Diving Into the AFC Playoff Scenarios Tuesday, December 22, 2009

(Note: I first wrote all this as a fanpost at SBNation. Then I copy and pasted it here.)

(If your're only interested in the ultimate conclusions of these scenarios, scroll down to the bold text at the bottom.)

The Steelers may still qualify for the playoffs! Since I spent a while thinking this through yesterday, I thought I'd share my understanding of our situation for anyone interested in who we really need to cheer for and how much it all matters to the Steelers. All this assumes the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Dolphins. Scenarios exist in which the Steelers could lose to the Ravens and still qualify for the post-season, but literally 10 out of 10 games would have to go our way. Not likely. So, assuming the Steelers finish 9-7, there is good news:

1. If 4 out of 4 games go our way this week, we control our own destiny. That means HOU, JAX, NYJ, and DEN losing at MIA, NE, IND, and PHI, respectively. All four teams are road underdogs, although it remains to be seen how long Peyton and company will play against NYJ.
   
2. No matter what happens this week, if PIT wins, PIT cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even if all four of those games go against us, there will still be a chance for us to proceed given the right Week 17 outcomes.
   
3. If we win, we have a great chance of being in the SNF game next week. NFC scenarios are unlikely to be 100% sure to decide playoff spots. If we control our own destiny as per point 1, we'll likely be on SNF. But even if NYJ won, MIA would then control their own destiny and we would play on SNF for that reason.
   
4. There is no "one game" or "one team" that we need to go our way. Any ONE of the following teams could win out and we could still qualify: DEN, JAX, NYJ, HOU, TEN. Also, BAL could win in week 17 and we can still qualify. We are not dependant on any one team.

Having said that, some games matter more than others, and there are many teams in better positions than us. Our advantage is that none of those teams are very good.

There are really two tiers of teams to get past: BAL/DEN at 8-6 and JAX/NYJ/MIA/HOU/TEN at 7-7. The more teams we can get past in one "tier," the more breathing room we have in the other tier. There are only two spots, so at the end of the day we have to get past all but one of these teams. However, there are many ways to accomplish this feat.

Let's first look at the 7-7 tier. MIA plays HOU and PIT, so not all teams can win out. But if they could, their order in playoff tiebreakers would look like this (conference record in parenthesis): JAX (8-4), MIA (7-5), NYJ (7-5), HOU (6-6), PIT (6-6), TEN (5-7). MIA finishes ahead of NYJ based on season sweep, HOU finishes ahead of PIT based on common opponents. When you look at this list, things look like they're in bad shape, but keep these things in mind:

1. PIT can eliminate MIA in week 17 with a win.
   
2. All these teams are 7-7 and have two chances to lose. Odds are the teams will be split among 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 at the end of the year, because they're all pretty average. We're assuming PIT is one of the 9-7 teams.
   
3. Finally, these "standings" are not carved in stone and can change based on how the chips fall these last two weeks and how the DEN/BAL games go.
   

Now certainly, PIT is stuck behind JAX and NYJ. If both teams win out, the Steelers have no shot. But if one of them lose a game, we have a shot, and if both of them lose just one game, we are practically at the head of the class! That is because there are multiple scenarios in which HOU can finish behind PIT despite both teams winning out.

For this reason, I'll call NYJ, JAX, and HOU the "Little 3." If we can pass all three, we are dependent on very little as far as DEN/BAL, and only need one of them to lose one game out of the three we're not involved in. Keep in mind: These are not very good teams. One of them is likely to lose.

Even if we only pass two of the Little 3, there are still opportunities to make the playoffs if BAL and DEN really blow it.

Obviously, to pass JAX or NYJ, we need them to lose a game this week or next week. NYJ could actually win the division if they win out, but in that case, NE would take their spot in the wildcard chase ahead of us, so it's moot for the Steelers.

For HOU, even if they win out, then if TEN wins out too, TEN will jump ahead of HOU within the division. Wildcard ties are broke first within the division, so in that case TEN would eliminate HOU and then we would win a tiebreaker over TEN. Besides that, if HOU and PIT finished at 9-7 and TEN loses a game, and then DEN beats PHI but loses to KC, PIT could get in in that situation as well, and BAL's game against HOU would become irrelevant. For a PIT/HOU/DEN tiebreaker, it would come down to Strength of Victory. Right now, DEN has the edge over PIT, but if some otherwise irrelevant games went our way, we could jump them. (I wouldn't attempt calculate this unless it is still a possibility next week!) If we ended up in that tiebreaker, BAL's game would become irrelevant because if they win, the Strength of Victory determines the 6th seed, and if BAL loses, SoV determines the 5th seed and if the Steelers lose SoV to DEN, they would then lose to HOU based on common schedule.

In sum, we need to jump ahead of at least two of the LIttle 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), and ideally, all 3. This would mean those teams losing a game, although in HOU's case, there are other possibilities to jump ahead of them (TEN winning out or that complicated paragraph above). If all three are eliminated, we only need to climb ahead of EITHER BAL or DEN. If only two are eliminated, we must climb ahead of both.

So let's jump back to BAL's and DEN's games for a moment. If we beat BAL, they can beat OAK and tie us at 9-7, but would finish ahead of us in any playoff scenario because they finish ahead of us in the division due to division record. Finishing ahead of Baltimore is simple: They must lose at OAK in week 17. This isn't as far fetched as it seems, as OAK now has 5 victories and even Jamarcus Russell has now contributed to a win.

However, as I just stated, if we jump ahead of all three of the LIttle 3, we don't need to finish ahead of BAL. In that case, we could alternatively jump ahead of DEN, in which case they would have to lose just one game: @PHI or vs. KC. PHI is playing very well right now and has not yet clinched the division. (And Denver does not look good.)

So, reviewing, if we pass all of the Little 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), only one of BAL/OAK's 3 games have to go our way in order to qualify for a wildcard spot. If we pass only two of the Little 3, we need to pass both BAL and DEN by having BAL lose to OAK and having DEN lose one of their games (in most cases).

Passing the Little 3 means having them lose a game, except for HOU, which needs to lose a game or have TEN win out, OR if we end up in a 3-way tie with HOU and DEN, we could advance based on Strength of Victory if certain games go our way. This would happen if DEN beat PHI but lost to KC (if those two games were switched around, DEN would win 3-way-tiebreaker based on 7-5 conference schedule and HOU would be ahead of us due to common opponents tiebreaker).

Having thought all this through, I'd estimate the following odds of qualifying for the postseason for the wildcard contenders, assuming for each team that it won out:

BAL and DEN; 100%

JAX: 85%

MIA: 75%

NYJ: 70%

PIT: 60%

HOU: 45%

TEN:5%

The odds may seem high, but keep in mind that many of these teams will lose the next two weeks, eliminating themselves and helping out the teams who manage to win. TEN is in bad shape. The only teams they beat in tiebreakers are HOU and MIA. Otherwise, they need all but one of the following things to happen: BAL to lose twice, DEN to lose twice, JAX to lose at least once, NYJ to lose at least once, and PIT to beat BAL but lose to MIA. That means they MUST have 4 of 5 games go their way, PLUS have JAX and NYJ to each lose once. (Or have 5 of 5 go their way and have either JAX or NYJ lose once.) Makes all these analysts saying that "TEN could be dangerous!" seem silly since, while they're playing well, the Titans have almost no shot to qualify for January football.

So, first of all, Go Steelers! Second of all, BOO Baltimore! Thirdly, Boo Denver! Finally, Boo HOU/Boo JAX/Boo NYJ/Go TEN!

Another One Bites the Dust Thursday, December 3, 2009

Just saw this on umasshoops.com: Hofstra just cut their football team.

Northeastern cutting football, while it did piss me off, was by no means a surprise. They were a terrible program which played on a high school field (Massachusetts High School, not Texas High School). Hofstra is a shock. I'm too shocked to be upset by it. That's two schools who dropped football in two weeks. Hofstra beat UMass at home their last game. While listening to it, I honestly thought to myself "Hofstra's only in Long Island. It'd be a hike but next time UMass plays there, I'm going." Now I guess I can't. Worse, there are now two schools (BU and Hofstra) who can claim they beat UMass in their final game as a program.

The CAA North is now without a full time CAA member. I'm extremely worried about the future of UNH, Maine, URI and especially UMass football. The four of us are all we got left, and I don't know that we (UMass) can trust them (the other three) to keep football. As a result, I don't know that I trust UMass to keep football.

I never make signs, but I fully planned on bringing a huge one to Matthews Arena (home of NU hockey) January 10th saying "WE HAVE FOOTBALL!" or something to that extent. I don't know how true that statement will be then.

I hope I'm overreacting.

EDIT: UMass AD John McCutcheon says the football program is safe. I emailed him before reading this asking what we could do to ensure it's safety. I encourage all other UMass fans (and Steeler fans...we did give you Mark Whipple) to do the same. Here's the email address:

jmccutch@admin.umass.edu

Northeastern University Cuts Football Sunday, November 22, 2009

Northeastern University has apparently cut football. It's all over twitter and a few posters on UMasshoops.com I trust claim to have the official press release. As I'm typing this blog post, the Boston CBS affiliate, WBZ, just confirmed it.

This upsets me greatly. As much as I hate Northeastern (and I hate them a lot), the fate of the Huskies and the Minutemen football teams are not independent. Northeastern is was a short road trip every other year, possibly the shortest trip, and I'd assume, one of the least expensive.

My question becomes, where does it end? UMass is by far one of the most successful FCS teams in the Northeast, in terms of both wins and attendance (ok... so maybe not wins this year at 5-6, but we're talking historically), and we have alumni who are always dying to cut football in hopes that the extra funding will make basketball a power house. I'm willing to bet alumni who want to cut football are more numerous at the other northern CAA schools, and I wonder if Northeastern cutting it is the first of many dominoes.

Case in point, a UMass beat writer named Matt Vautour posted the following article recently about copying something BC and Notre Dame do pretty successfully. Everyone knows about the football game the two play, but they also play a hockey game the night before in the same school the football game will take place, and the attendance is boosted greatly at hockey since all the football fans are there anyway. Long story short, the writer suggested Hockey East and CAA football did the same thing in hopes of increasing attendance for both (Note to Hockey East and CAA, I'm waiting for something like this before I go all the way up to Orono. Just saying.). I posted this on a college hockey board I frequent, and the responses from Northeastern fans was "we hate our team, they're an embarrassment, cut them." The response from Maine and UNH fans was "since when have we had a football team?"

Will Maine and New Hampshire keep football if no one cares about it? What about Rhode Island? Hofstra? If these teams all get rid of it, who is there left for UMass to play?

