Larry Johnson to Green Bay makes the most sense. Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Houston Texans, who made more sense than anyone else for Larry Johnson, have stated they will not sign him. On Dan Patrick's show yesterday, Larry said he doesn't get to choose where he goes, but someone with at least a .500 record makes sense. After all, Larry's team problems had a lot to do with the Chiefs losing every week, much like Randy Moss with past teams. And only a strong organization can take in Larry considering his actions towards women and his homophobic slurs.

Then again, if your team is doing well, why bring in a distraction like Larry Johnson? It only makes sense if you're in serious need of a running back. That's why the Texans made the most sense, since they seem to have little confidence in Slaton and Moats. (Man I'm glad Slaton slipped through my fingers in my fantasy draft this past August.)

That's why I'm wondering why the Steelers' name has been thrown around. They have quality running backs. Even if Parker stinks, they're not going to cut him midseason and Mendenhall and Moore are running and blocking with the best of them. I wonder why the Packers or Giants haven't been mentioned. Both teams are contending but are a little desperate right now, and, in my opinion, either one could use another back. I suppose you could put the Giants in the "quality organization" category that might not be seen signing a character like Johnson. (Besides, I doubt he could maneuver the media there.)

So why not Green Bay? Grant is good but has no one with credibility behind them, and the Packers could certainly use a spark. The Giants could use a spark too, and are on a bye week.

On further review, Wallace outplaying Harvin Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Rookie WR, 1st round pick:
28 receptions, 369 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 39 yards rushing, 6 plays of 20 yards or more

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers WR, 3rd round pick:
25 receptions, 437 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, 43 yards rushing, NINE plays of 20 yards or more, Sunday evening news show personalities with same name: 1

Mike Wallace is the current Rookie of the Year, although you'll hear almost no national media taking notice. Wallace isn't even a starter and he's outplaying Harvin.

Steelers-Broncos Review: Defense shines without starters

The Steelers pounded the Broncos 28-10, and the winning margin would have been wider if not for a couple stupid turnovers when the Steelers were rolling.

Ryan Clark, Lawrence Timmons, Travis Kirschke, and Aaron Smith (IR) were out for the Steelers but the defense didn't miss a beat. Last time we lost DE Aaron Smith to IR in 2007, the defense crumbled. I've been impressed this year, and that's without Ziggy Hood getting much playing time. Nick Eason sured up the DL. The average age of our defensive line is 32, and features guys that have had unremarkable careers. Tomlin, LeBeau and John Mitchell have done incredible jobs there.

The linebackers have come on strong the past couple weeks. I would like to have Timmons healthy but Keyaron Fox is proving he deserves a starting spot too. It's a great problem to have. Harrison was steady as always and LaMarr Woodley is finally waking up from his first half slumber. I'm not sure what Woodley's problem has been. Maybe he had some life-problems that disrupted his play emotionally. He was much better last night. The tackling by everyone on defense was almost textbook perfect.

And of course Tyrone Carter played great in Ryan Clark's absense. We'll be hearing lots from the media this week about what a great "replacement" Clark was, but the national media doesn't realize that Tyrone Carter spends a lot of time on the field even when Clark and Polamalu are both healthy. He's a steady veteran, and Clark's position is obviously more replaceable than Troy's. Good thing since Clark is a free agent after the season. But expect Ryan Mundy, not Carter, to take over starting duties in 2010.

Roethlisberger and Ward continued their dominance, Rashard Mendenhall has (thankfully) proved me wrong, Santonio had a great game and Mike Wallace would garner rookie of the year consideration if Percy Harvin wasn't tearing it up in Minnesota. But the story of the offense has been the offensive line. These guys are so improved from last year. They are now a strength and a component of the team that can be relied on. Max Starks deserves to start in the pro bowl at left tackle.

The special teams have regressed to 2007 quality, but overall the Steelers are playing great football right now and look better than the 2008 Steelers who dominated on defense but were often impotent on offense. A lot of that has to do with Mendenhall, who still has room to improve but has effectively ended Willie Parker's career.

No time to rest, though, as the Steelers face the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals in five days. I have confidence that the Steelers are the better team but they need to play their best football to make sure they don't give Palmer and his troops a chance at the end like last time around. It's the most important game of the season by far.

Hats off to Brandon Marshall, who cannot be contained. The rest of the Broncos did not impress. The defense looked good in the first half and fell apart. Worst of all, in post-game quotes the Broncos sound like they're merely conceding that the Steelers are a great team and are not pointing the finger at themselves and the ways they need to improve to be true contenders. It looks to me like the true AFC contenders are the big three (NE, IND, PIT) plus the Steelers' little brothers in the AFC North (CIN, BAL).

