. But you can only hold a great offense down for so long. The defense will have to regress to the mean and get better, leading to more wins this year.

  2. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers were impressive with a weak schedule last year, and put the beatdown on quite a few teams, leading to a 12-4 record. John Fox always has a well-prepared and physical team. Delhomme's meltdown against the Cardinals was stunning, but it doesn't represent the new Delhomme. He's still capable of steering the ship on the strength of a strong defense and running game, even though he makes mistakes.

  3. Atlanta Falcons - Most are betting on an Atlanta division crown. I have my doubts. Matt Ryan will definitely keep them in contention all year, though.

  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This team is either young or untalented almost everywhere. Their coach is a complete mystery. There will be growing pains for sure.

2009 AFC South Predictions Wednesday, August 26, 2009

I will now present my 2009 predicted finishes for AFC South teams, who all play the entire AFC East and NFC West. The South should be in contention as the strongest division in the league once again, with the Texans returning their suddenly high-octane offense, the Colts being the Colts and Jeff Fisher still the man in charge in Nashville.

  1. Indianapolis Colts - The erosion in performance from losing a great head coach is never felt the first season (see: Callahan, Bill and Phillips, Wade). So while I have no idea if Jim Caldwell is a good coach or not, the Colts could more or less make the playoffs blindfolded for one season if they had to. Many don't even realize they went 12-4 last year.

  2. Houston Texans - It's been popular the last 3 years to pick the Texans to finally win, and the last two years they have sort of delivered, with consecutive 8-8 seasons. If they were in the AFC East or the NFC West last year, they may have been 12-4. It's tough to play the Colts and Titans twice a year. However, with the new "triplets" (Shaub, Johnson, Slaton) firmly entreanched, there's no doubt the Texans will feature a top 10 offense this year.

  3. Tennessee Titans - A third place ranking is not a slight on the Titans. I believe in their coach. But I do think that, in combination with the loss of Haynesworth and the unlikelihood of Kerry Collins staying healthy for 16 games, an improved Texans club will leave the Titans on the outside looking in. Even a 10-6 finish could possibly leave this team in third place.

  4. Jacksonville Jaguars - It's mind-boggling to me that a city the size of Jacksonville refuses to support an NFL team, but it looks like it's time for the Jaguars to move on to L.A. or somewhere else as soon as possible. MJD is taking over starting duties from the tailback position, but other than that, it's hard to find positives for this team, and Del Rio lost the locker room late last season.

LeBeau does not deserve Hall of Fame induction. Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Detroit Lions CB Dick LeBeau and Broncos running back Floyd Little have been chosen as this year's senior nominees to the pro football hall of fame.

The way the Pro Football Hall of Fame works each year is that a committee whittles dozens of possible candidates down to 5 potential inductees. To those 5 candidates are then added two senior candidates, that is, two players who did not make it in their first 20 years of eligibility (a player is first eligible 5 years after they retire).

So the seven candidates are then each given a vote or confidence: a simple "yea" or "nay." Those who get at least 80% "yea"s are inducted into the Hall of Fame.

It's neat that the old timers do not have to compete head on with newly inducted players to be enshrined. But if this is the best the old timers have to offer, then I think we've run out of truly great players from the old days.

Dick LeBeau, of course, is much, much MUCH better known as a coach than as a player. He's coached all over the NFL for 35+ years, invented zone blitzes, and recently won two super bowls as defensive coordinator of the Steelers. He was a head coach for parts of three seasons with the Bengals, and one year opened up camp by dressing up like Superman and used the costume to attempt to convince grown men that they could be super enough themselves to win the Super Bowl. (Needless to say, he makes a better assistant than head coach.)

LeBeau was a good but unremarkable player, and has stated himself in interviews that he was "your average white cornerback." His best credentials as a player are starting 171 straight games (a CB record) and intercepting 62 passes (3rd all-time at retirement, tied 7th all-time today). The 117 games is impressive and adds to his resume for sure. However, it also subtracts because, hey, if you show up to work that many days in a row, your 62nd interception is bound to come eventually. Indeed, statistics like that are not good for use at cornerback, because the better you are, the less often you're thrown to. Dick LeBeau was NEVER first team All-Pro, and this should be the first red flag in any hall of fame discussion.