It might be time to seriously consider making the jump to the MAC/Sunbelt/CUSA/Whatever FBS conference will take us. Yeah, it's pretty dumb playing for TheBigFootballBlog.com Bowl (no offense to that excellent web page), but I'd rather be playing football in a meaningless bowl game (or trying to get to a meaningless bowl game) than not playing football at all. Just saying.

As a side note, I'm upset with Northeastern. When I was at UMass, the football conference was called the Atlantic 10, which is the conference UMass plays in for all sports. Rhode Island and Richmond were the only other A-10 teams in the conference (compared to 3 America East teams, 5 CAA teams and 1 Big East team), so it didn't really make sense, but I was happy with it. Then Northeastern switched from America East in all sports to CAA in all sports. That gave the CAA 6 football teams (NU, Delaware, JMU, Townson, William & Mary, and Hofstra) enough to make it's own league. Immediately, the CAA teams left the Atlantic 10 conference and formed their own conference. They then robbed the A10 further, luring Richmond away. This killed the A10, as you need 6 members. Thankfully, the CAA invited the rest of the A-10 into the conference, and without much of a choice, all accepted.

So, why does it matter? A rose by any other name will still have thorns, right? WRONG. The CAA is a Virginian based conference (for the most part). By CAA rules (EDITED BASED ON jackman's comments), full CAA members get in the football conference automatically until 2017. Old Dominion, in Virginia, took advantage of this and started up a program and will join the South in '11. Not a big deal. Georgia State (guess where that is), starts up a program in 2010 and will also take advantage of this, will join the North in '12. Big deal.

Why put Georgia State in the North? Well, because it is an expensive plane trip for all of us in the conference. The Southern teams don't want to take a plane to Georgia every other year. As they have the voting rights (the CAA voted to let Georgia Southern in as a full time member, the football only affiliates had no say), they're sticking us with the team they voted to accept. I think it's revenge for the Civil War or something.

It's Northeastern's fault, and they're bailing on us without having to pay for them at all. Northeastern University is officially dead to me.

Patriots @ Colts Sunday, November 15, 2009

Any other coach in the NFL would be justifiably fired for losing that game. It's now officially the worst coaching job I've ever seen. Even though to me it looked like Faulk caught the ball past the first down mark, it's still terrible, especially knowing you couldn't challenge cause you ran out of timeouts. I just watched Belichick's post game press conference. He said he was trying to win the game. That's pretty much all I want to say right now about the game.

Larry Johnson to Green Bay makes the most sense. Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Houston Texans, who made more sense than anyone else for Larry Johnson, have stated they will not sign him. On Dan Patrick's show yesterday, Larry said he doesn't get to choose where he goes, but someone with at least a .500 record makes sense. After all, Larry's team problems had a lot to do with the Chiefs losing every week, much like Randy Moss with past teams. And only a strong organization can take in Larry considering his actions towards women and his homophobic slurs.

Then again, if your team is doing well, why bring in a distraction like Larry Johnson? It only makes sense if you're in serious need of a running back. That's why the Texans made the most sense, since they seem to have little confidence in Slaton and Moats. (Man I'm glad Slaton slipped through my fingers in my fantasy draft this past August.)

That's why I'm wondering why the Steelers' name has been thrown around. They have quality running backs. Even if Parker stinks, they're not going to cut him midseason and Mendenhall and Moore are running and blocking with the best of them. I wonder why the Packers or Giants haven't been mentioned. Both teams are contending but are a little desperate right now, and, in my opinion, either one could use another back. I suppose you could put the Giants in the "quality organization" category that might not be seen signing a character like Johnson. (Besides, I doubt he could maneuver the media there.)

So why not Green Bay? Grant is good but has no one with credibility behind them, and the Packers could certainly use a spark. The Giants could use a spark too, and are on a bye week.

On further review, Wallace outplaying Harvin Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Rookie WR, 1st round pick:
28 receptions, 369 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 39 yards rushing, 6 plays of 20 yards or more

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers WR, 3rd round pick:
25 receptions, 437 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, 43 yards rushing, NINE plays of 20 yards or more, Sunday evening news show personalities with same name: 1

Mike Wallace is the current Rookie of the Year, although you'll hear almost no national media taking notice. Wallace isn't even a starter and he's outplaying Harvin.

Steelers-Broncos Review: Defense shines without starters

The Steelers pounded the Broncos 28-10, and the winning margin would have been wider if not for a couple stupid turnovers when the Steelers were rolling.

Ryan Clark, Lawrence Timmons, Travis Kirschke, and Aaron Smith (IR) were out for the Steelers but the defense didn't miss a beat. Last time we lost DE Aaron Smith to IR in 2007, the defense crumbled. I've been impressed this year, and that's without Ziggy Hood getting much playing time. Nick Eason sured up the DL. The average age of our defensive line is 32, and features guys that have had unremarkable careers. Tomlin, LeBeau and John Mitchell have done incredible jobs there.

The linebackers have come on strong the past couple weeks. I would like to have Timmons healthy but Keyaron Fox is proving he deserves a starting spot too. It's a great problem to have. Harrison was steady as always and LaMarr Woodley is finally waking up from his first half slumber. I'm not sure what Woodley's problem has been. Maybe he had some life-problems that disrupted his play emotionally. He was much better last night. The tackling by everyone on defense was almost textbook perfect.

And of course Tyrone Carter played great in Ryan Clark's absense. We'll be hearing lots from the media this week about what a great "replacement" Clark was, but the national media doesn't realize that Tyrone Carter spends a lot of time on the field even when Clark and Polamalu are both healthy. He's a steady veteran, and Clark's position is obviously more replaceable than Troy's. Good thing since Clark is a free agent after the season. But expect Ryan Mundy, not Carter, to take over starting duties in 2010.

Roethlisberger and Ward continued their dominance, Rashard Mendenhall has (thankfully) proved me wrong, Santonio had a great game and Mike Wallace would garner rookie of the year consideration if Percy Harvin wasn't tearing it up in Minnesota. But the story of the offense has been the offensive line. These guys are so improved from last year. They are now a strength and a component of the team that can be relied on. Max Starks deserves to start in the pro bowl at left tackle.

The special teams have regressed to 2007 quality, but overall the Steelers are playing great football right now and look better than the 2008 Steelers who dominated on defense but were often impotent on offense. A lot of that has to do with Mendenhall, who still has room to improve but has effectively ended Willie Parker's career.

No time to rest, though, as the Steelers face the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals in five days. I have confidence that the Steelers are the better team but they need to play their best football to make sure they don't give Palmer and his troops a chance at the end like last time around. It's the most important game of the season by far.

Hats off to Brandon Marshall, who cannot be contained. The rest of the Broncos did not impress. The defense looked good in the first half and fell apart. Worst of all, in post-game quotes the Broncos sound like they're merely conceding that the Steelers are a great team and are not pointing the finger at themselves and the ways they need to improve to be true contenders. It looks to me like the true AFC contenders are the big three (NE, IND, PIT) plus the Steelers' little brothers in the AFC North (CIN, BAL).

Belichick: 10 Teams Get It, 22 Don't Friday, November 6, 2009

Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports interviewed Patriots Coach Bill Belichick on everything football.

The whole interview is really interesting, coming from a guy who seems to be interested in nothing BUT football. My favorite part was the end, where Belichick talked about Jimmy Johnson's theory on what it takes to win in the NFL:

“You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors.” Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front."

I really like the theory, and perhaps more than any other sport, in the NFL, there are organizations who get it, and organizations who don't. Here's my list of the 10 teams who get it, in order: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York Giants, Tennessee, Denver, Miami (under Parcells)... Wow, that's it. I could only find nine, and the last two are a stretch.

I suppose if Cowher, Holmgren, Gruden, or Shanahan return next year, we could see more teams who know what they're doing.

UMass Recap Sunday, November 1, 2009

Sorry I haven't posted in a while.

When I last showed up, UMass was in controll of its own destiny, having just given the Wildcats their first conference loss and were about to travel to Richmond to (hopefully) give them their first loss. It didn't quite work out that way. I only listened to the first quarter, but I'm told the defense played great, but the offense played terribly. Havens got benched in favor of red shirt senior Scott Woodward as a result of throwing too many interceptions and UMass lost 30-something to 12. There was talk about starting Woodward yesterday on umasshoops.com, but Coach Morris stuck with his guy.

Yesterday, the game was on TV, which was great since it's in Orono, Maine which I've never been to. Why? Because I'm told it takes like 6 hours to get there. I'm waiting for the Hockey Team and Football team to both be there in the same weekend. Then I figure I could get a hotel and make the trip worth my while.

Anyway, the defense played ok, the offense played terrible again. Havens was benched again at halftime after throwing 1 pick and losing a fumble. Woodward didn't play too much better, throwing 3 picks (though two of those were in the last couple of minutes on fourth downs where he was just trying to avoid a sack and keep UMass playoff hopes alive). Maine beat UMass 19-9. The only bright spot was UMass picked off a 2pt conversion and returned it for 2pts of its own.

UMass is now 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the CAA. While I suppose it is possible to make the playoffs at 7-4 (I think UNH was a 7-4 playoff team a couple of years ago), it's highly unlikely. Especially cause the Football team hasn't won a road game all year. The one quality win is against UNH. As JMU stinks this year (though they just beat Delaware yesterday to get their first conference win), there aren't any quality opponents left. I just don't think the resume is good enough for the post season.

UMass clearly has an issue at quarterback. As much as I like him, Havens has thrown 14 interception to 8 touch downs. That's not getting it done. It doesn't really matter what Woodward does, as he's gone next year, but he has 5 interceptions to 2 touchdowns. The other quarterbacks on the bench haven't played yet.

I hate to say it, but it's time to look ahead to next year. Is Havens the quarterback of the future (as in, next year)? If so, play him in hopes he learns not to turn the ball over every other possession.

If not, I'd play Octavious Hawkins, a red shirt sophomore UMass has, able to run really well. You'd have to run a more option style offense, or at least put a few option plays in for him. I don't like the option. I find it boring. But I dislike losing more than I dislike the option, and if it gives UMass the best chance to win, I'm all for implementing it. You have to play him to see what you got.

If neither of these two are the solution, UMass does have some freshman I've never heard of on the bench. They could give him a shot. The only other alternative is to recruit a new quarterback, either an FBS transfer or else a freshman out of high school.

In the mean time, no matter who is at quarterback, I think UMass should also focus on running the ball more. Both Tony Nelson and Jon Hernandez are among the conference's leading rushers. Use them. Run the ball down the defense's throats, keep possession of the ball, and rely on your defense (which has been pretty good) to win field position battles.

