Why Punt? Friday, September 18, 2009

Check out this awesome story about a high school football team in Arkansas that never punts.

The article makes a great case for the practice, at least as far as small-time high school football goes. Punts only go about 30 yards anyway, and knowing you have four downs to get things done gives you a significant tactical edge over the defense.

This school also always kicks onsides. Once again, it makes sense for high schools: They gets the ball back 25% of the time, and the difference between the other team recovering or receiving deep is only 15 yards.

In football factory college programs and the NFL, of course, the situation is different, with 40-45 yard punting averages, and some punters who are experts at getting their kicks downed inside the 10. Onside kick recovery is only about 10%.

But I do think there are situations where more NFL teams should punt, especially if their punter isn't adept at the "coffin corner" kick. From midfield to your opponents' 35-yard line should be the "Go For It" zone. After all, let's say you punt it and it ends up at the 20, either by a touchback or a return. The difference in yardage compared to if you don't make first down? Only 15-30 yards. I'd gladly give that up for a 50% chance of simply keeping the ball.

The ideal place for this strategy would have been Super Bowl XL between the Steelers and Seahawks. In the first half, the Seahawks repeatedly drove down the field on the Steelers and punted into the end zone, giving the Steelers the ball at the 20. This happened three times(!!), which represents some wretched lack of touch by the Seattle punter. Thus, though it seemed as if Seattle was dominating, Pittsburgh went into the half up 7-3. It's the hidden reason many people believe bad officiating cost the Seahawks the game (not that I'm defending the officiating).

If you do have the solid combination of a good punter and a killer defense, it does make sense to punt the ball in most situations. The Steelers have that this year, but did not have it last year while Sepulveda was injured.

The Browns have neither, so I'll try to keep my eye on their game this weekend while I watch the Steelers and count the number of times punting may have helped them. Then I'll report back here.

2009 NFC West Predictions Tuesday, September 8, 2009

I'm running short on time here... 55 hours away from Game 1. Very quickly... the NFC West. This is a traditionally bad division, and they have a tough schedule this year, playing the NFC North and AFC South.

1. San Francisco 49ers - Some have faith in Mike Singletary. Others think he'll be a major flop. I have observed that he is not all emotion and fire but works hard and wants his teams to be prepared. Could be only 8-8 or 9-7 with a division crown.
2. Seattle Seahawks - Hasselback returns, head coach does not mail it in, team improves.
3. Arizona Cardinals - I like Whisenhunt. The problem is Warner. Chances are great that's he'll regress to the mean a great deal, or even worse, get injured and hand the reigns to Leinart.
4. St. Louis Rams - This team is currently a big mess, although there's nowhere to go but up after Scott Linehan's regrettable tenure.