All six guys ahead of Dick LeBeau in interceptions are in the Hall of Fame, but all of them have at least 4 All-Pro selections. The guy LeBeau is tied with, Dave Brown, was actually a 2x All-Pro, and has been out of football for 20 years, but no one is clamoring for him to join the Hall of Fame.

But, you say, LeBeau deserves to go as a coach! Indeed, Dick LeBeau is easily the greatest assistant coach in NFL history. But since he's not retired, he can't be inducted as a coach yet. His veteran's committee nomination is only as a player.

No one has ever been inducted for their contributions as an assistant coach. This is probably because coordinators didn't exist until Paul Brown invented them in the late forties. So they weren't high profile until the eighties at the earliest. If we need to induct Dick that way, then change the rules of induction. I'm fine with that. But there's no reason to break the rules when there are better veteran players than LeBeau. He shouldn't get in just because he's more high profile today.

I won't comment as much on Little. Suffice it to say the Broncos have very few alumni in the Hall of Fame, and I would like to see more. I hold out hope that we'll see TD and Sharpe both there eventually. Little was important to the Broncos, and as an AFL star, it is interesting to read about him, but he just is not important or all that notable in NFL history.

Favre Strikes Again

He's gone for the low blow this time... forcing my beloved mascot to work into the wee-hours of the night.

UMass Football Saturday, August 22, 2009

I sat down a little while ago to write a post about FCS Apologetics. I got to the third paragraph when the mail man rang the door bell. He had the most important package ever delivered: My season tickets to the University of Massachusetts Minutemen (and parking pass). I am the proud owner (renter?) of Section 5, row S, seats 10 and 11. I'm now too excited to concentrate on the FCS apologetics, so I'll write a bit about UMass football and then finish that post at a later date.

So here's 2009 UMass Schedule:
9/5 @ Kansas State (FBS)
9/12 vs Albany
9/19 vs Rhode Island*
9/26 vs Stony Brook
10/10 @ Delaware*
10/17 vs New Hampshire*
10/24 @ Richmond*
10/31 @ Maine*
11/7 vs Northeastern*
11/14 vs James Madison*
11/21 @ Hofstra*

So, I put an asterisk next to all the CAA teams, which is the UMass Football Conference. It's a tough schedule, though that always happens when you play in an elite conference like the CAA. It's especially tough because Quarterback Liam Coen graduated last year and head coach Don Brown left to become the defensive coordinator at Maryland. Coen set pretty much every UMass passing record and lead the team to a National Championship game. They lost to a team who went out to Michigan the opening week next season and beat the Wolverines. And that Michigan team went on to win a Rose Bowl, so it wasn't like they sucked. So yeah, UMass'll miss Coen. Brown was a real good coach too, especially on the defensive side of the ball. He always blitzed a bit too much for my tastes, but who can argue with the success he had? New coach (Kevin Morris, former Offensive Coordinator at UMass) and new quarterback (as to who, you're guess is as good as mine, assuming you know who the four on the UMass roster are) aren't exactly how you want to start a season. Especially with UMass, who runs a pro style offense where the quarterback is expected to throw the ball down field. Due to these great unknowns, I think UMass will probably finish around the .500 mark (maybe a game or two below). However, the last time UMass was in this predicament, the new coach was Brown and he benched the old starter in week one in favor of Coen. That worked out nicely.

I'll have more to say when the season gets closer. The only thing I have to do is figure out who goes to what games. My brother called Albany and my dad called James Madison (a double header with the a hockey game vs UNH that night).

Reason to never watch preseason football #4699 Thursday, August 20, 2009

Following a beautiful touchdown pass from new Bengal JT O'Sullivan to Chris Henry that featured great pass protection on an all-out blitz, Chad Ochocinco walked out onto the field for the.... extra point??!

I just watched Chad Ochocinco nail an extra point (it would have been good from 40 yards). It's time to stop watching preseason NFL for the night.

Roethlisberger's foot stepped on; not serious

Roethlisberger had his foot stepped on in practice today. Apparently it's no big deal and he'll be totally fine. (I suppose 15 years ago we never would have heard about it.)

Three years ago I would have said the Steelers have the top backup in football in Charlie Batch. Three years later, he is much older and often injured. With a healthy Roethlisberger, I'd predict a 13-3 finish for the black and gold. Without? 9-7? 10-6? The best defense in the NFL doesn't hurt, but I don't have a lot of confidence in Charlie any more. Behind him, Dennis Dixon shows promise but is developing slowly. What do you say we just sit Ben until Week 1?

