2009 Opener: Titans at Steelers Preview Thursday, September 10, 2009

What Went Down Last Time

Week 16: It was a close game for three quarters but the Titans scored a couple touchdowns at the end, earning a 31-14 victory. Ben did not play well and threw a pick-six. The Titans, tired of playing third-fiddle in the AFC to the Steelers and Ravens all season despite winning the most games, vented their frustration by disrespecting the Terrible Towel, literally treating it like a hankey and a doormat.

One key to last year's game was that it didn't really matter. Yes, if the Steelers beat the Titans, won again the next weekend and the Titans lost the next week, they could have gotten home-field advantage. But there were two factors that made that irrelevant. First, the Steelers have played poorly as the number one seed this decade (2-2, losing two home AFC Championship Games), and so are less motivated by the idea than other teams. Secondly, the third and six seeds were already set as the AFC East winner and the Ravens. Considering how much better the Ravens were than any AFC East team, it was obvious the number one seed would be playing the Ravens in the divisional round. What kind of reward is that?

(As an aside, that reminds me of a great idea Bill Simmons once had: Have the number one seeds choose which of the two remaining seeds they will play in the second round. Makes for great banter and bulletin board material. No doubt the Titans would have selected San Diego last season, not Baltimore.)

What has Changed?

Besides a World Championship, the Steelers have also gained a great kick/punt returner this offseason in Stefan Logan. Although Timmons should be a huge upgrade at ILB, he's injured for this game. Sweed, I think, will fill in admirably for Washington at the third WR spot. (Washington is now with Tennessee.)

Speaking of Nate Washington, he is indeed the Titans' biggest addition this year. Their biggest subtraction (in talent and pure pounds) is Volunteer Albert Haynesworth, who is now a very rich Redskin.

Considering the relative evenness of the teams last year and the various factors so far, that leaves a couple question marks that will sway this game one way or the other:

Question Marks

Will Ben play well? In some ways this is the only question that matters. Both defenses will play well. Collins will be very conservative. The Titans will have modest success at best running the ball on Pittsburgh's stout run defense. Our running game will be completely useless. But what we don't know is how well Big Ben will play. If he is mistake free, the Steelers should win. If not (and if the Titans take advantage) it could be hard to stomach. Our O-Line, of course, will not be good, but the key is not for Big Ben to have room to make plays, but for him not to make big mistakes at key times like he did in this game last year, as well as in the Colts game.

Will Nate Washington make a streak or two down the field for a long gain? The Steelers defense does not give up a lot of long plays, but we saw over and over again how Washington made defenses look silly last year, getting open deep.

It's all up to Ben tonight. The Steelers can take one bad mistake from him, but with each additional mistake, we'll need a big special teams play or defensive score to stay ahead.

This is the sixth straight time the Super Bowl champions have opened up the season at home on Thursday night, and even though the game is always scheduled against a tough opponent, the champs are 5-0 so far with this setup. I expect the same tonight, leading to a 20-10 Steeler win.