Don't Panic: Even 0-2 Teams Make Playoffs Tuesday, September 15, 2009

How much does Week 1 matter? In the last eight seasons, the eventual Super Bowl winner has been just 4-4 on opening day. (On the other hand, the seven eventual champions before that were 7-0.)

Every year, 0-1 teams go on to make the playoffs, even really bad week 1 teams like the 2003 Patriots. In fact, even 0-2 teams make the playoffs almost every year, such as the 2008 Chargers, 2007 Giants, 2006 Chiefs, the 2003 Eagles, and the 2002 Steelers. All those teams but the Chiefs even went on to win a playoff game.

Houston is a a sleeper bust! The Jets are playoff contenders! Baltimore has a dynamic offense! Cincinnati is helpless on offense! The Broncos are in the playoff hunt! Brett Favre is a game manager! The Bears made a huge mistake acquiring Jay Cutler!

These are all statements that most would have disagreed with a few days ago. One game goes by and we are freaking out.

Week 1, more than any other week, is incredibly misleading. Teams are getting into a rhythm. Teams are making a gameplan without having a solid idea about what their opponent is doing. And, worst of all, with no other games to evaluate, there's a matter of opponent strength and small sample size.

Of the exclamated conclusions above, only one or two will turn out to be true, and even one of the 0-1 teams who lose this coming week will likely be in the playoffs. My money's on the Bears.

2009 Post-season Predictions Thursday, September 10, 2009

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers
AFC Wildcards: Bengals, Texans

Notes: More people are jumping on the Bengals bandwagon but I've always believed Marvin Lewis isn't as bad as some say, and a healthy Carson Palmer can't hurt. The Bengals get to play the entire AFC West, too.

The Patriots will have a great offense, of course, but I'm sick of hearing how it will be as good as two years ago. The likelihood of any offense being that good is very low. Also, why do people laud the Patriots for every single personnel move they make? All I hear is what great use they're going to make out of Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway. Whaa??? What other team could add these two players and actually be praised for it? Taylor is 33 and Galloway is, wait for it.... Thirty-seven. We praise the Patriots because of our perception of them, not because we've actually looked at their decisions.

It's the same with Richard Seymour. We're praising them for getting a potential top-10 pick, but haven't they hurt their team for this year? Yet no one's cut a win off their projected totals. Besides that, if Seymour never shows up in Oakland, there's a good chance the Pats will have to give the pick back (since there was no physical performed on Seymour), and then they will just have a mess on their hands.

I really wish I could pick the Chargers to miss the playoffs, but their division is so bad, it's impossible. However, I do not at all understand the constant fawning and graveling people do at the feet of this team every preseason. They have a nice offense, but all they have on defense is a playmaker here or there. I vow that the Norv Factor will come to pass this year and this team will be embarrassed on a regular basis by non-division opponents. It starts next week against Baltimore.

NFC Divison Winners: Eagles, Saints, 49ers, Bears
NFC Wildcards: Panthers, Packers

Notes: The popular perception of the Vikings mystifies me. I think people start to spout an opinion and it sounds nifty, so it spreads everywhere. The Vikings apparently have had the most talented roster in the NFC for two years. But outside of big-name players, do they really have depth and talent? Or is it just name recognition? (Obviously AP is the best RB in the league.) Besides that, coaching will always be their achilles heel.

Meanwhile, while the Vikings haven't had an 11-win season since 2001, the Panthers have done that three times, have won lots of playoff games and have a solid, steady coach, and yet almost no one is picking them to make the playoffs. Some say Delhomme left a bad taste in their mouth due to his season-ending performance but... what, Bret Favre didn't?!

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots
NFC Championship: Saints over Bears
Super Bowl Champion: Steelers

Notes: The AFC is easy: The Pats and Steelers have the two best rosters and head coaches in the NFL. I picked the Steelers to make the Super Bowl, of course, because I'm a homer.

To me, the Saints are a proven commodity. They averaged 29 points per game. TWENTY-NINE POINTS! Their putrid defense HAS to regress to the mean and become merely below average. If they do, it should mean 11 wins. If they can get a couple home playoff games, they can go far in the playoffs.

2009 NFC North Predictions Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Two to go! The NFC North, whose teams all play the AFC North and NFC West this year:

1. Chicago Bears - I hate to say it, but Jay Cutler looks good. Real good. I don't mind Kyle Orton, but the guy can't throw the football like Cutler.
2. Green Bay Packers - The second best quarterback leads to the second-best record in the divison.
3. Minnesota Vikings - Favre is unlikely to make it through the season. The Williams' may get suspended at some point as well. Childress is not a good coach.
4. Detroit Lions - No explanation necesssary.