Northeastern is next week. They stink. UMass should beat them easily.

Manning on Top, Big Ben an Anomaly in Quarterback Rankings Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Below are my promised NFL quarterback rankings from 1 to 50, with comments. I decided to go Bill Simmons on ya'll and present them in 12 tiers from worst to first. Next to each quarterback I've listed his current team and his first year out of college.

Rankings are based on ability as of right now. Rankings do not take age or potential into account, although old guys are likely to move down quickly in the future. Quarterbacks are certainly eligible to move up with improved performances but this is how I see things as of this moment. "Rings" are not taken into account, although the ability to perform when it matters is certainly relevant.

I started with a list of current starters plus guys who are most likely to start at some point this year due to injuries or benching. Then I added in a couple more guys such as Troy Smith and Nate Davis whom I am personally interested in. Therefore, guys like Mark Brunell and Jon Kitna are not ranked.

Established Disasters

50. Michael Vick (Eagles, 2001) - Vick could certainly move up in the future, but right now there is no ungodly reason he should take snaps as a regular quarterback in an actual game, having been in prison for almost two years.

49. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders, 2007) - Russell's struggles, inaccuracy and poor work ethic are well-documented, and everyone is down on him. Hard to imagine he'll be in the league two years from today.

48. Matt Leinart (Cardinals, 2006) - Old Man Warner could certainly beat out a lot of current starters, but when Leinart has come in even on mop up duty, he's been an unqualified disaster.

47. Alex Smith (49ers, 2005) - Smith's career was a misfire right from the start and is destined to go down in history with the Couches, Carrs and Bollers of the world, not to mention the other A. Smith bust, Akili.

46. Chris Simms (Broncos, 2003) - Was liked by a lot of analysts early on, but the poor guy lost a lot of time to unlucky health problems. Nowadys his place on NFL rosters rests only his past potential and not current ability.

45. Vince Young (Titans, 2006) - Young believes he can work hard, be a backup for a while and eventually recover his career. Don't count on it.

44. Rex Grossman (Texans, 2003) - The first quarterback on our list to make it to a Super Bowl, Grossman vs. Manning was the most ridiculous QB mismatch in Super Bowl history. Somehow, Grossman is still hanging onto a roster spot, wondering what could have become of his career had he not been injured so much his first couple seasons.

Not quite dead yet

43. Derek Anderson (Browns, 2005) - In 2007, Anderson's poor accuracy was saved by career years by Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards in addition to an unbelievably easy schedule. Since then, his true colors have shown, but his teammates seem to like him a lot, so I can't quite pronounce his career a failure just yet.

42. Trent Edwards (Bills, 2007) - Many were high on Edwards before the season. Don't ask me why.

41. Brady Quinn (Browns, 2007) - Congratulations, Brady, you're the best quarterback of the 2007 NFL Draft class! It's difficult to evaluate Quinn because he's been on the field for very few snaps. However, I haven't heard Browns coaches or front office types say anything positive about him other than "Well, Anderson sucks, so let's try Quinn." Not exactly a vote of confidence.

40. Seneca Wallace (Seahawks, 2003) - Despite his long NFL tenure, he has very few snaps as a QB but I put him on this list because I do think he could move up a couple tiers in the right situation.

Clearly backups at best, but paid like real quarterbacks

39. Dan Orlovsky (Texans, 2005) - With Shaub's injury history, we're likely to see Orlovsky in some meaningful games this season. At that point, he'll swiftly reveal whether he's got real ability or if that self-induced safety was characteristic of his play.

38. Sage Rosenfels (Vikings, 2001) - Would he have gotten the start over Jackson if Favre hadn't showed up? Probably, since he was favored by VP of Player Personnel Rick Spielman. Favre's arrival signaled the demise of his last real chance to be an NFL starter.

Question marks with potential

37, 36, 35. Chad Henne (Dolphins, 2008), Josh Freeman (Bucs, 2009), Josh Johnson (Bucs, 2008) - I have absolutely no idea about these guys, and neither can anyone else except perhaps the actual coaching staff of the Dolphins and Bucs.

34. Nate Davis (49ers, 2009) - Davis could be a future playmaker in this league. He was incredible at Ball State and MAC QBs have a decent track record in the NFL (all things considered). Many in SF see him as the heir apparent. Plus he went to Bellaire High School in Ohio, my alma mater's biggest rival. I like the guy.

33. Matt Stafford (Lions 2009) - The biggest strike against him is that he plays for the Lions. Other than that, I'm clueless, but he was great in college.

32. Mark Sanchez (Jets, 2009) - He's looked good and bad, but so far his team has been a lot better than him, leading to a 3-2 record. We'll see. Another college star, though that means little.

In the perfect situation, the ceiling is "playoffs"

31. Tavaris Jackson (Vikings, 2006) - We've seen what Tavaris offers. With an uber-talented team, he can take you to the playoffs, but that's pretty much his ceiling. That will be a theme with all the guys in this group. By the way, what does it say about the quality of quarterback play in your league when Tavaris Jackson is the 31st best signal caller in the league? Not good.

30. Marc Bulger (Rams, 2000) - He was once quite good, but that's when his team was top ten talent. Nowadays, he's worse, and his team is at rock bottom.

29. Daunte Culpepper (Lions, 1999) - Similarly Daunte had a statistically mind boggling season in 2004 (4700 yards, 39 TDs) but the offensive talent certainly helped. Nevertheless, the Vikings never won two playoff games in one season while he was the quarterback, thus the playoff ceiling. He's never been the same since his injury.

28. Byron Leftwich (Bucs, 2003) - Just replace the three names above with Byron and you have the same description. At times, when the schedule was easy and when Fred Taylor and co. had it together, he had it together. But even then, a deep playoff run was out of the question. As recently as last year, he looked good with a championship-caliber Steeler team, but with the Bucs, we see what happens when the talent around him doesn't match up.

27. Troy Smith (Ravens, 2007) - Troy is the one guy on this tier who could move way up if he got the chance. Should've started for Baltimore last year, but his sickness gave Flacco a shot. I liked Smith better than most coming out of college and I still think he can be a good starter in the NFL.

26. Shaun Hill (49ers, 2002) - Shaun Hill has been maxing out his potential this year so far with the 49ers. If all goes well, he could take them to the divisional round, but his talent still rests well within the playoff ceiling range.

Eight average men

25. Jason Campbell (Redskins, 2005) - Campbell went 5 or 6 games last year without an interception out of the gate. He's always had below average (and overpaid) talent around him. Although nothing special, given the right circumstances I could see him moving up two tiers one day. He should've been happy when he heard Snyder was trying to trade him; with Snyder in charge, the situation in Washington will never be good.

24. Jake Delhomme (Panthers, 1997) - Our second QB on the list to start a Super Bowl (and lose), Delhomme has captained a lot of winning teams in Charlotte. He's been melting down in recent months, but Kurt Warner has done that and bounced back as much as anyone. He still has the confidence and admiration of his teammates, and I'm willing to give him a few more weeks before bumping him down to "not quite dead yet" status. Once again, its a sad state of QB play in the league when the 24th best option is Jake Delhomme.

23. David Garrard (Jaguars, 2002) - It's funny how fast the media likes to turn on quarterbacks. In 2007 Garrard was thought of as a top 15 QB. Suddenly he's a never-was. The Jaguars have shown some life the last couple weeks, which to me proves that Garrard belongs not in the trash heap or the throne room, but somewhere in the middle.

22. Chad Pennington (Dolphins, 2000) - Pennington may never play again, so this ranking is probably moot. But at his best Pennington was a smart and slithery QB with strong leadership skills. Theoretically, if he can still play, there's no reason those qualities should have faded.

21. Jeff Garcia (Free agent, 1994 CFL/1999 NFL) - Jeff Garcia consistently outplays everyone he replaces. He got the shaft in Oakland. His worst quality is that he's getting quite old, which isn't good for a short QB who makes good use of his athleticism.

20. Kerry Collins (Titans, 1995) - Our list's third Super Bowl QB, Collins also lost the big game in his lone appearance. Opinions will range on Collins and his ability throughout his career, but nowadays he relies solely on accuracy and good decision making, which could help him keep a job for a couple more seasons, especially under a conservative coach like Jeff Fisher.

19. Matt Cassel (Chiefs, 2005) - Cassel is paid better than the #18 man on this list, but was only able to take the formerly 18-1 Patriots to an 11-5 record despite an incredibly easy schedule. The results in KC haven't been good, but the talent around him ain't great either. The college backup's grade currently stands at incomplete.

18. Kyle Orton (Broncos, 2005) - I will never understand why the Bears waffled back and forth between Orton and Grossman for so long. At every opportunity, Orton outplayed the 2003 first round pick. At the very least, one can't deny that Orton is a likable guy who makes good decisions, which are really two of a quarterback's most important qualities. Also, I like Kyle Orton because he looks like a player from the 30s, slingin' touchdowns to Don Hutson.

The Young Stars

17. Joe Flacco (Ravens, 2008) - The star sophomore has taken the next step this season. His game-killing interception in the AFC Championship game likely haunting him, I don't expect a repeat of that kind of mistake this season. No sophomore slump in sight.

16. Matt Ryan (Falcons, 2008) - I was skeptical of Ryan's abilities before the season and expected a sophomore slump. Flaws have shone through but Ryan is clearly the real deal and will lead the Falcons for a long time.

Cagey veterans

15. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks, 1998) - Until a couple weeks ago, I always thought this guy's name was spelled "Hasselback." Amazing. I have no idea what "cagey" veterans means, but all five of these guys have been around for a while and can still get it done. They're all at turning points in their careers, too; they could maintain their skill for a few more seasons, move to elite status, or fall down the ladder. Although Hasselbeck is unlikely to be a star again, he was a top-5 QB for a few years and if not for the anonymity of Seahawks players the many injuries they've sustained lately, he'd be thought of more highly. Hasselbeck has been to a Super Bowl and lost, making mistakes at a couple key moments at Super Bowl XL following questionable penalties.

14. Tony Romo (Cowboys, 2003) - Although he's only been starting since 2006, Romo is older than people realize. He's taken a beating lately from Dallas fans, media, and former players. But to overlook Romo's talent is a big mistake, as he'll have a few great games this year that turn everyone's opinions around. Certainly, if he could prove that bad luck and not shaky confidence is to blame for late season / playoff collapses, he could move up this list.

13. Matt Schaub (Texans, 2004) - I still believe the Texans will have a top-five offense this year, and Shaub is a big reason why. The "cagey veterans" tier features the first six guys on the list who are capable of leading elite offenses, and Schaub is no different. His injury history holds him back from moving up a couple tiers.

