Belichick: 10 Teams Get It, 22 Don't Friday, November 6, 2009

Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports interviewed Patriots Coach Bill Belichick on everything football.

The whole interview is really interesting, coming from a guy who seems to be interested in nothing BUT football. My favorite part was the end, where Belichick talked about Jimmy Johnson's theory on what it takes to win in the NFL:

“You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors.” Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front."

I really like the theory, and perhaps more than any other sport, in the NFL, there are organizations who get it, and organizations who don't. Here's my list of the 10 teams who get it, in order: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York Giants, Tennessee, Denver, Miami (under Parcells)... Wow, that's it. I could only find nine, and the last two are a stretch.

I suppose if Cowher, Holmgren, Gruden, or Shanahan return next year, we could see more teams who know what they're doing.

What do we know? Monday, September 21, 2009

The number of close NFL games these first two weeks has been off the charts. Taking a quick glance at the standings, it's impossible to know how good teams are, as most teams' records could easily be the opposite of what they are with the benefit of one or two changed plays.

In the AFC East, the Jets have indeed looked solid. The Patriots, though 1-1, could easily be 0-2, while the Bills (1-1) could easily be 2-0.

In the North, the Ravens have looked good although they could be 1-1 as well. Meanwhile, the 1-1 Bengals probably SHOULD be 2-0. And given a changed play here or there, the 1-1 Steelers could be either 2-0 OR 0-2. The Browns are terrible.

The 1-1 Houston Texans could be 0-2, while the 0-2 Titans could be 2-0, the 2-0 Broncos 1-1 and the 1-1 Raiders 2-0(!).

And that's just the AFC. Needless to say, we need more of the season to shake out. I'm just glad we have an objective system to sort this out, as opposed to the college game.

2009 AFC East Predictions Friday, August 14, 2009

I'm gonna post, along with some comments, my predicted finishes for all eight NFL divisions over the next couple weeks. I'll start with what I think is the easiest division to predict: The AFC East.

Last year, this division had a cake schedule, with everyone in the division playing the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders. That explains the turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 for the Dolphins. This year, not so lucky. Everyone in the division must play Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta.

1. New England Patriots - In some ways, last year's championship wasn't quite as satisfying without having to take down Brady. He's back, he's good, and their offense will still be the most productive in the league. I do think their defense will continue to slip, but there's just no one who can keep up with them in this division.


2. Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens will improve the team (though one aged wide receiver can only do so much), but with our without him, it's a team that's been building talent and competing for a couple years. Anyway, I believe 8-8 could claim second place here


3. New York Jets - I'm sure we're all big fans of their new running back, Shonn Greene, but a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback do not a division winner make.


4. Miami Dolphins - Besides the opponents listed above, the Dolphins will also have to face San Diego and Pittsburgh, which their division foes do not. The Dolphins benefited from an incredibly easy schedule last year, not to mention a crippled Patriots team. Despite what was seen last year, Chad Pennington and Joey Porter are at the ends of their ropes. You heard it here first: The Dolphins will fall back to earth hard.

Tomorrow or something: The NFC East

Vick to Eagles

Didn't watch the Steeler preseason game last night on ESPN. Instead, I was playing a game of Acquire. In the meantime, though, it was apparently announced that Michael Vick will play for the Eagles. I'm impressed that this was not leaked a couple days ago. There were, in fact, many speculating that there were no interested teams, and Vick was just waiting for a starting QB to get injured to have a chance.

In some corners of the internet, folks are speculating about Andy Reid's troubled sons, pointing out that he would be more likely to give someone a second chance. Not a bad point.

It makes sense from a football standpoint, way more than it does for the Steelers, since we just won the Super Bowl and don't need any distractions, and have Dennis Dixon if we want to do "wildcat" stuff.

Personally, I'm still wary about the NFL giving a guy a paycheck whose principal use of his paycheck in the past was to run a sophisticated yet illegal and cruel gambling ring for seven years. But from a non-business standpoint I have no problem forgiving him and I hope he succeeds.

My guess is the few mandatory weeks off will be helpful, as he will be extremely rusty at first, with some questioning whether he should have been signed at this time once he gets some practice in. But he'll come around. He's an incredible athlete.