2009 NFC East Predictions Wednesday, August 19, 2009

I'm gonna post, along with some comments, my predicted finishes for all eight NFL divisions over the next couple weeks. Today: The NFC East.

The NFC East is arguably the best division in pro football, and unquestionably the division that gets the most media coverage. With Vick added to the fold in Philadelphia, the media coverage will only increase (but at least Jessica Simpson is out of the picture). Everyone in the division is playing the NFC South and the AFC West.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles - The Vick acquisition may make a small positive difference, although it's the aggregate number of skill position players that compounds to make this offense very exciting. The death of D-Coor Jim Johnson won't help, although I'm assuming whoever has been promoted will be able to keep Johnson's train running for at least one season. Reid is a great coach and the Eagles are always in it at the end of the season.
  2. Washington Redskins - Haynesworth was certainly overpaid but a great defensive tackle is as much a sure thing in free agency as any. He's sure to make a difference. I do think head coach Jim Zorn is underrated (as long as he stays on Clinton Portis' good side) and Jason Campbell at least can steer the ship competently.
  3. New York Giants - The conventional wisdom is that Eli crumbled last season without premiere wide-out Plaxico to throw to, and the conventional wisdom was 100% correct. Eli will regress back to the mediocre QB his was. I'm expecting the Giants to fall to 6-8 wins. (Although Brandon Jacobs is still a beast.)
  4. Dallas Cowboys - I know this looks like standard Cowboy-hate coming from a Steeler fan, but it's year three of the Wade Phillips Hang-On-For-Dear-Life-Rickety-Roller-Coaster-That-Will-Inevitably-Crash ride. Owens' presence was an excuse, and a mature locker room with actual leaders would simply ignore him (or threaten him). The Cowboys will not be better without him, and will finish last in what could still be the NFL's top divison.

Broken Beanie

Beanie Wells out again with an ankle.

OSU alum Beanie Wells is out again with a hurt ankle. This guy is more fragile than a whisper. I'm just happy for him that he already signed and collected his $2 million signing bonus, because he may never be a good pro, considering his propensity to end up in the training room with ice on his feet.

Supposedly, this is not serious and he'll be back soon, but Cardinal fans are surely groaning with regret over this pick already.

(Then again, I would still trade Mendenhall for him straight up in a second.)

Comments now work.

Comments were not working. Now they work.

--Management.

Brett Favre Tuesday, August 18, 2009

To steal a line from Mark Hoppus, a lot of people are just starting to jump on the "I hate Brett Favre" band wagon. I'm old school. I've been hating Brett Favre since 1995.

Well, more like since January of 1997. That's when the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI, 35-21. I remember Favre throwing a touch down bomb early in the game, taking his helmet off and sprinting up and down the field in a manner that today would have earned him at least two personal fouls. I've despised the man ever since.

I gave him a chance to redeem himself once. At the end of the 2002 season, the Patriots needed to beat Miami in a 1PM game and they needed Brett Favre and the Packers to beat the Jets in a 4pm game in order to win a division title. The Patriots came from behind to beat the Dolphins. I swore I'd forgive Favre and love him like everyone else (or at least tolerate his existence) if he beat the Jets. What did he do? He single handedly eliminated the defending champions from contention by throwing incompletion after incompletion after incompletion after interception. You could tell he didn't want to be there or even really care about the outcome. Jets fans can't say he never got them into the playoffs. My hatred escalated.

I always hated that Favre was like Jeter in that he could do no wrong in the eyes of the press. I remember watching a Sunday Night game in 2004 where the Packers were beating the Texans by two scores. Favre then threw an interception in the red zone and David Carr led the Texans down the field to bring them within a field goal from looking at the final score. Favre threw another red zone-interception and Carr led the Texans into the red zone and threw an incomplete pass or something on 4th down or the last play of the game...memory is a bit hazy. The announcers were all over Carr, saying he needed to be more like Favre, who would never make a mistake in the red zone in such a close game. Apparently their memories were a bit hazy too.