Belichick: 10 Teams Get It, 22 Don't Friday, November 6, 2009

Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports interviewed Patriots Coach Bill Belichick on everything football.

The whole interview is really interesting, coming from a guy who seems to be interested in nothing BUT football. My favorite part was the end, where Belichick talked about Jimmy Johnson's theory on what it takes to win in the NFL:

“You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors.” Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front."

I really like the theory, and perhaps more than any other sport, in the NFL, there are organizations who get it, and organizations who don't. Here's my list of the 10 teams who get it, in order: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York Giants, Tennessee, Denver, Miami (under Parcells)... Wow, that's it. I could only find nine, and the last two are a stretch.

I suppose if Cowher, Holmgren, Gruden, or Shanahan return next year, we could see more teams who know what they're doing.

Manning on Top, Big Ben an Anomaly in Quarterback Rankings Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Below are my promised NFL quarterback rankings from 1 to 50, with comments. I decided to go Bill Simmons on ya'll and present them in 12 tiers from worst to first. Next to each quarterback I've listed his current team and his first year out of college.

Rankings are based on ability as of right now. Rankings do not take age or potential into account, although old guys are likely to move down quickly in the future. Quarterbacks are certainly eligible to move up with improved performances but this is how I see things as of this moment. "Rings" are not taken into account, although the ability to perform when it matters is certainly relevant.

I started with a list of current starters plus guys who are most likely to start at some point this year due to injuries or benching. Then I added in a couple more guys such as Troy Smith and Nate Davis whom I am personally interested in. Therefore, guys like Mark Brunell and Jon Kitna are not ranked.

Established Disasters

50. Michael Vick (Eagles, 2001) - Vick could certainly move up in the future, but right now there is no ungodly reason he should take snaps as a regular quarterback in an actual game, having been in prison for almost two years.

49. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders, 2007) - Russell's struggles, inaccuracy and poor work ethic are well-documented, and everyone is down on him. Hard to imagine he'll be in the league two years from today.

48. Matt Leinart (Cardinals, 2006) - Old Man Warner could certainly beat out a lot of current starters, but when Leinart has come in even on mop up duty, he's been an unqualified disaster.

47. Alex Smith (49ers, 2005) - Smith's career was a misfire right from the start and is destined to go down in history with the Couches, Carrs and Bollers of the world, not to mention the other A. Smith bust, Akili.

46. Chris Simms (Broncos, 2003) - Was liked by a lot of analysts early on, but the poor guy lost a lot of time to unlucky health problems. Nowadys his place on NFL rosters rests only his past potential and not current ability.

45. Vince Young (Titans, 2006) - Young believes he can work hard, be a backup for a while and eventually recover his career. Don't count on it.

44. Rex Grossman (Texans, 2003) - The first quarterback on our list to make it to a Super Bowl, Grossman vs. Manning was the most ridiculous QB mismatch in Super Bowl history. Somehow, Grossman is still hanging onto a roster spot, wondering what could have become of his career had he not been injured so much his first couple seasons.

Not quite dead yet

43. Derek Anderson (Browns, 2005) - In 2007, Anderson's poor accuracy was saved by career years by Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards in addition to an unbelievably easy schedule. Since then, his true colors have shown, but his teammates seem to like him a lot, so I can't quite pronounce his career a failure just yet.

42. Trent Edwards (Bills, 2007) - Many were high on Edwards before the season. Don't ask me why.

41. Brady Quinn (Browns, 2007) - Congratulations, Brady, you're the best quarterback of the 2007 NFL Draft class! It's difficult to evaluate Quinn because he's been on the field for very few snaps. However, I haven't heard Browns coaches or front office types say anything positive about him other than "Well, Anderson sucks, so let's try Quinn." Not exactly a vote of confidence.

40. Seneca Wallace (Seahawks, 2003) - Despite his long NFL tenure, he has very few snaps as a QB but I put him on this list because I do think he could move up a couple tiers in the right situation.

Clearly backups at best, but paid like real quarterbacks

39. Dan Orlovsky (Texans, 2005) - With Shaub's injury history, we're likely to see Orlovsky in some meaningful games this season. At that point, he'll swiftly reveal whether he's got real ability or if that self-induced safety was characteristic of his play.

