Diving Into the AFC Playoff Scenarios Tuesday, December 22, 2009

(Note: I first wrote all this as a fanpost at SBNation. Then I copy and pasted it here.)

(If your're only interested in the ultimate conclusions of these scenarios, scroll down to the bold text at the bottom.)

The Steelers may still qualify for the playoffs! Since I spent a while thinking this through yesterday, I thought I'd share my understanding of our situation for anyone interested in who we really need to cheer for and how much it all matters to the Steelers. All this assumes the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Dolphins. Scenarios exist in which the Steelers could lose to the Ravens and still qualify for the post-season, but literally 10 out of 10 games would have to go our way. Not likely. So, assuming the Steelers finish 9-7, there is good news:

1. If 4 out of 4 games go our way this week, we control our own destiny. That means HOU, JAX, NYJ, and DEN losing at MIA, NE, IND, and PHI, respectively. All four teams are road underdogs, although it remains to be seen how long Peyton and company will play against NYJ.
   
2. No matter what happens this week, if PIT wins, PIT cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even if all four of those games go against us, there will still be a chance for us to proceed given the right Week 17 outcomes.
   
3. If we win, we have a great chance of being in the SNF game next week. NFC scenarios are unlikely to be 100% sure to decide playoff spots. If we control our own destiny as per point 1, we'll likely be on SNF. But even if NYJ won, MIA would then control their own destiny and we would play on SNF for that reason.
   
4. There is no "one game" or "one team" that we need to go our way. Any ONE of the following teams could win out and we could still qualify: DEN, JAX, NYJ, HOU, TEN. Also, BAL could win in week 17 and we can still qualify. We are not dependant on any one team.

Having said that, some games matter more than others, and there are many teams in better positions than us. Our advantage is that none of those teams are very good.

There are really two tiers of teams to get past: BAL/DEN at 8-6 and JAX/NYJ/MIA/HOU/TEN at 7-7. The more teams we can get past in one "tier," the more breathing room we have in the other tier. There are only two spots, so at the end of the day we have to get past all but one of these teams. However, there are many ways to accomplish this feat.

Let's first look at the 7-7 tier. MIA plays HOU and PIT, so not all teams can win out. But if they could, their order in playoff tiebreakers would look like this (conference record in parenthesis): JAX (8-4), MIA (7-5), NYJ (7-5), HOU (6-6), PIT (6-6), TEN (5-7). MIA finishes ahead of NYJ based on season sweep, HOU finishes ahead of PIT based on common opponents. When you look at this list, things look like they're in bad shape, but keep these things in mind:

1. PIT can eliminate MIA in week 17 with a win.
   
2. All these teams are 7-7 and have two chances to lose. Odds are the teams will be split among 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 at the end of the year, because they're all pretty average. We're assuming PIT is one of the 9-7 teams.
   
3. Finally, these "standings" are not carved in stone and can change based on how the chips fall these last two weeks and how the DEN/BAL games go.
   

Now certainly, PIT is stuck behind JAX and NYJ. If both teams win out, the Steelers have no shot. But if one of them lose a game, we have a shot, and if both of them lose just one game, we are practically at the head of the class! That is because there are multiple scenarios in which HOU can finish behind PIT despite both teams winning out.

For this reason, I'll call NYJ, JAX, and HOU the "Little 3." If we can pass all three, we are dependent on very little as far as DEN/BAL, and only need one of them to lose one game out of the three we're not involved in. Keep in mind: These are not very good teams. One of them is likely to lose.

Even if we only pass two of the Little 3, there are still opportunities to make the playoffs if BAL and DEN really blow it.

Obviously, to pass JAX or NYJ, we need them to lose a game this week or next week. NYJ could actually win the division if they win out, but in that case, NE would take their spot in the wildcard chase ahead of us, so it's moot for the Steelers.

For HOU, even if they win out, then if TEN wins out too, TEN will jump ahead of HOU within the division. Wildcard ties are broke first within the division, so in that case TEN would eliminate HOU and then we would win a tiebreaker over TEN. Besides that, if HOU and PIT finished at 9-7 and TEN loses a game, and then DEN beats PHI but loses to KC, PIT could get in in that situation as well, and BAL's game against HOU would become irrelevant. For a PIT/HOU/DEN tiebreaker, it would come down to Strength of Victory. Right now, DEN has the edge over PIT, but if some otherwise irrelevant games went our way, we could jump them. (I wouldn't attempt calculate this unless it is still a possibility next week!) If we ended up in that tiebreaker, BAL's game would become irrelevant because if they win, the Strength of Victory determines the 6th seed, and if BAL loses, SoV determines the 5th seed and if the Steelers lose SoV to DEN, they would then lose to HOU based on common schedule.