12. Carson Palmer (Bengals, 2003) - Considered by many a top 3 QB back in 2005, Palmer has had trouble getting back to stardom since the injury. This ranking is based mostly on his past ability, as he's been jumpy and cautious this season.

11. Eli Manning (Giants, 2004) - As the 11th ranked QB on our list, Eli is the lowest ranked signal caller who has won a Super Bowl. That no lower ranked quarterbacks have won the big game demonstrates that an elite quarterback is a non-negotiable when building a Super Bowl-winning roster. Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer aside, the last 17 SB-winning QBs are Roethlisberger, Mannings, Brady, Warner, Elway, Favre, Young, and Aikman. There are rare exceptions, but if you want to win a Super Bowl, get an elite QB. Everyone's jumping on the Eli bandwagon again lately, but his opponents this year have been well below par. Eli is a guy who will always have some bad games throughout the year, but he has shown he's not intimidated by the big stage.

Old men who still got it

10. Kurt Warner (Cardinals, 1994) - Warner continues to look good this season, although some of us are waiting for the complete breakdown featuring tons of sacks and fumbles. Until that happens, he's a top-15 QB. As long as Warner has weapons, he's as good as anyone, although at his age, he could fall apart at any moment.

9. Brett Favre (Vikings, 1991) - Brett Favre is benefiting from a very talented roster, but with or without it this top-10 all-time QB is still a top-10 quarterback in the NFL today. The injuries from last year are not affecting him. The guy is an attention-whore and and it pains me to say it but he's still getting it done. Favre also won a ring, way back after the 1995 season.

8. Donovan McNabb (Eagles, 1999) - Not as old as Warner or Favre, but much older than the four guys directly in front of him, McNabb has been disrespected by fans, a diva WR and, most recently, his coach throughout the years. Nevertheless, McNabb has stayed steady as a top-10 QB through it all, and as everyone waits for him to fall of the cliff each new year, he keeps winning games and playing well, especially down the stretch in the regular season, with the Eagles going 6-2 in December the past two years and McNabb throwing for 11 TDs and only 2 interceptions during that span.

The future of the NFL

7. Jay Cutler (Bears, 2006) - The NFL should pay close attention to the three guys on this tier, because the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and the three guys in this tier, along with one or two guys from the "Rising stars" and "Question marks with potential" tiers will be the face of the league six years from now. I believe Cutler will always be stuck at the bottom of that elite tier, due mostly to poor leadership skills. Outside of that abortion of a first game against Green Bay, he has impressed me a lot, avoiding sacks by getting rid of the ball quickly while avoiding interceptions by always making the right decision and an accurate throw. At the end of this season, Denver may think it got the best deal in trading Cutler for Orton and picks. But eight years from now, Orton will be lucky to be playing while Cutler will be one of the league's ten best players.

6. Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 2005) - Brett Favre may have beaten the Packers, but Green Bay shouldn't regret their decision a year and a half ago to go with Rodgers over the legend. Rodgers has quietly put up great numbers since he got the starting job. He even put up great numbers against Minnesota despite poor play by his offensive line. Minnesota better take their wins now, because when Favre retires for good or runs out of gas, Aaron Rodgers will slap them silly twice a year for the next decade, Peterson or no Peterson.

5. Philip Rivers (San Diego, 2004) - As a fan, I really dislike Philip Rivers. I dislike his accent and his attitude and his smacktalk. So it pains me to say this, but I believe that by 2016 Rivers will be considered the unchallenged best quarterback in the NFL. Manning will be 40, Brady 39 and Brees 37 (all three will likely still be playing but not at the same level they are now). Roethlisberger will likely be out of the league by then, at age 34. Unless Matt Ryan or Stafford or someone like that surprises me, I think Rivers will be the NFL's #1 star by then. For now, he has to settle in behind two of the top 10 QBs of all time (as well as a couple others who will likely make the Hall of Fame). But eventually he'll surpass them all.

The Anomaly

4. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers, 2004) - There is no better player to spark up a debate on than Ben Roethlisberger. His stats are rarely overwhelming. He's started the same number of games as Eli Manning, but has been sacked 80 more times. He may never throw for 4,000 yards. Because of his playing style and reliance on physical skill, he will be lucky to have a career as long as a similar player like Steve McNair, whose skill eroded considerably the last 4 years of a 13 year career. And honestly, I just don't think Ben goes through progressions as quickly or effectively as other top five quarterbacks. He especially does not match up with the other top quarterbacks in the league when it comes to timing and scripted plays.

And yet, in many ways, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback in the NFL. He's on the same Super Bowl pace as Tom Brady. He has turned into a real leader on the field. He is not shaken by the big moment. He is by far the hardest quarterback in the league to take down. He is the best improviser in the NFL. As Collinsworth noted in week one, he has the NFL's best and most often used pump fakes. The time between the moment he decides where to throw the ball and the moment the ball leaves his hand is near nilch. Although his reads are a little slow, he creates enough time to get through them and makes good decisions. He's an accurate passer. He's a great play caller (much better than his coordinator). He makes a half dozen plays every game that would be impossible for anyone else. In short, Ben Roethlisberger is unquestionably the most exciting player in the NFL, and one more Super Bowl win away from a Hall of Fame spot.

As a Steeler fan, I would not trade Ben Roethlisberger for any of the three guys in front of him on this list. He is our guy and he is a Steeler. The top three quarterbacks in the league would still be great as a Steeler in our offense, but not as good as Ben is. On the flip side, I think Ben would look worse under center in New Orleans or Indianapolis. He just isn't that "drop back, read the play in a half second, throw the ball to a spot" kind of quarterback. He shouldn't have to be. He's great how he is and he's one of the most unique players in football. He won't last to 35 years old in the league due to his playing style, but for the next six years I'd take him over anyone.

Cream o' Crop

3. Tom Brady (Patriots, 2000) - Brady looked timid and rusty this year until this past week, but his "drop" to #3 is more about the two guys in front of him who have played well rather than Brady himself. He has said he'd like to play until he's 40, which is 7 or 8 more years, and I could see that. Tom Brady personifies the qualities of good decisions, fast thinking and accuracy that a quarterback needs. He's easy to hate if you're not a Patriot fan because he plays up the popped collar persona and things always seem to go right for him. In 2001 when the Patriots won the Super Bowl, Brady really only belonged in the "Average" category, or perhaps at best "Rising star." Since then he's won over all critics and will certainly go down as one of the 10 best quarterbacks of all time.

2. Drew Brees (Saints, 2001) - Remember before the 2004 season, when the Chargers were the worst organization in the NFL, we had trouble finding 4 wins on their upcoming schedule and Drew Brees was only keeping the seat warm for Philip Rivers? That seems like a long time ago now. Brees proved his talent, ended up in New Orleans and has never looked back. Brees plays for the best offense in the NFL and you could add him to 10 other NFL teams and instantly make them the best pro offense in the world. Brees makes the right decisions faster than anyone, throws accurately and leads on and off the field. Those are the only three quarterback qualities that matter; everything else is icing.

1. Peyton Manning (Colts, 1998) - The more things change, the more they stay the same. There have been arguments for five years that Brady is better, but no one argues that now. There will be (fair) arguments that Brees is better over the next 3-4 years, but don't believe it.

Imagine that aliens investigate our planet looking to take over, but they mistake NFL quarterbacks as the leader of the U.S.A. instead of politicians (not hard to believe, surprisingly). So they create a robo-human in a lab that has all the ability, work ethic and intangibles to be the perfect NFL quaterback. The result would be Peyton Manning.

Manning knows more than any other quarterback. He makes less mistakes than any other quarterback. He is the best ever at making defenders look stupid. He is the most accurate passer in the league and will never be outworked. He has proven that early playoff struggles were bad luck by winning a Super Bowl and taking down the Patriots along the way. He is on his way to a 4th league MVP award.

Peyton Manning has been the best quarterback in the NFL since at least 2003 and is still the best today. Favre better add to every (positive) career stat he currently owns, because Manning will own them all eventually. When we look back during his Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Manning will be in the conversation with Baugh, Graham, Unitas, Montana and Marino for best ever. Until then, he'll have to settle for #1 on this list.

Steelers lead league in passing stats.

Don't look now, but Steelers lead the league in passing and receiving yards.

Hines Ward tops all receivers with 599 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger leads all passers with 1887 yards. Of course, the Steelers haven't had a week off yet (he is behind only Peyton Manning in yards/game), and the passing defenses the Steelers have played are ranked 13, 14, 23, 28, 29, and 32 in terms of yardage. But that doesn't project to change much next week, as the Vikings are 24th in passing yardage allowed in the league, giving up 248 yards per game. Ben is averaging 314.5. He is 4th in the league in passer rating, trailing three guys who have way better running games behind them than him.

The bigger surprise to me is Hines Ward. The man is 33 but looks as good as ever this season. One has to credit Mike Tomlin for giving him Wednesdays off to help prolong his career. One or two more seasons like this and Hines will make the Hall of Fame, which to me looked like a longshot before the season. The man deserves his due as one of the greatest Steelers of the post-70s era, right up there with Rod Woodson and Dermontti Dawson.

There is little hope of running the ball successfully against the Vikings, so look for Big Ben to log 40+ passes this week.

Iowa surprisingly more deserving of title game than Texas Tuesday, October 20, 2009

I have tickets to the Ohio State-Iowa game November 14 but can't go due to a class.

I was going with an Iowa fan and planned on cheering on the Hawkeyes, all the more now since Ohio State has less to play for than ever.

If Iowa wins out, they deserve to face the SEC champion in the National Championship game. I'm not predicting they'll win out, and if they stumble they deserve nothing. But if Iowa does go undefeated it will be an injustice when they're in the Rose Bowl rather than college football's National Championship Farce.

The SEC isn't college football's version of the NHL central division or anything, but it's clearly head and shoulders above the other conferences. Its winner, if it has one or fewer losses, should be penciled in right now as the #1 ranked team going into the college postseason.

Pushing Cincinnati and Boise State aside due to their conferences' inferiority, who would be the most deserving undefeated #2, Iowa or Texas?

Texas plays their entire division (OK, OK State, Baylor, A&M, and Tech) along with Colorado, Missouri and Kansas in the north. They'll add another Big 12 victory over Kansas, Kansas State or Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. The rest of their schedule is filled out with non-BCS conference cupcakes, all of which they've already waxed.

Iowa, meanwhile, plays the hardest possible Big 10 schedule (i.e., they do not play Illinois or Purdue). That includes Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana. They too play non-BCS conference cupcakes, but only two. Their other two games were against the Big 12's Iowa State and the PAC-10's Arizona.