38. Sage Rosenfels (Vikings, 2001) - Would he have gotten the start over Jackson if Favre hadn't showed up? Probably, since he was favored by VP of Player Personnel Rick Spielman. Favre's arrival signaled the demise of his last real chance to be an NFL starter.

Question marks with potential

37, 36, 35. Chad Henne (Dolphins, 2008), Josh Freeman (Bucs, 2009), Josh Johnson (Bucs, 2008) - I have absolutely no idea about these guys, and neither can anyone else except perhaps the actual coaching staff of the Dolphins and Bucs.

34. Nate Davis (49ers, 2009) - Davis could be a future playmaker in this league. He was incredible at Ball State and MAC QBs have a decent track record in the NFL (all things considered). Many in SF see him as the heir apparent. Plus he went to Bellaire High School in Ohio, my alma mater's biggest rival. I like the guy.

33. Matt Stafford (Lions 2009) - The biggest strike against him is that he plays for the Lions. Other than that, I'm clueless, but he was great in college.

32. Mark Sanchez (Jets, 2009) - He's looked good and bad, but so far his team has been a lot better than him, leading to a 3-2 record. We'll see. Another college star, though that means little.

In the perfect situation, the ceiling is "playoffs"

31. Tavaris Jackson (Vikings, 2006) - We've seen what Tavaris offers. With an uber-talented team, he can take you to the playoffs, but that's pretty much his ceiling. That will be a theme with all the guys in this group. By the way, what does it say about the quality of quarterback play in your league when Tavaris Jackson is the 31st best signal caller in the league? Not good.

30. Marc Bulger (Rams, 2000) - He was once quite good, but that's when his team was top ten talent. Nowadays, he's worse, and his team is at rock bottom.

29. Daunte Culpepper (Lions, 1999) - Similarly Daunte had a statistically mind boggling season in 2004 (4700 yards, 39 TDs) but the offensive talent certainly helped. Nevertheless, the Vikings never won two playoff games in one season while he was the quarterback, thus the playoff ceiling. He's never been the same since his injury.

28. Byron Leftwich (Bucs, 2003) - Just replace the three names above with Byron and you have the same description. At times, when the schedule was easy and when Fred Taylor and co. had it together, he had it together. But even then, a deep playoff run was out of the question. As recently as last year, he looked good with a championship-caliber Steeler team, but with the Bucs, we see what happens when the talent around him doesn't match up.

27. Troy Smith (Ravens, 2007) - Troy is the one guy on this tier who could move way up if he got the chance. Should've started for Baltimore last year, but his sickness gave Flacco a shot. I liked Smith better than most coming out of college and I still think he can be a good starter in the NFL.

26. Shaun Hill (49ers, 2002) - Shaun Hill has been maxing out his potential this year so far with the 49ers. If all goes well, he could take them to the divisional round, but his talent still rests well within the playoff ceiling range.

Eight average men

25. Jason Campbell (Redskins, 2005) - Campbell went 5 or 6 games last year without an interception out of the gate. He's always had below average (and overpaid) talent around him. Although nothing special, given the right circumstances I could see him moving up two tiers one day. He should've been happy when he heard Snyder was trying to trade him; with Snyder in charge, the situation in Washington will never be good.

24. Jake Delhomme (Panthers, 1997) - Our second QB on the list to start a Super Bowl (and lose), Delhomme has captained a lot of winning teams in Charlotte. He's been melting down in recent months, but Kurt Warner has done that and bounced back as much as anyone. He still has the confidence and admiration of his teammates, and I'm willing to give him a few more weeks before bumping him down to "not quite dead yet" status. Once again, its a sad state of QB play in the league when the 24th best option is Jake Delhomme.

23. David Garrard (Jaguars, 2002) - It's funny how fast the media likes to turn on quarterbacks. In 2007 Garrard was thought of as a top 15 QB. Suddenly he's a never-was. The Jaguars have shown some life the last couple weeks, which to me proves that Garrard belongs not in the trash heap or the throne room, but somewhere in the middle.

22. Chad Pennington (Dolphins, 2000) - Pennington may never play again, so this ranking is probably moot. But at his best Pennington was a smart and slithery QB with strong leadership skills. Theoretically, if he can still play, there's no reason those qualities should have faded.

21. Jeff Garcia (Free agent, 1994 CFL/1999 NFL) - Jeff Garcia consistently outplays everyone he replaces. He got the shaft in Oakland. His worst quality is that he's getting quite old, which isn't good for a short QB who makes good use of his athleticism.

