Steelers-Titans Review: Overtime Saves Hines Friday, September 11, 2009

A few quick thoughts on the Steeler-Titan game:

That was a damn good game, a real regular season classic. It was the quintessential NFL regular season game and representative of the reasons why I love the NFL.

Analysts, even ESPN guys, are starting to properly understand Big Ben and what he brings to the table. Pump-fakes, avoiding sacks, improvising, always looking for the big play... You can't really rank him among the other quarterbacks because he's a whole different breed. Of course he's not as quick a decision-maker or as good at timing as the other top guys, but he's a superman in ways no other quarterbacks are.

Of course, what allowed him to lead TWO game-winning drives last night was AWESOME protection by the O-Line. Kudos to them on those last two drives. What I said in the preview yesterday was right on: If he makes only one big mistake, we'll recover and win. One mistake, no more, and the Steelers win.

The punting and return games were as good as advertised and enormous improvements on last year. Steeler fans all over the world were thanking God for Stefan Logan and Daniel Sepulveda.

Contrasting those improvements, the run protections and short-yardage games looked worse than ever. 40% of the problem is the play of our offensive line. 10% is Willie, who may not be the old Willie. But I think the biggest part of the problem is playcalling. I don't know if it's Tomlin, Arians, or both. But if the run isn't working, plunging up the middle over and over isn't going to solve it. We need more creative plays. It's no mystery why Ben is so good when behind at the ends of games: they go to the no-huddle and he calls the plays himself.

By the way, Collinsworth did an awesome job doing color. I was never a Madden-hater but at this point in their careers Collinsowrth is a big improvement. I actually enjoyed his comments.

Finally, the big question mark is Troy and how long he is out. I'm willing to take an extra loss or two here in the next month or so to make sure he is 100% healed, because the difference between an 80% Polamalu and a 100% Polamalu is significant. Anyway, though, what an incredible first quarter! It was 11-on-1 out there, and the 1 was winning.

I'll give the officiating a B+. The P.I. on Troy was bogus, but everything else was fair, and yes, Harrison is that good that he causes OTs to backup a yard and risk taking a penalty. I'd guess Tomlin made the refs aware of this problem beforehand.

I'm already rolling my eyes preparing in advance to hear complaints about NFL overtime, especially from the college football fans here in Columbus. Perhaps I'll post on this at lunch.

In closing, I'll say I'm not totally sold on the Titans and for now I'll stand by my 3rd-place AFC South prediction. I think they match up well with the Steelers offense and that helped them. They won't stop Indy and Houston as easily, especially without Haynesworth.

2009 Opener: Titans at Steelers Preview Thursday, September 10, 2009

What Went Down Last Time

Week 16: It was a close game for three quarters but the Titans scored a couple touchdowns at the end, earning a 31-14 victory. Ben did not play well and threw a pick-six. The Titans, tired of playing third-fiddle in the AFC to the Steelers and Ravens all season despite winning the most games, vented their frustration by disrespecting the Terrible Towel, literally treating it like a hankey and a doormat.

One key to last year's game was that it didn't really matter. Yes, if the Steelers beat the Titans, won again the next weekend and the Titans lost the next week, they could have gotten home-field advantage. But there were two factors that made that irrelevant. First, the Steelers have played poorly as the number one seed this decade (2-2, losing two home AFC Championship Games), and so are less motivated by the idea than other teams. Secondly, the third and six seeds were already set as the AFC East winner and the Ravens. Considering how much better the Ravens were than any AFC East team, it was obvious the number one seed would be playing the Ravens in the divisional round. What kind of reward is that?

(As an aside, that reminds me of a great idea Bill Simmons once had: Have the number one seeds choose which of the two remaining seeds they will play in the second round. Makes for great banter and bulletin board material. No doubt the Titans would have selected San Diego last season, not Baltimore.)

What has Changed?

Besides a World Championship, the Steelers have also gained a great kick/punt returner this offseason in Stefan Logan. Although Timmons should be a huge upgrade at ILB, he's injured for this game. Sweed, I think, will fill in admirably for Washington at the third WR spot. (Washington is now with Tennessee.)

Speaking of Nate Washington, he is indeed the Titans' biggest addition this year. Their biggest subtraction (in talent and pure pounds) is Volunteer Albert Haynesworth, who is now a very rich Redskin.

Considering the relative evenness of the teams last year and the various factors so far, that leaves a couple question marks that will sway this game one way or the other:

Question Marks

Will Ben play well? In some ways this is the only question that matters. Both defenses will play well. Collins will be very conservative. The Titans will have modest success at best running the ball on Pittsburgh's stout run defense. Our running game will be completely useless. But what we don't know is how well Big Ben will play. If he is mistake free, the Steelers should win. If not (and if the Titans take advantage) it could be hard to stomach. Our O-Line, of course, will not be good, but the key is not for Big Ben to have room to make plays, but for him not to make big mistakes at key times like he did in this game last year, as well as in the Colts game.

Will Nate Washington make a streak or two down the field for a long gain? The Steelers defense does not give up a lot of long plays, but we saw over and over again how Washington made defenses look silly last year, getting open deep.

It's all up to Ben tonight. The Steelers can take one bad mistake from him, but with each additional mistake, we'll need a big special teams play or defensive score to stay ahead.

This is the sixth straight time the Super Bowl champions have opened up the season at home on Thursday night, and even though the game is always scheduled against a tough opponent, the champs are 5-0 so far with this setup. I expect the same tonight, leading to a 20-10 Steeler win.

2009 AFC South Predictions Wednesday, August 26, 2009

I will now present my 2009 predicted finishes for AFC South teams, who all play the entire AFC East and NFC West. The South should be in contention as the strongest division in the league once again, with the Texans returning their suddenly high-octane offense, the Colts being the Colts and Jeff Fisher still the man in charge in Nashville.

1. Indianapolis Colts - The erosion in performance from losing a great head coach is never felt the first season (see: Callahan, Bill and Phillips, Wade). So while I have no idea if Jim Caldwell is a good coach or not, the Colts could more or less make the playoffs blindfolded for one season if they had to. Many don't even realize they went 12-4 last year.


2. Houston Texans - It's been popular the last 3 years to pick the Texans to finally win, and the last two years they have sort of delivered, with consecutive 8-8 seasons. If they were in the AFC East or the NFC West last year, they may have been 12-4. It's tough to play the Colts and Titans twice a year. However, with the new "triplets" (Shaub, Johnson, Slaton) firmly entreanched, there's no doubt the Texans will feature a top 10 offense this year.


3. Tennessee Titans - A third place ranking is not a slight on the Titans. I believe in their coach. But I do think that, in combination with the loss of Haynesworth and the unlikelihood of Kerry Collins staying healthy for 16 games, an improved Texans club will leave the Titans on the outside looking in. Even a 10-6 finish could possibly leave this team in third place.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars - It's mind-boggling to me that a city the size of Jacksonville refuses to support an NFL team, but it looks like it's time for the Jaguars to move on to L.A. or somewhere else as soon as possible. MJD is taking over starting duties from the tailback position, but other than that, it's hard to find positives for this team, and Del Rio lost the locker room late last season.