Are Iowa State or Arizona good? No. But neither is the worst team in their conference, either. And at least Iowa schedules real teams to play. Arizona actually borders on respectability.

If nothing else, Iowa deserves the championship bid just because they assembled a legitimate schedule.

There is no reason to think the Big 12 is any better than the Big 10 this season. The main argument would be that Texas lifts the conference, but if the point is to compare Texas to Iowa, they don't count. Yes, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue all belong in the MAC right now, but hey, Iowa only played one of them. Meanwhile, Texas feasts on Baylor, A&M and Kansas State.

Iowa's Big 10 oppoents have beaten Notre Dame, Arizona, Navy, Syracuse, and Iowa State this year. That's roughly equivalent to Texas' Big 12 opponents, who have beaten Georgia, Ole Miss, Illinois, Wake Forest and Duke. That's the same number of out-of-conference BCS conference (or relevant independent) wins, and if you played those teams against each other 1 through 5 high school tennis style, the teams the Big 10 beat would likely go 4-1.

The other argument for the Big 12 is that they did better in bowl games last year than the Big 10. Obviously true, but Iowa can't be blamed for that because they crushed South Carolina last year in the Outback Bowl.

If you want a "legit" argument for Texas, it's that they've earned the right to be there because they should have been declared co-national champions last year. But that's the problem with FBS. I could tell you that God told me to vote Iowa State number one and no one could tell me that's not right.

Until the beauty pageant ends and an objective system takes over, stick with FCS like John, or use this simple formula: Team with best record is better, but in case of tie, go with team who played actual BCS conference schools. By this measure, Iowa wins by two.

Pats cut Galloway, trade in works? And Predictions review

Joey Galloway has been cut by the Patriots.

Three others have been cut as well, and people are wondering whether the Patriots are setting up a trade, with ProFootballTalk throwing Shawne Merriman's name out there. (If Rodney Harrison were still with the team, perhaps their HGH dealer could've been used to help bring Shawne into the fold).

I would like to point everyone to my regular season predictions, not because I made any good predictions but because I lamented about how everyone loves every Patriot personnel move, even the dumb ones.

Fred Taylor is injured (which shouldn't be a surprise) and Joey Galloway is unemployed. Richard Seymour just played a key role in beating the Eagles.

I know it seems silly to criticize the Patriots since they just won a game 69-0, but as Joe Torre would say, that only counts as one win. The Patriots are far from the Colts and Saints of the NFL world right now.

By the way, those playoff predictions weren't bad. I missed out on the Giants and Broncos. But who didn't miss out on the Broncos? And the Giants sill have plenty of time for a late-season collapse, while the Eagles always play better later in the year. I predicted 3rd-place finishes for both the Jets and Ravens, and while that looked dumb at first, the tables have now turned.

Clearly my Panthers playoff pick was a mistake, but look at what I saw that few did: The Bengals in the playoff race, the Saints as the best team in the NFC, the 49ers with a division lead, and the Titans being bad. And I still think the Texans and Eagles can come through for me.

Obviously the Aaron Smith injury hurts the Steelers chances. If had to re-pick now it'd be hard to pick against Peyton.

Home Coming Weekend Monday, October 19, 2009

Homecoming was phenomenal. Unfortunately, as this is a football blog, I cannot go into too much detail about Friday Nights Hockey game. However, I cannot resist thanking Boston University defense man Eric Gryba who scored the final goal of the night, snapping a 2-2 tie. In spite of Gryba scoring the deciding goal in a 3-2 game, everyone else is giving UMass forward Will Ortiz credit. Some stupid rule about pucks you knock into your own net not counting for your stats. Don't worry Eric, I know you scored the game winning goal and I will do my best to make sure everyone else does.

The football game had a lot to live up to and it did not disappoint. The Wildcats scored real quick on a 50+ yard touchdown bomb to a WR Scott Sicko. Meanwhile, UMass scored on 2 of its last three possessions of the half to make the score 10-7. After Julian Tally caught a touchdown pass to take the lead, he had the most over the top celebration ever. He was mobbing his teammates jumping up and down and hooting and hollering and many of the UMass players joined him in this. You would have thought they had won the Super Bowl, if not accomplished much more with that catch.

If I were a UNH fan, I would have been quite upset by the whole display. Thankfully, I am not a UNH fan and I instead enjoyed it. I must admit I was surprised he wasn't flagged. But as I always say, the ref knows better than I do when to flag people. He's the professional, I'm just a nobody in the stands. If he said Talley wasn't celebrating excessively, who am I to question him?

Reading the game notes, it turns out it was Talley's first TD reception. After he calmed down, Havens went over to shake his hand, and Talley wouldn't shake it. Instead, he grabbed Havens and lifted him up 3 feet in the air.

The teams went in the half with the good guys leading 10-7. This is my first year as a season ticket holder, and I do love my seats. However, sometimes my section is quiet. If the defense needs help on third down and wants crowd noise, they're getting it from me and maybe two other people. Then the UMass Minuteman Marching Band comes out and everyone goes nuts. It's confusing. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the band. But the defense needs noise. The band doesn't. The 20 people who showed up from UNH were making more noise of UMass 3rd downs than the 13,000+ UMass fans were on UNH third downs. My friend and I decided to come up with a game plan to change this.

A man a few rows above me said he recognized us from the hockey game the night before. Once the band left the field, we used the rest of half time to practice a time tested chant at the University of Massachusetts. The man and his two sons would point at us and yell "U!" as loud as they could. My friend and I would point back at them and yell "MASS!" as loud as we could and the process repeats. We continued these shenanigans at the start of the third quarter and also would scream like there was no tomorrow when the Minutemen were on defense, especially on third down. Slowly but surely, people started joining in with us. Instead of 3 people, we had 5, then 10, then 20 people screaming. Other sections were doing similar things.

The University of New Hamsphire tied the game up in the third quarter in spite of all our noise. Then Havens threw interceptions on back to back series and that Sicko guy caught another TD to take the lead in the fourth quarter to make the score 17-10 bad guys. UMass answered with a field goal to cut the lead to 4.

At some point in time, the UMass team realized the crowd needed some encouragement. Senior Safety Jeremy Miles was injured in the first half of the game. I think he had a concussion judging by the fact that when he got up and tried to walk off the field, he looked like he was drunk. You could tell he had no clue what was going on or where he even was and trainers had to guide him off the field. From how long he was on the trainers table, I can only imagine he had no idea for quite a while. Around this time, Miles came over to the crowd and started waving a towel and moving his hands in the air encouraging everyone to make noise. Everyone started screaming. Up until that point, it was the loudest I've heard the place this year. Last year's Delaware game might have been a tad louder. I don't know. The defense forced UNH to punt.

UMass got the ball back and Jon Hernandez, once again playing for an injured Tony Nelson, broke a 42 yard run for a touchdown. I swear I called it. You can ask my friend Rob. I knew he was due. Game 1, no long TD. Game 2 58 yard TD against Albany. Game 3 no long TD. Game 4 36 yard TD against Stony Brook. Game 5 no long TD. It doesn't take a Master of Mathematics to realize pretty much all even games, he has a long TD run. Odd ones, not so much. But who cares? This was an even numbered game, and Hernandez made it 20-17 UMass.

When the defense took the field everyone on the UMass bench was over at the crowd screaming at us to scream at them. Havens looked like a mad man jumping up and down. I usually sit to not block the people's view behind me, but when your starting quarterback does that you have to out jump and out shout him. It's a rule. I can't take the credit for standing either. The father who I was doing the "U" "MASS" thing with started yelling at me to stand, and I admit he was right. Most of the section joined us. McGuirk has metal benches, so people were not only screaming but also pounding on the benches. It was the new loudest I've heard the stadium this year. UMass got the ball back again and drove down the field and added on a field goal to make it 23-17 with under 2 minutes left. Good things happen when you make noise on defense.

Of course, as the number 4 team in the nation, New Hampshire just wouldn't die quietly. They drove down the field, helped a lot by UMass penalties, and got inside the UMass 10 yard line with three seconds left. The UNH QB dropped back to pass, was met by a UMass defender in the backfield and threw the ball to the end zone in desperation. It was picked off by CB Kumar Davis who sealed the deal.

UMass is currently tied for first in the CAA North with UNH at 2-1 in conference play. Overall, they're 1.5 behind Richmond who is 4-0 in the conference and 0.5 behind Villanova who is 3-1 in CAA play.

Next week they're on the road against the Spiders. If UMass wins this game, they have the inside track at winning the conference. Everyone in the CAA would have at least 1 conference loss, and UMass would have beaten Richmond and UNH head to head. I feel like I say this every week about the Minutemen, but next week is the biggest game of the season. Stinks that it's on the road. But it's awesome that after last week's beating I'm downing more of the UMass Kool-aide!

Aaron Smith out for months, but Hood won't benefit much Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Steelers DE Aaron Smith could be out for months.

Now THIS is a blow. The Steelers have gotten by at 2-2 without Troy Polamalu, who returns this week to face the Browns. But history shows that losing Aaron Smith is a much worse prospect. In 2007, Tomlin's first year, Smith was lost for the season and the defense crumbled. He is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.

Normally, my prognosis would be 3-4 wins off the regular season total, putting us at 7, 8 or 9 wins on the season and a first round exit in the playoffs at best.

However, there is a wildcard: 2009 first round pick Ziggy Hood. The guys seems smart and is universally regarded as a good pick, yet he's hardly seen the field in 2009. With the injury, will he now be a starter? Unfortunately, no. Tomlin says the situation will be defensive end by committee.

I'm preparing to cover my eyes in horror. Hopefully Hood impresses this week in practice and gets the bulk of the playing time. He might not be "ready" in the eyes of the coaching staff, but he's the only backup with the talent to make something happen at that position.

Massachusetts@Delaware Post Game Saturday, October 10, 2009

The genius I am, I picked the right score. That's right. The Minutemen scored 27 points, just as I predicted. Unfortunately, Delaware didn't get the memo and scored 43 instead of 24. Jerks.

It's hard to say what went wrong. UMass couldn't get anything going. The first drive, they went all Mark Whipple on me and went for it on 4th and 2 from around the Delaware 30. Havens tried to hand off to Tony Nelson and the exchanged was less than optimal as it ended up on the turf. It was all Delaware after that.

Armando Cuko hit a 51 yard field goal into the wind at one point and time, so we have that going for us. I'm listening to the post game conference right now on the UMass radio network. If Kyle Havens is interviewed and has a confident quote, I'll let you know.