20. Kerry Collins (Titans, 1995) - Our list's third Super Bowl QB, Collins also lost the big game in his lone appearance. Opinions will range on Collins and his ability throughout his career, but nowadays he relies solely on accuracy and good decision making, which could help him keep a job for a couple more seasons, especially under a conservative coach like Jeff Fisher.

19. Matt Cassel (Chiefs, 2005) - Cassel is paid better than the #18 man on this list, but was only able to take the formerly 18-1 Patriots to an 11-5 record despite an incredibly easy schedule. The results in KC haven't been good, but the talent around him ain't great either. The college backup's grade currently stands at incomplete.

18. Kyle Orton (Broncos, 2005) - I will never understand why the Bears waffled back and forth between Orton and Grossman for so long. At every opportunity, Orton outplayed the 2003 first round pick. At the very least, one can't deny that Orton is a likable guy who makes good decisions, which are really two of a quarterback's most important qualities. Also, I like Kyle Orton because he looks like a player from the 30s, slingin' touchdowns to Don Hutson.

The Young Stars

17. Joe Flacco (Ravens, 2008) - The star sophomore has taken the next step this season. His game-killing interception in the AFC Championship game likely haunting him, I don't expect a repeat of that kind of mistake this season. No sophomore slump in sight.

16. Matt Ryan (Falcons, 2008) - I was skeptical of Ryan's abilities before the season and expected a sophomore slump. Flaws have shone through but Ryan is clearly the real deal and will lead the Falcons for a long time.

Cagey veterans

15. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks, 1998) - Until a couple weeks ago, I always thought this guy's name was spelled "Hasselback." Amazing. I have no idea what "cagey" veterans means, but all five of these guys have been around for a while and can still get it done. They're all at turning points in their careers, too; they could maintain their skill for a few more seasons, move to elite status, or fall down the ladder. Although Hasselbeck is unlikely to be a star again, he was a top-5 QB for a few years and if not for the anonymity of Seahawks players the many injuries they've sustained lately, he'd be thought of more highly. Hasselbeck has been to a Super Bowl and lost, making mistakes at a couple key moments at Super Bowl XL following questionable penalties.

14. Tony Romo (Cowboys, 2003) - Although he's only been starting since 2006, Romo is older than people realize. He's taken a beating lately from Dallas fans, media, and former players. But to overlook Romo's talent is a big mistake, as he'll have a few great games this year that turn everyone's opinions around. Certainly, if he could prove that bad luck and not shaky confidence is to blame for late season / playoff collapses, he could move up this list.

13. Matt Schaub (Texans, 2004) - I still believe the Texans will have a top-five offense this year, and Shaub is a big reason why. The "cagey veterans" tier features the first six guys on the list who are capable of leading elite offenses, and Schaub is no different. His injury history holds him back from moving up a couple tiers.

12. Carson Palmer (Bengals, 2003) - Considered by many a top 3 QB back in 2005, Palmer has had trouble getting back to stardom since the injury. This ranking is based mostly on his past ability, as he's been jumpy and cautious this season.

11. Eli Manning (Giants, 2004) - As the 11th ranked QB on our list, Eli is the lowest ranked signal caller who has won a Super Bowl. That no lower ranked quarterbacks have won the big game demonstrates that an elite quarterback is a non-negotiable when building a Super Bowl-winning roster. Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer aside, the last 17 SB-winning QBs are Roethlisberger, Mannings, Brady, Warner, Elway, Favre, Young, and Aikman. There are rare exceptions, but if you want to win a Super Bowl, get an elite QB. Everyone's jumping on the Eli bandwagon again lately, but his opponents this year have been well below par. Eli is a guy who will always have some bad games throughout the year, but he has shown he's not intimidated by the big stage.

Old men who still got it

10. Kurt Warner (Cardinals, 1994) - Warner continues to look good this season, although some of us are waiting for the complete breakdown featuring tons of sacks and fumbles. Until that happens, he's a top-15 QB. As long as Warner has weapons, he's as good as anyone, although at his age, he could fall apart at any moment.

9. Brett Favre (Vikings, 1991) - Brett Favre is benefiting from a very talented roster, but with or without it this top-10 all-time QB is still a top-10 quarterback in the NFL today. The injuries from last year are not affecting him. The guy is an attention-whore and and it pains me to say it but he's still getting it done. Favre also won a ring, way back after the 1995 season.