In sum, we need to jump ahead of at least two of the LIttle 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), and ideally, all 3. This would mean those teams losing a game, although in HOU's case, there are other possibilities to jump ahead of them (TEN winning out or that complicated paragraph above). If all three are eliminated, we only need to climb ahead of EITHER BAL or DEN. If only two are eliminated, we must climb ahead of both.

So let's jump back to BAL's and DEN's games for a moment. If we beat BAL, they can beat OAK and tie us at 9-7, but would finish ahead of us in any playoff scenario because they finish ahead of us in the division due to division record. Finishing ahead of Baltimore is simple: They must lose at OAK in week 17. This isn't as far fetched as it seems, as OAK now has 5 victories and even Jamarcus Russell has now contributed to a win.

However, as I just stated, if we jump ahead of all three of the LIttle 3, we don't need to finish ahead of BAL. In that case, we could alternatively jump ahead of DEN, in which case they would have to lose just one game: @PHI or vs. KC. PHI is playing very well right now and has not yet clinched the division. (And Denver does not look good.)

So, reviewing, if we pass all of the Little 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), only one of BAL/OAK's 3 games have to go our way in order to qualify for a wildcard spot. If we pass only two of the Little 3, we need to pass both BAL and DEN by having BAL lose to OAK and having DEN lose one of their games (in most cases).

Passing the Little 3 means having them lose a game, except for HOU, which needs to lose a game or have TEN win out, OR if we end up in a 3-way tie with HOU and DEN, we could advance based on Strength of Victory if certain games go our way. This would happen if DEN beat PHI but lost to KC (if those two games were switched around, DEN would win 3-way-tiebreaker based on 7-5 conference schedule and HOU would be ahead of us due to common opponents tiebreaker).

Having thought all this through, I'd estimate the following odds of qualifying for the postseason for the wildcard contenders, assuming for each team that it won out:

BAL and DEN; 100%

JAX: 85%

MIA: 75%

NYJ: 70%

PIT: 60%

HOU: 45%

TEN:5%

The odds may seem high, but keep in mind that many of these teams will lose the next two weeks, eliminating themselves and helping out the teams who manage to win. TEN is in bad shape. The only teams they beat in tiebreakers are HOU and MIA. Otherwise, they need all but one of the following things to happen: BAL to lose twice, DEN to lose twice, JAX to lose at least once, NYJ to lose at least once, and PIT to beat BAL but lose to MIA. That means they MUST have 4 of 5 games go their way, PLUS have JAX and NYJ to each lose once. (Or have 5 of 5 go their way and have either JAX or NYJ lose once.) Makes all these analysts saying that "TEN could be dangerous!" seem silly since, while they're playing well, the Titans have almost no shot to qualify for January football.

So, first of all, Go Steelers! Second of all, BOO Baltimore! Thirdly, Boo Denver! Finally, Boo HOU/Boo JAX/Boo NYJ/Go TEN!

Another One Bites the Dust Thursday, December 3, 2009

Just saw this on umasshoops.com: Hofstra just cut their football team.

Northeastern cutting football, while it did piss me off, was by no means a surprise. They were a terrible program which played on a high school field (Massachusetts High School, not Texas High School). Hofstra is a shock. I'm too shocked to be upset by it. That's two schools who dropped football in two weeks. Hofstra beat UMass at home their last game. While listening to it, I honestly thought to myself "Hofstra's only in Long Island. It'd be a hike but next time UMass plays there, I'm going." Now I guess I can't. Worse, there are now two schools (BU and Hofstra) who can claim they beat UMass in their final game as a program.

The CAA North is now without a full time CAA member. I'm extremely worried about the future of UNH, Maine, URI and especially UMass football. The four of us are all we got left, and I don't know that we (UMass) can trust them (the other three) to keep football. As a result, I don't know that I trust UMass to keep football.

I never make signs, but I fully planned on bringing a huge one to Matthews Arena (home of NU hockey) January 10th saying "WE HAVE FOOTBALL!" or something to that extent. I don't know how true that statement will be then.

I hope I'm overreacting.

EDIT: UMass AD John McCutcheon says the football program is safe. I emailed him before reading this asking what we could do to ensure it's safety. I encourage all other UMass fans (and Steeler fans...we did give you Mark Whipple) to do the same. Here's the email address:

jmccutch@admin.umass.edu