The thing that frustrates me most about this is UMass had a bye week last week. They had two weeks to prepare for the Blue Hens, and the Minutemen did absolutely nothing. Delaware did whatever it wanted to, whenever it wanted to, wherever it wanted to. It's one thing to lose. It's another thing to get completely blown out after a bye week. Delaware beat UMass 43-27. And believe me, the final score makes the game seem closer than it actually was.

Well, UMass is 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the CAA. It's only gonna get a lot tougher from here.

Next weekend is homecoming at UMass, and it looks like we have two great (and by great I mean evil) opponents. Friday Night, the hockey team battles the defending National Champion Boston University Terriors. Saturday, the University of New Hampshire Wildcats (5-0, 2-0 CAA, 1-0 FBS) come to McGuirk. Hopefully they'll wash the terrible taste I currently have in my mouth.

Massachusetts @ Delaware Friday, October 9, 2009

Tomorrow, 6PM, at Tubby Field @ Delaware Stadium the maroon hot Massachusetts Minutemen will take the field against the Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens.  

Delaware is a team that I hate, but in an extremely respectful way.  I almost like them, which is weird.  Their fan base is second to none in Division 1 when it comes to traveling to away games.  Note how I said Division 1.  I did not include FCS at the end.  That wasn't an oversight.  They have one of the most active boards of any FCS school, and unlike most other FCS schools, football is king.  I like that.  Every time someone talks about cutting sports at UMass, people (mainly basketball only fans) want to get rid of football.  I'm pretty sure they have the death penalty in Delaware for suggesting the school cuts football.  

Our current Vice President attended Delaware and played Freshman football there.  He ran into the team at an airport on the campaign trail last season, and told them he thought they'd kick Ohio State's ass in football.  Mind you, Delaware was TERRIBLE last season.  They went 4-8 overall and 2-6 in the conference.  And here we had a Vice Presidential Candidate claiming the Blue Hens would kick the Buckeyes' ass.  No one mocked that statement like they would have if Sarah Palin had said it, and there's a reason no on mocked it:  cause it's true (or people don't hate Biden like they do Palin...one of those reasons.  I'm not sure which).

As I was saying, the Hens had a terrible season last year after Joe Flacco (who?) graduated.  They came up to Amherst around the same time last year.  I don't remember the exact records, but both teams needed a win badly to have any shot at the playoffs, and UMass rose to the occasion, beating the Hens 17-7.  I was sitting on the visitors side a section away from the Blue Hen band and all their fans.  The sweetest moment of any UMass game in any sport I've ever been to was Jeremy Miles intercepting a pass and running it back for 50 yards to clinch victory.  The contrast of the ecstasy experienced by myself and other UMass fans and the agony of the Delaware fans was fabulous.  Then UMass played lousy for the rest of the season and also didn't make the playoffs, but at least they beat Delaware!

So now we have the same sort of scenario.  UMass is 3-1 (1-0 in CAA) and traveling to Delaware (3-2 overall, 1-2 in the CAA).  Delaware needs this game badly.  I think 4 losses are the most the committee will allow for playoff teams, and after this Delaware still has James Madison and Navy on their schedule.  As most 4 loss teams don't get in, this is about as must win as it gets for Delaware.  They gotta beat 2 of the 3, and UMass might be the easiest.  

On the UMass side, the schedule gets depressingly tough after this.  4 of the next 5 are against playoff teams, including @ defending national champion Richmond 10/24.  You have to think to go 2-2 against those 4 would be successful.  That means if they lose to Delaware and go 2-2 against the playoff teams, UMass would already be at 4 losses.  As most 4 loss teams don't get in, this is about as must win as it gets for UMass.  They gotta beat 3 of the 5, and Delaware's one of the easier ones.

I've heard so many great things about Delaware's Stadium and their fans.  They always sell out and they're loud.  It's suppose to be a great place to watch a game, but I can't get down there right now.  Hopefully next rotation when the two play down there.  Thankfully, Delaware apparently runs a live webcast of the game, which I will be watching.  I'm going with a close game, but the Minutemen win, 27-24.  

Roughing the Passer Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Ray Lewis is complaining about roughing the passer calls on Tom Brady which happened last Sunday. I dislike the Ravens, especially Ray Lewis, but I have to agree with him. I only saw one of the two plays (I went to see the Providence Bruins open up against the Springfield Falcons so I missed everything after the Raven got hurt) and when the flag was thrown, I objected. A Raven accidenctally brushed Brady's helmet, Brady fell down, a flag was thrown. It was a terrible call.

There's an article in yesterday's Boston Herald about it. Lewis is quoting as saying "People work too hard for that. And the embarrassing part about it is you see it constantly every week- emphasis on protecting the quarterback... It's embarrassing fo us to even keep a game going like that, give them momentum after they go three-and-out. We stop them, see a flag for a personal foul and Brady's laughing? That ain't no personal foul if you're still smiling...Did it lose the game? Absolutely not, but it's just embarrassing to go in there and play a game the way we did and you get that."

I agree with Ray Lewis about something having to do with football, and that makes me want to throw up.

I understand that it gets called both ways and will even out over the course of the season. In week 1, I complained about 2 terrible roughing the passer calls against New England. One could argue it's even now, but I still don't like it. The Herald had this quote from Brady, "(Quarterbacks are) holding the ball, we're unprotected. We're sitting back there defenseless. They deserved to get those calls..."

This is complete crap. The QB has at least 5 linemen to block for him. Many times there are tight ends and backs which stay in pass protection too. In those cases, more than half the offense is devoted to protecting the QB.

(In case you are wondering, disagreeing with Brady about football is fine in my mind. If I were disagreeing with Bledsoe, then I'd want to throw up.)

Ray Lewis had another quote in the Herald, which I think was probably either a joke or else said in frustration and wasn't meant to be taken literally "That's not football and that's the embarrassing part about it... You can't stop drives like that, you can't throw flags and say 'Oh, you touched the quarterback.' Put flags on them, put a red buzzer on them, so if we touch them, they're down."

Like I said, I don't think he literally meant the part about flags and buzzers, but it's where we are heading. I'm told the Patriots got screwed in 1976 against the Raiders in the playoffs on a bogus Roughing the Passer call against Sugar Bear Hamilton. I only know about this because it was the standard comeback to any Raider fan who complained about the tuck rule.

I've seen this "terrible" roughing the passer call, and by today's standards, it was blatent. Hamilton probably would be fined on top of the penalty. Do Google searches about it, and it's on a few "Worst call ever" lists. If you get to the ref's wikipedia page, you'll see this was the most contreversial call he ever made. It was so bad, apparently the NFL wouldn't let him ref Patriot games anymore.

In light of this, I wonder where we'll be in 33 years. Will these hits on Brady look terrible to my children? If I show them a tape, will they be up screaming about what a dirty team the Ravens must have been?

Back from the Dead Monday, October 5, 2009

Sorry about not posting last week. There's nothing more devastating than losing to a team from Ohio. I didn't even think about football last week because it was too painful. (Luckily that only happens about once every three years.)

The Steelers were up 28-0 in the third quarter. I was getting ready to write about Mike Tomlin, and the enormous gap between he and guys like Norv Turner and Wade Philips. When the Steelers are about to fall apart and they lose to the Bengals, Tomlin gets angry, his players take on his attitude, and they come out and take care of business. When Mendenhall is blowing his assignments in practice, Tomlin benches him, he responds, starts the next week and runs for 166 yards and two touchdowns.

When times get tough, what do Norv Turner and Wade Philips do? Do they really have credibility with the players to fire them up? Or do they just sit in meetings looking a little bit groggier?

Tomlin's best asset as a coach is not his youth or skin color. It's that he does two things few coaches can do in tandem: he connects with the players personally but it couldn't be more clear who's in charge. Once someone asked Tomlin in a press conference how he thinks his players would evaluate his work so far. He said, "It's their job to perform. It's MY job to evaluate." Can you imagine Wade Philips saying such a thing? The press would laugh at him. (And yes, that's partly Jerry Jones' fault.)

The Chargers made it interesting, nonetheless. Phillip Rivers is a great quarterback. With a couple minutes to go it was suddenly 35-28. Why have the Steelers consistently outplayed the competition this year but had to endure comebacks and two losses? Here's my explanations, in order of their impact on the team this season:

--Opponents. The Steelers have played four good teams in the Titans, Bears, Bengals and Chargers. I picked all but the Titans to make the playoffs and that looks like a solid prediction right now. The Titans will be something like 7-9. Worst of all, though, we've faced three good quarterbacks in a row: Cutler was impossible to sack and made no bad decisions in Week 2, and both Palmer and Rivers exploded for points at the end of the game. Both will put up a lot of good numbers this year. Looking forward to Stafford and Anderson the next couple weeks.

--Polamalu's injury. We need him back. This really accounts for both the late defensive struggles and the lack of big plays (sacks and interceptions). Our defense has played disciplined but we need Polamalu to cause havoc.

--Back luck. Santonio's mistake led to a pick-six last week. Stefan Logan not getting a whistle for stopped forward progress on the punt return when five Chargers were literally holding the 5'6" returner up so that they could strip the ball. A couple bad spots on the turf in Chicago. The Steelers have just had bad luck. This is no big deal; they'll have a mix of bad luck and good luck in the future.

--Playcalling. Arians called a great game on offense tonight but he was a big reason we lost the previous two weeks.

As Collinsworth kept mentioning, Chris Kemoeatu was a beast last night. I'm now optimistic about Mendenhall, as he did break a lot of tackles (haven't seen Wille do that in about a year), but the credit really goes to the O-Line. Unfortunately, not all run defenses are as pathetic as San Diego's.

By the way, San Diego missing the playoffs would be very satisfying. However, I still don't think Denver can survive their schedule. We'll find out soon as the teams play in two weeks.

Big Ben played great. I agree with Collinsworth: He's now a solid #4 behind Manning, Brees and Brady. I'll put Rivers at #5. Maybe later this week I'll post full quaterback ratings.

Part 2: UMass tailgater "...our team sucks." Wednesday, September 30, 2009

As I said in the closing line of my last post on this topic, I will present a theory which was originated by another poster on umasshoops.com. The poster's screen name is ShadesOf96and98 and here's an edited version of what he wrote:

"Even the best FCS teams are '(crappy)' in the eyes of many, many people who like football.

Yes, we are an elite FCS program, but unless a day comes when we are FBS and playing

FBS schools in an FBS-sized stadium, our brand of football will always be '(crappy)' in the

eyes of many people whether we're winning football games or not. I dont agree with it, most of

the people on here dont agree with it, but it is what it is and always will be"

So I read this, and it made a lot of sense to me. Who cares about FCS? There could be readers who come for Joe's NFL analysis and skip my 1-AA posts. Frankly, I'd be surprised if that weren't the case. And while we're being frank, it's not just this one tailgater who feels this way. Although UMass is arguably the most successful college football program Northeast of Delaware (and I'll include Delaware just to piss off Bluehen fans), I'd be willing to bet a vast majority of Massachusetts residents as well as UMass students and alumni would read that quote and accept it as fact.