8. Donovan McNabb (Eagles, 1999) - Not as old as Warner or Favre, but much older than the four guys directly in front of him, McNabb has been disrespected by fans, a diva WR and, most recently, his coach throughout the years. Nevertheless, McNabb has stayed steady as a top-10 QB through it all, and as everyone waits for him to fall of the cliff each new year, he keeps winning games and playing well, especially down the stretch in the regular season, with the Eagles going 6-2 in December the past two years and McNabb throwing for 11 TDs and only 2 interceptions during that span.

The future of the NFL

7. Jay Cutler (Bears, 2006) - The NFL should pay close attention to the three guys on this tier, because the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and the three guys in this tier, along with one or two guys from the "Rising stars" and "Question marks with potential" tiers will be the face of the league six years from now. I believe Cutler will always be stuck at the bottom of that elite tier, due mostly to poor leadership skills. Outside of that abortion of a first game against Green Bay, he has impressed me a lot, avoiding sacks by getting rid of the ball quickly while avoiding interceptions by always making the right decision and an accurate throw. At the end of this season, Denver may think it got the best deal in trading Cutler for Orton and picks. But eight years from now, Orton will be lucky to be playing while Cutler will be one of the league's ten best players.

6. Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 2005) - Brett Favre may have beaten the Packers, but Green Bay shouldn't regret their decision a year and a half ago to go with Rodgers over the legend. Rodgers has quietly put up great numbers since he got the starting job. He even put up great numbers against Minnesota despite poor play by his offensive line. Minnesota better take their wins now, because when Favre retires for good or runs out of gas, Aaron Rodgers will slap them silly twice a year for the next decade, Peterson or no Peterson.

5. Philip Rivers (San Diego, 2004) - As a fan, I really dislike Philip Rivers. I dislike his accent and his attitude and his smacktalk. So it pains me to say this, but I believe that by 2016 Rivers will be considered the unchallenged best quarterback in the NFL. Manning will be 40, Brady 39 and Brees 37 (all three will likely still be playing but not at the same level they are now). Roethlisberger will likely be out of the league by then, at age 34. Unless Matt Ryan or Stafford or someone like that surprises me, I think Rivers will be the NFL's #1 star by then. For now, he has to settle in behind two of the top 10 QBs of all time (as well as a couple others who will likely make the Hall of Fame). But eventually he'll surpass them all.

The Anomaly

4. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers, 2004) - There is no better player to spark up a debate on than Ben Roethlisberger. His stats are rarely overwhelming. He's started the same number of games as Eli Manning, but has been sacked 80 more times. He may never throw for 4,000 yards. Because of his playing style and reliance on physical skill, he will be lucky to have a career as long as a similar player like Steve McNair, whose skill eroded considerably the last 4 years of a 13 year career. And honestly, I just don't think Ben goes through progressions as quickly or effectively as other top five quarterbacks. He especially does not match up with the other top quarterbacks in the league when it comes to timing and scripted plays.

And yet, in many ways, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback in the NFL. He's on the same Super Bowl pace as Tom Brady. He has turned into a real leader on the field. He is not shaken by the big moment. He is by far the hardest quarterback in the league to take down. He is the best improviser in the NFL. As Collinsworth noted in week one, he has the NFL's best and most often used pump fakes. The time between the moment he decides where to throw the ball and the moment the ball leaves his hand is near nilch. Although his reads are a little slow, he creates enough time to get through them and makes good decisions. He's an accurate passer. He's a great play caller (much better than his coordinator). He makes a half dozen plays every game that would be impossible for anyone else. In short, Ben Roethlisberger is unquestionably the most exciting player in the NFL, and one more Super Bowl win away from a Hall of Fame spot.

As a Steeler fan, I would not trade Ben Roethlisberger for any of the three guys in front of him on this list. He is our guy and he is a Steeler. The top three quarterbacks in the league would still be great as a Steeler in our offense, but not as good as Ben is. On the flip side, I think Ben would look worse under center in New Orleans or Indianapolis. He just isn't that "drop back, read the play in a half second, throw the ball to a spot" kind of quarterback. He shouldn't have to be. He's great how he is and he's one of the most unique players in football. He won't last to 35 years old in the league due to his playing style, but for the next six years I'd take him over anyone.

Cream o' Crop

3. Tom Brady (Patriots, 2000) - Brady looked timid and rusty this year until this past week, but his "drop" to #3 is more about the two guys in front of him who have played well rather than Brady himself. He has said he'd like to play until he's 40, which is 7 or 8 more years, and I could see that. Tom Brady personifies the qualities of good decisions, fast thinking and accuracy that a quarterback needs. He's easy to hate if you're not a Patriot fan because he plays up the popped collar persona and things always seem to go right for him. In 2001 when the Patriots won the Super Bowl, Brady really only belonged in the "Average" category, or perhaps at best "Rising star." Since then he's won over all critics and will certainly go down as one of the 10 best quarterbacks of all time.