But the thing I really hated about him was that no one else hated him. On the contrary, everyone loved him. I was at a Bible Study, and afterwards we watched Monday Night Football. I think the Packers were playing the Chiefs. Everyone was going on and on about how great Favre was and asked me what I thought of him. I told them I didn't like him. The kid next to me said "Get out of this room, Satan!"

I use to root for the Packers to go 0-16 every year. It unfortunately never happened, though they went 4-12 in 2006 and I was pumped because I thought it meant the end of Favre. He came back another year, and wouldn't you know it, he got me again. Not only did the Packers do really well, going 13-3, but they also had homefield advantage in the NFC Championship game against the Giants. Favre threw two interceptions, including one in overtime that punched the Giants tickets to Super Bowl XLII. There's no doubt in my mind the Packers would have been destroyed by the Patriots that year. It's tough to say which I hate Favre more for: losing the 2007 NFC Championship game or winning Super Bowl XXXI. I'd have to go with the former, as if he had won the Patriots would have avenged the latter infinitely many times over.

So, then Favre retired but didn't and instead came back as a Jet. Let me be honest with you. This was the first thing he ever did that I approved of. Why wouldn't I want one my least favorite players* on my least favorite team, especially as a washed up bum? But he got me again, as only Brett Favre can do. The Patriots needed to beat some crappy team on the final day of the season in a 1PM game and have Favre beat the Dolphins in a 4pm game to win the division. A quick Google Search tells me it was the Patriots opponent was the Bills, and New England obviously beat them. Wanna guess how well Favre did? Just go back up and read my 2002 summary.

To summarize the above, since I started watching football religiously in 1996, Brett Favre has been directly responsible for ending 3 Patriot seasons and indirectly responsible for the worst loss in not only Patriot history, but professional sports history itself. Now he's back with the Vikings. The one prediction I'm going to make is somehow Brett Favre will single handedly ruin this season for me.

* Brett Favre and Peyton Manning are 1A and 1B. I can't decide which I hate more.

2009 AFC East Predictions Friday, August 14, 2009

I'm gonna post, along with some comments, my predicted finishes for all eight NFL divisions over the next couple weeks. I'll start with what I think is the easiest division to predict: The AFC East.

Last year, this division had a cake schedule, with everyone in the division playing the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders. That explains the turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 for the Dolphins. This year, not so lucky. Everyone in the division must play Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta.

  1. New England Patriots - In some ways, last year's championship wasn't quite as satisfying without having to take down Brady. He's back, he's good, and their offense will still be the most productive in the league. I do think their defense will continue to slip, but there's just no one who can keep up with them in this division.

  2. Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens will improve the team (though one aged wide receiver can only do so much), but with our without him, it's a team that's been building talent and competing for a couple years. Anyway, I believe 8-8 could claim second place here

  3. New York Jets - I'm sure we're all big fans of their new running back, Shonn Greene, but a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback do not a division winner make.

  4. Miami Dolphins - Besides the opponents listed above, the Dolphins will also have to face San Diego and Pittsburgh, which their division foes do not. The Dolphins benefited from an incredibly easy schedule last year, not to mention a crippled Patriots team. Despite what was seen last year, Chad Pennington and Joey Porter are at the ends of their ropes. You heard it here first: The Dolphins will fall back to earth hard.


Tomorrow or something: The NFC East

Vick to Eagles

Didn't watch the Steeler preseason game last night on ESPN. Instead, I was playing a game of Acquire. In the meantime, though, it was apparently announced that Michael Vick will play for the Eagles. I'm impressed that this was not leaked a couple days ago. There were, in fact, many speculating that there were no interested teams, and Vick was just waiting for a starting QB to get injured to have a chance.

In some corners of the internet, folks are speculating about Andy Reid's troubled sons, pointing out that he would be more likely to give someone a second chance. Not a bad point.

It makes sense from a football standpoint, way more than it does for the Steelers, since we just won the Super Bowl and don't need any distractions, and have Dennis Dixon if we want to do "wildcat" stuff.

Personally, I'm still wary about the NFL giving a guy a paycheck whose principal use of his paycheck in the past was to run a sophisticated yet illegal and cruel gambling ring for seven years. But from a non-business standpoint I have no problem forgiving him and I hope he succeeds.

My guess is the few mandatory weeks off will be helpful, as he will be extremely rusty at first, with some questioning whether he should have been signed at this time once he gets some practice in. But he'll come around. He's an incredible athlete.