I was planning to expand this, but we all get it. Instead, I'll skip right onto my third point: where do we go from here?

So we're faced with three possible reactions to the tailgater's comment. We can acknowledge that the FCS sucks and so do the teams, or we could advocate for UMass to move up to FBS, or we could advocate for a change in public opinion about the FCS. As you can probably tell from my last post, acknowledging FCS sucks is not an option. That leaves us with moving up to FBS or changing our opinion.

What about going FBS?

I see one guarenteed benefit: I'd get to play as the Minutemen in NCAA 2012. When consuls got better (i.e., PS2 was replaced with PS3, Game Cube with Wi, and XBox with XBox 360), EA sports took out the 1AA/FCS teams. If you buy PS2 versions of the game still, I'm told the FCS teams are there. That makes sense, right? Better consul=less teams.

What are other possible benefits? Maybe, just maybe, we'd get to play BC every year. That would be admittedly cool. Right now when the two meet the cards are always stacked in BC's favor. They have more scholarships and are always home. With the playing field leveled I think UMass would take 1 of every 3 from the Eagles, and I'm most definately selling the Minutemen short with that prediction. Bigger basketball fans than I would probably want to play UConn every year too and might consider that a benefit. I personally am indifferent towards Huskies (the UConn ones...I despise the Northeastern ones) so this rivalry would do little for me, but we'll call it a benefit.

So, there are your benefits- video games, BC and UConn.

Now let's look at drawbacks. If I asked people to raise their hand if they remember the last time they heard "BC Eagles" and "National Champions" used in the same sentence with respect to college football, do you think I'd get a lot of hands? I'd guess no, cause they've never won any, or even played for any to my knowledge. It's true I might get a few hands as the facts don't stop the school from claiming it won a title in 1940. I've seen the pennant hanging in the concourse of Alumni Stadium with my own eyes. Here's their side of the story. The NCAA and everyone outside of Chestnut hill disagrees.

Now, raise your hand if you remember the last time "UMass Minutemen" and "National Champions" were used in the same sentence with respect to college football. For some strange reason (see 1998), more people will raise their hand. In fact, if you look at this site, UMass, while only winning 1 NCAA Division 1 Championship, has played in 3 Division 1 Championship games. Three more then my graduate alma mater, Boston College. You do have to hand it to BC though. Unlike UMass, they're undefeated in National Title games.

.

So, while I'm having fun at the expense of BC, let's get serious for a second. Is anyone stupid enough to think that if UMass made the jump, they'd do better than what BC has done? Anyone? Do we think the Minutemen would be in a BCS conference competing in the conference title game? How would we even get into a BCS conference? What ties to we have, aside from playing with in the same hockey conference as Providence and Boston College? Providence doesn't even play football, and I don't see the Eagles helping out UMass.

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People seem to throw the MAC around as a possible conference to join, and others want the entire CAA to move up together. If we join the MAC, we lose all our rivals, and I enjoy hating Delaware and UNH. If we move up with the CAA, it automatically becomes the worst conference in FBS in the perception of everyone. And remember, BCS championship game participants aren't chosen based on what they do on the field. They're picked based on perception.

Regardless of which way UMass moved up, the best we could hope for is a really good team team that only loses a game or so a year but is ignored because of the conference affiliation, sort of a east version of Boise State. I can't even begin to imagine how frustrating that must be, never getting a shot to prove yourself on the field. I'd stop watching UMass football. Well, probably not, but still, I'd want to. I guess it wouldn't be all bad though. If we ever became the Boise State of the east, we could paint our field maroon. That would be awesome.

.

Even if we get into a BCS conference, the best we'd be able to do (again in my opinion) is what the Eagles have been able to. Is BC really in the position UMass wants to be in with respect to football? The Eagles are also runs every year. Sure, they're better than the non-BCS schools, but they're a joke when compared to the Pac10, Big10 and SEC schools. The way I see it, the Eagles have the same shot Harvard does every year at winning a title, and Harvard abstains from the playoffs on moral ground. Thinking about it this way, I can't really fault the Eagles for pretending they won a championship in 1940.

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I don't believe in purgatory, but FBS seems like it's the closest thing to it.

.

That means we're left with one choice, and that's to accept who we are and embrace it. That's what I'm doing, and I invite all of Massachusetts to do the same. The next homegame is October 17th. It's homecoming against UNH. The game has HUGE playoff implications (when's the last time a BC fan could say that about homecoming?). If any UMass alum or Massachusetts residents read this, I hope you'll consider joining me at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium.

Post Game: Atlanta vs New England Sunday, September 27, 2009

The Patriots defeated the Falcons today, 26-10. For the first time this year, I think Brady was off. He overthrew a ton of passes. I guess he also exploded on the sidelines and started screaming at everyone, all the receivers and Belichick. As it was Tom Brady who did it, I like it. It shows he cares and wants to execute every play, and won't settle for less than his best. If Peyton Manning ever did it, of course I'd be ripping him. That's just how I role. And let me point out, I'd be right to rip Manning if he exploded like Brady did today, just like I'm right to like Brady for doing it.

The defense continues to play well in my opinion, and continues to get ripped. Everyone was complaining about them in the stands and on the call in shows on the ride home. They've only allowed and average of 14 points a game! What does this region expect?

I never save ticket stubs to anything, except Patriots games. My uncle is a season ticket holder and he takes me to a game a year. The seasons tickets look like football card, so ever since I was little, I've kept each game. I have Bruce Armstrong (flipping through, I have a LOT of Bruce Armstrong...like 4 games). A Dolphin game I went to once has Willie McGinnest hitting Dan Marino. Drew Bledsoe and Steve Grogan share the photo of the game Bledsoe got hurt at and Brady came in relief. There's all sorts of Patriots greats, current and former. As the seasons tickets are printed before the year starts, sometimes the person on them is comical. I have Matt Bahr for an exhibition game ticket, and he was cut the day before the game for Adam Vinatieri. I also have Lawyer Milloy and Bill Belichick talking together on the sidelines for a game against the Giants in which Milloy was in Buffalo.

My favorite ticket stub is from October 10, 2004 against the Miami Dolphins. It has Eugine Wilson and Tyrone Poole breaking up a pass against some Brown whose number I can't make out. Gillette Stadium's red wall is in the background, and in real life it has nothing on it. On the ticket, cleverly spaced, they put the following in small letters:
SEC 19 (then a ref's head) IN A (then the Brown's player defended by Wilson and Poole) ROW

The significance of course is this is the ticket stub for their 19th win in a row, breaking the Dolphins record. I tried scanning it to put it up on the blog, but the format wasn't right. This was week 5, and the tickets are printed out and sent before the exhibition season starts. I like how they called their shot before the season. They predicted they'd win 19 in a row.

There is a reason I'm going off in a tangent about my ticket stubs. Because I have them all, I know the all time record the Patriots have in games I've been to. They beat the original Browns in the home opener in 1995 in my first game, then the Eagles in preseason of 1996, then the Cardinals in the home opener of 1996 and then the Chargers in the home opener in 1997. I was sitting pretty at 4-0. 3-0 if you don't count preseason.

That brings us to 1998. I had my pick of which game I wanted to go to that year. I could go to the Cheifs or the Falcons. I picked the Falcons cause I thought the Cheifs would be good and I had fun rubbing it in everyone's face that the Patriots were undefeated in games I went to. Not only that, I think I was the only one with a winning record. At the time, I was the youngest going to games. As a result, everyone else had seen some terrible Patriots teams play.

My cousin Danny, who never saw the Patriots win before, went to the Cheifs game that year. New England killed them, 40-10. The Falcons game was almost the exact opposite. Atlanta won on a freezing cold day in November, 41-10. It was so bad, the person sitting next to my uncle told me I must be bad luck and I wasn't allowed to come back.

11 years later, that loss is avenged. Take that Atlanta!

Overall, I've been pretty lucky. The Patriots are 10-6 in the regular season, 1-0 in the post season and 4-1 in preseason games I've been too.

Post Game: Stony Brook vs Massachusetts Saturday, September 26, 2009

UMass came out and dominated the first drive, as expected by yours truly. The first play from scrimmage was a 40 yard bomb from Havens to Jeremy Horne. Fullback Chris Zardas ran for a score three plays later to give the Minutemen an early 7-0 lead. For whatever reason, Stony Brook didn't lay down and die. They put together a nice seven play drive to tie the score at 7. After a Havens interception, Stony Brook kicked a field goal to take a 10-7 lead. After this, it was pretty much all UMass. They scored the next two touchdowns to make it 21-10. Stony Brook scored a touchdown two minutes before half time and their idiot receiver who caught the ball got into the face of the UMass defensive back and started screaming at him. The ref threw a flagged him and it gave UMass great field position, and they were able to get a field goal before the half to make it 24-17. The second half was all UMass, and the final was 44-17, so my prediction was off by 10 points. Not too shabby.

All the while, starting running back Tony Nelson didn't make an appearance. He was dressed and I watched him walking around and talking to people, but he never went in. His replacement, John Hernandez made the most of his opportunity, rushing for 3 touchdowns, including a 36 yarder, and 140 yards. I wasn't sure if he was hurt or suspended. My cousin who went with me suggested that maybe Hernandez had a better week of practice and was named starter. He was walking around ok and didn't seem hurt, and he was dressed so he didn't seem suspended. When I came home, I checked it and it turns out he had a shoulder injury. I wouldn't sleep all that well if I were Nelson tonight. He may have just lost his job.

The Stony Brook coach didn't impress me. First, when down 21-10, Stony Brook faced 4th-8 on the UMass 28. The wind was against them, so rather then attempt a 45 yard field goal, he sent the punt team on. Wait... 4th-8 from the opponents 28, and you're punting?!?!? What are you hoping to gain? 20 yards of field position? Is gaining that worth giving up an opportunity to score? Of course, the punter kicked it right into the endzone and Stony Brook gained a grand total of 8 yards of field position.

Then, when UMass was about to kick the field goal right before half, there were 40 seconds left and the clock was running. Of course UMass let time nearly expire before kicking it. Stony Brook had a time out and for some reason chose not to use it. 40 seconds is plenty of time to return the kick and run a few plays. He was just content to go to the lockerroom down by 7. If I were a Stony Brook fan, the coaching would have infuriated me today. Thankfully I'm not a Stony Brook fan.