2. Drew Brees (Saints, 2001) - Remember before the 2004 season, when the Chargers were the worst organization in the NFL, we had trouble finding 4 wins on their upcoming schedule and Drew Brees was only keeping the seat warm for Philip Rivers? That seems like a long time ago now. Brees proved his talent, ended up in New Orleans and has never looked back. Brees plays for the best offense in the NFL and you could add him to 10 other NFL teams and instantly make them the best pro offense in the world. Brees makes the right decisions faster than anyone, throws accurately and leads on and off the field. Those are the only three quarterback qualities that matter; everything else is icing.

1. Peyton Manning (Colts, 1998) - The more things change, the more they stay the same. There have been arguments for five years that Brady is better, but no one argues that now. There will be (fair) arguments that Brees is better over the next 3-4 years, but don't believe it.

Imagine that aliens investigate our planet looking to take over, but they mistake NFL quarterbacks as the leader of the U.S.A. instead of politicians (not hard to believe, surprisingly). So they create a robo-human in a lab that has all the ability, work ethic and intangibles to be the perfect NFL quaterback. The result would be Peyton Manning.

Manning knows more than any other quarterback. He makes less mistakes than any other quarterback. He is the best ever at making defenders look stupid. He is the most accurate passer in the league and will never be outworked. He has proven that early playoff struggles were bad luck by winning a Super Bowl and taking down the Patriots along the way. He is on his way to a 4th league MVP award.

Peyton Manning has been the best quarterback in the NFL since at least 2003 and is still the best today. Favre better add to every (positive) career stat he currently owns, because Manning will own them all eventually. When we look back during his Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Manning will be in the conversation with Baugh, Graham, Unitas, Montana and Marino for best ever. Until then, he'll have to settle for #1 on this list.

Steelers lead league in passing stats.

Don't look now, but Steelers lead the league in passing and receiving yards.

Hines Ward tops all receivers with 599 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger leads all passers with 1887 yards. Of course, the Steelers haven't had a week off yet (he is behind only Peyton Manning in yards/game), and the passing defenses the Steelers have played are ranked 13, 14, 23, 28, 29, and 32 in terms of yardage. But that doesn't project to change much next week, as the Vikings are 24th in passing yardage allowed in the league, giving up 248 yards per game. Ben is averaging 314.5. He is 4th in the league in passer rating, trailing three guys who have way better running games behind them than him.

The bigger surprise to me is Hines Ward. The man is 33 but looks as good as ever this season. One has to credit Mike Tomlin for giving him Wednesdays off to help prolong his career. One or two more seasons like this and Hines will make the Hall of Fame, which to me looked like a longshot before the season. The man deserves his due as one of the greatest Steelers of the post-70s era, right up there with Rod Woodson and Dermontti Dawson.

There is little hope of running the ball successfully against the Vikings, so look for Big Ben to log 40+ passes this week.

Aaron Smith out for months, but Hood won't benefit much Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Steelers DE Aaron Smith could be out for months.

Now THIS is a blow. The Steelers have gotten by at 2-2 without Troy Polamalu, who returns this week to face the Browns. But history shows that losing Aaron Smith is a much worse prospect. In 2007, Tomlin's first year, Smith was lost for the season and the defense crumbled. He is one of the most underrated players in the NFL.

Normally, my prognosis would be 3-4 wins off the regular season total, putting us at 7, 8 or 9 wins on the season and a first round exit in the playoffs at best.

However, there is a wildcard: 2009 first round pick Ziggy Hood. The guys seems smart and is universally regarded as a good pick, yet he's hardly seen the field in 2009. With the injury, will he now be a starter? Unfortunately, no. Tomlin says the situation will be defensive end by committee.

I'm preparing to cover my eyes in horror. Hopefully Hood impresses this week in practice and gets the bulk of the playing time. He might not be "ready" in the eyes of the coaching staff, but he's the only backup with the talent to make something happen at that position.

What do we know? Monday, September 21, 2009

The number of close NFL games these first two weeks has been off the charts. Taking a quick glance at the standings, it's impossible to know how good teams are, as most teams' records could easily be the opposite of what they are with the benefit of one or two changed plays.

In the AFC East, the Jets have indeed looked solid. The Patriots, though 1-1, could easily be 0-2, while the Bills (1-1) could easily be 2-0.

