What makes an improved team? Wednesday, August 12, 2009

We hear about it all offseason: FREE AGENCY, DRAFT, FREE AGENCY, DRAFT, FREE AGENCY, DRAFT. But how much of it even matters to this season?

The Steelers rarely make a big free agent splash, and their last two rookies of the year were Patrick Bailey (undrafted special teamer who was released at one point in the middle of the season) and Daniel Sepulveda (the punter). Yet they are a perennial contender and the current Super Bowl champions.

Indeed, teams can rarely count on a rookie to make a big difference, and in fact, the more rookies you have playing, the worse off your football team probably is. As for free agency, two words put to rest the question of its over-hyped nature: Daniel Snyder.

So what is it that really makes a team improve from one year to the next? The answer is recent rookies, those second- and third-year players who take a big step up from their early NFL career. Those first two years of experience make a huge difference, almost always bigger than a free agent addition or draft pick can make.

Think about these contributors to the Steelers' Super Bowl XLIII winning team who were second- or third-year players: Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Darnell Stapleton, William Gay, Santonio Holmes, Willie Colon. All six made a big impact for the first time last year.

I hypothesize that the improvement of second- and third-year players is the number one difference maker for a pro football team. Here's a list at the second- and third-year Steelers who might make their mark in 2009:

1. Lawrence Timmons, ILB - The 2007 15th overall selection had a quiet rookie year and began to ramp it up last year when he would replace physically inferior Larry Foote. With Foote now in Detroit, Lawrence Timmons will be out there full-time. Last year his incredible athleticism was apparent two to three times per game. As a full-time starter, I expect a Pro Bowl-caliber season.


2. William Gay, CB - "Big Play Willy Gay" (Tomlin's words) has looked good since his rookie year and has worked his way up the CB ladder to a starting role, one he shared in the latter parts of 2008 with Brian McFadden. It has yet to see if he's as talented as the departed McFadden, and I think we could have paid McFadden better than Arizona did (only $10M for two years), but I'm excited to see Big Play across the field from Ike in every formation.


3. LaMarr Woodley, OLB - Should have been named to the Pro Bowl last year. This year I'm expecting All Pro from the outrageously talented Wolverine.


4. Limas Sweed, WR - Was in the dog house for that drop in the AFC Championship Game, but should easily win the vacated third WR spot and has looked great in camp so far.


5. Daniel Sepulveda, P - Imagine how good our defense would have looked last year with a decent punter. The 2007 Steeler rookie of the year is back after spending last year on IR.


6. Darnell Stapleton, OG/C - Stapleton is injured and may not get his starting spot back, but I'm sure he'll find playing time, and he was impressive as a second-year undrafted free agent last season, starting in place of the injured Simmons.
   
7. Rashard Mendenhall, RB - Mendenhall has yet to impress me, and will have trouble stealing time away from the perpetually underrated Willie Parker. But if Parker is injured, here's to hoping he surprises us.

Needless to say, with all this second- and third-year talent starting to bloom, the World-Champion Steelers will actually be a much better team this year, after winning the Brady-less NFL last year.