Unfortunately, Kyle didn't have a great game this week, going 12-24 with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns. Unfortunately, there were a few bombs brought back as a result of penalties and there was a 60 yard beauty that would have been a touchdown if not for a fabulous defensive play by Stony Brook. As a result, he wasn't one of the three players selected for the postgame press conference. Therefore, I do not have anything for the new segment, Kyle's Confident Quote of the Week. If it's any consilation, the gate to get into my seats is near the UMass Lockerroom and while waiting to get in I saw Kyle standing outside alone, looking quite confident. Havens is quickly moving up my list of favorite UMass Athletes.

Game Day: Stony Brook @ Massachusetts

I started writing my second post about the quote, but I'll postpone it for a while as I'm going to Amherst today for the game, Stony Brook @ 15 UMass and Foxboro tomorrow to see Matty Heisman (HA!) vs the New England Patriots.

I don't know much about Stony Brook, other than the fact there one of the SUNYs. They just moved to the Big South Conference a few years ago from the Northeast Conference. Without even knowing the teams in either conference, I'd guess Stony Brook just added a lot to their travel expenses. So why? At first I guessed it would have to do with playoff eligibility. Though neither conference currently has an autobid, the Big South will next year. However, looking it up on Wikipedia, it appears both conferences will have one next year. That's why you shouldn't speculate kids.

Reading their press release from when the move was announced, it appears both the school and the conference thought it was the right move as both were up and coming and heading for success. Stony Brook also claims playing down south more will help with recruiting, which I suppose is true.

At any rate, NEC, Big South, SUNY Stony Brook or SUNY Albany. It's all the same, and the same is inferior to the Minutemen. UMass wins this one big. I'm going with 44-7, which was the final score of the Albany game.

Around The CAA
Here are other CAA games this weekend and my predictions:
Rhode Island @ UConn- I'm pulling for the Rams, but the Cons will destroy URI. It has nothing to do with how good UConn is. URI is that bad, I'd always pick who they were playing against to win.

Dartmouth @ UNH- UNH will win and make the Ivies realize the superiority of the CAA.
I'm actually rooting for Dartmouth though, as I dislike UNH and I have a friend who went to Dartmouth.

VMI @ Richmond- The Champs will beat Virginia Military Institution (I had to look it up), making the CAA 2-0 against the Big South this weekend.

Northeastern @ Villanova- Villanova wins this conference game. See Rhode Island-UConn commentary...except I'm not rooting for the Huskies.

Hofstra @ Western Michigan- Come on Hofstra! We need this to stay .500 against FBS after URI gets destroyed.

William & Mary @ Delaware*- Another conference match up. This is the game most likely to be an upset (Delaware winning). If it were any other team coming off a year like Delaware just had, I'd pick W&M without thinking twice. Or, if William and Mary were home, I'd go with them, but Tubby Raymond is a tough place to play... screw it. I'm going with William & Mary just to piss off Delaware fans.

*Edit- This game is actually at William and Mary. For some reason, the CAA webpage lists the home team first. How foolish is that? I'm still going with William & Mary, and still keeping the analysis I gave above, again just to piss off Delaware fans.

UMass Tailgater: "The games aren't that fun, because our team sucks." Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Let me start this post by saying like most UMass fans, my number one source for UMass sports news is the webpage http://www.umasshoops.com/. The entire site is a pretty good source for UMass Basketball.

If your not big into basketball, fear not. There's a message board with threads on all the main UMass teams: Men's hoops, women's hoops, football, men's hockey and men's lacrosse. If those aren't your thing, there's also a thread for other UMass sports, where in my experience softball and men's soccer seem to be the dominate topic of conversation, though there's mention of everything from women's crew (who last I checked had won something like 11 or 12 A-10 championships in a row) to baseball. The moderator is sort of on the strict side, so everything posted has to be backed up with sources, which I like. You know for the most part, you won't be reading rumors. Just the facts.

So, like most days, I'm on the umasshoops football board, and I saw someone posted this artical written by a Harvard student. He went to the football game on Saturday with his friends who go to UMass. Or more accurately, he went to a tailgate that occured outside the football game. In it, he talks about how awesome UMass tailgates are, and how they far exceeded his expectations. I thank him for his praise. However, I take issue with the one thing written about the football team itself:

No one was really talking football, since, just like at Harvard, nobody
goes to the games.

“The games aren’t that fun, because our team sucks,” one tailgater succinctly explained.

But we don’t have that excuse. Despite a tough loss to Holy Cross in Worcester last weekend, the Crimson is primed for another strong football season.

So, before I begin with my assault on this, let me make one thing clear. I don't blame the author. If I was invited to a school and someone at the tailgate told me what he was told, I'd believe them. Why wouldn't you? So, now that we're clear that I don't blame the author, I'm going to defend the Minutemen. As I have a lot I want to say on this topic, I'm going to do it over at least 2 posts...maybe three depending on how long post 2 is. The first post will address the accusation, that the Minutemen suck. The second and third posts will address why those associated with UMass might feel the team sucks and will look at possible solutions. Without further ado, I begin.

UMass plays in the premier FCS conference, the CAA (formerly the Atlantic 10). This conference is responsible for such current NFL stars as Tim Hightower (Richmond), Marques Colston (Hofstra) and Joe Flacco (Delaware). Aside from these three name brand players, many NFL teams have CAA players. I can't say I follow all former CAA stars, but off the top of my head, I do know the Patriots have Brandon McGowan, a saftey from Maine. I also know former UMass players are currently in Miami (WR Brandon London), Jacksonville (Long Snapper Jeremy Cain) and New York (S James Ihedigbo, who from my encounters with him is a great guy inspite of being a Jet). I'd be willing to bet your favorite NFL team has at least one CAA player, despite it being an FCS league. I just checked Joe's Steelers, and it turns out they have Willie Colon, a right tackle from Hofstra. Just for kicks, I also checked the Steelers main historical rival, the Cleveland Browns. They have two: WR Ray Ventrone of Villanova and DB Mike Adams from Delaware. Check your team. If they don't have a CAA player, leave a comment below.

So that's great. The CAA has it's fair share of NFL players. However, in my opinion, NFL players aren't the measure of how good a conference is. I think the best measure of an FCS conference would be playoff appearences. FCS has a 16 team playoff. There are 8 automatic bids, of which the CAA champion receives one. That leaves 8 at large bids. According to Wikipedia, there are 125 FCS teams (which is much more than I thought there were). The Ivy League decided as a whole academics was more important than football, and bans its 8 members from participating in the postseason tournament. That leaves 117. SWAC teams have there own championship game and other traditional rivals and sometimes opt out of the playoffs, but they're eligible to compete if they don't have a conflict. Even if we kick out all 10 teams, that's still 107. If we take out the 8 autobids, we're left with 99 teams fighting for 8 spots.

In 2007, the CAA received 3 at large bids and an autobid, for a grand total of 4 playoff teams. This either set the record for most teams from a conference making the playoffs or it tied it. It doesn't really matter, because the next year, the CAA broke it by receiving 4 at large bids and an autobid, for 5 total playoff teams. That's right. Out of those 99 teams fighting for the 8 spots, the CAA got 4 of them. (For the record, there are 12 CAA teams. 1 gets an outbid, so that leaves 11 CAA teams in the 99).

Ok, so the CAA sends a lot of teams to the playoffs. Big deal. How do they do?

I'm glad you asked. Since I started following 1AA/FCS in 2003, A10/CAA teams have played in 5 of the 6 championship games. The only year the conference missed out was 2005, and I blame UNH for choking that year, losing at home in the second round though ranked number 1 in the nation. Of the 5 times I mentioned, the conference has come home with 3 championships. That's pretty good. Appalacian State won the other three, so if it weren't for them...but I digress.

Who cares about FCS. The only thing that matters is FBS!

The CAA also has success playing FBS opponents. I believe I've already mentioned the FBS victories Richmond (beat Duke), William & Mary (beat Virgina), UNH (beat Ball State) and Villanova (beat Temple) have secured this year. UMass took Kansas State to the brink, and lost the game. JMU lost to Maryland in overtime. True, Northeastern got demolished by BC, but every conference has a bad team. That means the CAA is currenty 4-3 (SEE EDIT BELOW) against FBS teams and 2-2 against BCS opponents. All of the were on the road. I know an FBS team would probably never come play in a CAA stadium, but I'd be interested to see what the record would be if half were at home and half were on the road. I think it's safe to assume that the CAA could hang with the non-BCS FBS conferences.

So, we've established that the CAA is a really good conference. What does this have to do with UMass?


Since 2006, UMass has won 2 A10/CAA conference championships. Since I started following in 2003, UMass has won 3 conference championships. In 2003, they were co-conference champs with Delaware. In 2006, they won it outright. In 2007, they were co-champions with Richmond.

Not only that, but consider this fact I stole from the UMass game notes for Saturday's game against Stony Brook. Since the start of the 2006 season, the Minutemen are 21-2 at home. That's amazing. 21 wins to 2 losses. And remember, they're playing in the premier conference in FCS. Before losing to eventual national champion Richmond last year, UMass had a 16 game winning streak at home, which apparently at the time was second in FCS (San Diego, 28) and third in Division 1 (Oklahoma was second with 21). And I'll stress this: UMass plays in the best conference in FCS. It's not like a bunch of creampuffs are coming out to Amherst every week.

There are two more facts I'll steal from the game notes. First, UMass has had 7 winning seasons in a row. I don't know when that tailgater began his association with UMass Football, but if this team goes about .500, that will be five consecutive classes at UMass who have never known a losing season (or a .500 season for that matter).

Lastly, since 1998 when UMass won the national championship, all while playing in the premier FCS conference, UMass has gone 82-43. According to the game notes, that's the best in the conference. That's right. Going back more than a decade, UMass has been the best team in the best conference.

How can you say the team sucks? How can you justify that, being right outside the stadium on game day? How can you call them "our team" and say such terrible unfounded things? It's baffiling. This isn't Northeastern. This program is respectable. No. Calling them respectable is short changing them. It's a boarderline National Powerhouse. It's right there on the cusp of being one of the all time great FCS programs, and believe me, it's done it with minimal support from the Massachusetts Legislature, the UMass Alumni and the UMass Student Body as a whole.

In my next post, I'll give my theory as to why he or she said it. And by my theory, I of course mean a theory I read on umasshoops by another poster (ShadesOf96and98) that made a lot of sense to me and I am adopting.

EDIT: I just realized Towson lost to Northwestern, so the record is 4-4 against FBS teams, 2-3 against BCS teams.