In the North, the Ravens have looked good although they could be 1-1 as well. Meanwhile, the 1-1 Bengals probably SHOULD be 2-0. And given a changed play here or there, the 1-1 Steelers could be either 2-0 OR 0-2. The Browns are terrible.

The 1-1 Houston Texans could be 0-2, while the 0-2 Titans could be 2-0, the 2-0 Broncos 1-1 and the 1-1 Raiders 2-0(!).

And that's just the AFC. Needless to say, we need more of the season to shake out. I'm just glad we have an objective system to sort this out, as opposed to the college game.

Jack Lambert + Kennywood + Myron Cope = Friday, September 18, 2009

That's marketing gold right there.

Agents to NFL Players: Avoid Browns Thursday, September 17, 2009

Mike Florio reports that agents are now telling their players not to sign with the Browns as free agents.

One agent went as far as to say that they'd put their players on another team's practice squad before putting them on the Browns roster.

This isn't surprising. A forced 10-hour bus ride for rookies, a jerk of a head coach, lots of losing, living in Cleveland, and a suspicious number of staph infections would cause me to steer players away from the Browns, too.

What's interesting is that this has leaked out. You don't often get these kinds of tidbits. I've always assumed NFL players will always follow the money. In fact it could be that a couple disgruntled agents contacted Florio about this, but most don't care.

All I can say is, it's good to be a Steeler fan, where players (James Harrison, Max Starks, Chris Kemoeatu) take less than market value to remain a Steeler. Mangini really needs the win this week in Denver.

Tiki Knows How to Pull the Heartstrings Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Fluff piece about little girl Steeler fan with cancer... Brave girl, good stuff.

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The time has come. Thursday, September 10, 2009

The new season begins tonight. Time for Steeler 'backers to start hittin' stuff.

NEW - Steelers LB's - Renegade GOOD QUALITY2
by gcairo55

(Not sure how long it will be before the NFL finds this video on DailyMotion and shuts it down.)

2009 Post-season Predictions

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers
AFC Wildcards: Bengals, Texans

Notes: More people are jumping on the Bengals bandwagon but I've always believed Marvin Lewis isn't as bad as some say, and a healthy Carson Palmer can't hurt. The Bengals get to play the entire AFC West, too.

The Patriots will have a great offense, of course, but I'm sick of hearing how it will be as good as two years ago. The likelihood of any offense being that good is very low. Also, why do people laud the Patriots for every single personnel move they make? All I hear is what great use they're going to make out of Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway. Whaa??? What other team could add these two players and actually be praised for it? Taylor is 33 and Galloway is, wait for it.... Thirty-seven. We praise the Patriots because of our perception of them, not because we've actually looked at their decisions.

It's the same with Richard Seymour. We're praising them for getting a potential top-10 pick, but haven't they hurt their team for this year? Yet no one's cut a win off their projected totals. Besides that, if Seymour never shows up in Oakland, there's a good chance the Pats will have to give the pick back (since there was no physical performed on Seymour), and then they will just have a mess on their hands.

I really wish I could pick the Chargers to miss the playoffs, but their division is so bad, it's impossible. However, I do not at all understand the constant fawning and graveling people do at the feet of this team every preseason. They have a nice offense, but all they have on defense is a playmaker here or there. I vow that the Norv Factor will come to pass this year and this team will be embarrassed on a regular basis by non-division opponents. It starts next week against Baltimore.

NFC Divison Winners: Eagles, Saints, 49ers, Bears
NFC Wildcards: Panthers, Packers

Notes: The popular perception of the Vikings mystifies me. I think people start to spout an opinion and it sounds nifty, so it spreads everywhere. The Vikings apparently have had the most talented roster in the NFC for two years. But outside of big-name players, do they really have depth and talent? Or is it just name recognition? (Obviously AP is the best RB in the league.) Besides that, coaching will always be their achilles heel.

Meanwhile, while the Vikings haven't had an 11-win season since 2001, the Panthers have done that three times, have won lots of playoff games and have a solid, steady coach, and yet almost no one is picking them to make the playoffs. Some say Delhomme left a bad taste in their mouth due to his season-ending performance but... what, Bret Favre didn't?!

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots
NFC Championship: Saints over Bears
Super Bowl Champion: Steelers

Notes: The AFC is easy: The Pats and Steelers have the two best rosters and head coaches in the NFL. I picked the Steelers to make the Super Bowl, of course, because I'm a homer.