If there was any doubt... Thursday, August 13, 2009

If there was any doubt that punters can tackle too, here is the video of Steeler punter Daniel Sepulveda punting for Baylor and then running a guy down and knocking him senseless, for those who have never seen it:



That will always be one of my favorites.

Quinn Learns from the Master? Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Per John Clayton at ESPN:

Coming off a 4-12 season, the Browns obviously have a lot to work on. Derek Anderson said the radio receiver in his helmet wasn't working Sunday, so he had to work with hand signals. Anderson said Brady Quinn, who was quarterbacking the White team, schooled White defenders on those hand signals, which made it harder for Anderson to work a drive filled with short passes. Details, details, details.
So Brady Quinn is stealing hand signals--from his own teammate--while playing under the guy who ratted on the guy who taught him to steal signals for stealing signals?

Hilarious. How do the Browns continue to employ the most unintentionally entertaining characters in sports year after year after year? Quinn, Mangini, Phil Savage, Romeo, Kellen Winslow II, Dwayne Rudd... Even Bernie Kosar doing the preseason color commentary makes me laugh.

Case in point: this video, in which (in the second half) Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards are the only two people who get talked into wearing old-person sunglasses.

What makes an improved team?

We hear about it all offseason: FREE AGENCY, DRAFT, FREE AGENCY, DRAFT, FREE AGENCY, DRAFT. But how much of it even matters to this season?

The Steelers rarely make a big free agent splash, and their last two rookies of the year were Patrick Bailey (undrafted special teamer who was released at one point in the middle of the season) and Daniel Sepulveda (the punter). Yet they are a perennial contender and the current Super Bowl champions.

Indeed, teams can rarely count on a rookie to make a big difference, and in fact, the more rookies you have playing, the worse off your football team probably is. As for free agency, two words put to rest the question of its over-hyped nature: Daniel Snyder.

So what is it that really makes a team improve from one year to the next? The answer is recent rookies, those second- and third-year players who take a big step up from their early NFL career. Those first two years of experience make a huge difference, almost always bigger than a free agent addition or draft pick can make.

Think about these contributors to the Steelers' Super Bowl XLIII winning team who were second- or third-year players: Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Darnell Stapleton, William Gay, Santonio Holmes, Willie Colon. All six made a big impact for the first time last year.

I hypothesize that the improvement of second- and third-year players is the number one difference maker for a pro football team. Here's a list at the second- and third-year Steelers who might make their mark in 2009:

  1. Lawrence Timmons, ILB - The 2007 15th overall selection had a quiet rookie year and began to ramp it up last year when he would replace physically inferior Larry Foote. With Foote now in Detroit, Lawrence Timmons will be out there full-time. Last year his incredible athleticism was apparent two to three times per game. As a full-time starter, I expect a Pro Bowl-caliber season.

  2. William Gay, CB - "Big Play Willy Gay" (Tomlin's words) has looked good since his rookie year and has worked his way up the CB ladder to a starting role, one he shared in the latter parts of 2008 with Brian McFadden. It has yet to see if he's as talented as the departed McFadden, and I think we could have paid McFadden better than Arizona did (only $10M for two years), but I'm excited to see Big Play across the field from Ike in every formation.

  3. LaMarr Woodley, OLB - Should have been named to the Pro Bowl last year. This year I'm expecting All Pro from the outrageously talented Wolverine.

  4. Limas Sweed, WR - Was in the dog house for that drop in the AFC Championship Game, but should easily win the vacated third WR spot and has looked great in camp so far.

  5. Daniel Sepulveda, P - Imagine how good our defense would have looked last year with a decent punter. The 2007 Steeler rookie of the year is back after spending last year on IR.

  6. Darnell Stapleton, OG/C - Stapleton is injured and may not get his starting spot back, but I'm sure he'll find playing time, and he was impressive as a second-year undrafted free agent last season, starting in place of the injured Simmons.
  7. Rashard Mendenhall, RB - Mendenhall has yet to impress me, and will have trouble stealing time away from the perpetually underrated Willie Parker. But if Parker is injured, here's to hoping he surprises us.

Needless to say, with all this second- and third-year talent starting to bloom, the World-Champion Steelers will actually be a much better team this year, after winning the Brady-less NFL last year.