To me, the Saints are a proven commodity. They averaged 29 points per game. TWENTY-NINE POINTS! Their putrid defense HAS to regress to the mean and become merely below average. If they do, it should mean 11 wins. If they can get a couple home playoff games, they can go far in the playoffs.

2009 Opener: Titans at Steelers Preview

What Went Down Last Time

Week 16: It was a close game for three quarters but the Titans scored a couple touchdowns at the end, earning a 31-14 victory. Ben did not play well and threw a pick-six. The Titans, tired of playing third-fiddle in the AFC to the Steelers and Ravens all season despite winning the most games, vented their frustration by disrespecting the Terrible Towel, literally treating it like a hankey and a doormat.

One key to last year's game was that it didn't really matter. Yes, if the Steelers beat the Titans, won again the next weekend and the Titans lost the next week, they could have gotten home-field advantage. But there were two factors that made that irrelevant. First, the Steelers have played poorly as the number one seed this decade (2-2, losing two home AFC Championship Games), and so are less motivated by the idea than other teams. Secondly, the third and six seeds were already set as the AFC East winner and the Ravens. Considering how much better the Ravens were than any AFC East team, it was obvious the number one seed would be playing the Ravens in the divisional round. What kind of reward is that?

(As an aside, that reminds me of a great idea Bill Simmons once had: Have the number one seeds choose which of the two remaining seeds they will play in the second round. Makes for great banter and bulletin board material. No doubt the Titans would have selected San Diego last season, not Baltimore.)

What has Changed?

Besides a World Championship, the Steelers have also gained a great kick/punt returner this offseason in Stefan Logan. Although Timmons should be a huge upgrade at ILB, he's injured for this game. Sweed, I think, will fill in admirably for Washington at the third WR spot. (Washington is now with Tennessee.)

Speaking of Nate Washington, he is indeed the Titans' biggest addition this year. Their biggest subtraction (in talent and pure pounds) is Volunteer Albert Haynesworth, who is now a very rich Redskin.

Considering the relative evenness of the teams last year and the various factors so far, that leaves a couple question marks that will sway this game one way or the other:

Question Marks

Will Ben play well? In some ways this is the only question that matters. Both defenses will play well. Collins will be very conservative. The Titans will have modest success at best running the ball on Pittsburgh's stout run defense. Our running game will be completely useless. But what we don't know is how well Big Ben will play. If he is mistake free, the Steelers should win. If not (and if the Titans take advantage) it could be hard to stomach. Our O-Line, of course, will not be good, but the key is not for Big Ben to have room to make plays, but for him not to make big mistakes at key times like he did in this game last year, as well as in the Colts game.

Will Nate Washington make a streak or two down the field for a long gain? The Steelers defense does not give up a lot of long plays, but we saw over and over again how Washington made defenses look silly last year, getting open deep.

It's all up to Ben tonight. The Steelers can take one bad mistake from him, but with each additional mistake, we'll need a big special teams play or defensive score to stay ahead.

This is the sixth straight time the Super Bowl champions have opened up the season at home on Thursday night, and even though the game is always scheduled against a tough opponent, the champs are 5-0 so far with this setup. I expect the same tonight, leading to a 20-10 Steeler win.

2009 AFC North Predictions Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Finally, the last one. The Steelers' home division plays the NFC North and the AFC West this season. Last year this division was home to both AFC Championship Game participants and between them they had three of the best games of the season.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - The World Champs are well-coached, uber-talented, and reasonably focused.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals defense was better than it looked last year, Palmer provides a big boost to the offense, and Marvin Lewis is underrated as a coach.
3. Baltimore Ravens - Flacco is no savior. The defense is getting older, plus they lost Bart Scott.
4. Cleveland Browns - The only easier spot to pick was the Lions. Mangini has taken a mess and made it messier.

At some point tomorrow I'll predict wildcards, Super Bowl, etc.

2009 NFC North Predictions

Two to go! The NFC North, whose teams all play the AFC North and NFC West this year:

1. Chicago Bears - I hate to say it, but Jay Cutler looks good. Real good. I don't mind Kyle Orton, but the guy can't throw the football like Cutler.
2. Green Bay Packers - The second best quarterback leads to the second-best record in the divison.
3. Minnesota Vikings - Favre is unlikely to make it through the season. The Williams' may get suspended at some point as well. Childress is not a good coach.
4. Detroit Lions - No explanation necesssary.

Hartwig signs extension

Center Justin Hartwig has signed an extension with the Steelers.

If you thought the 2008 Steelers line was bad, remember back to 2007 when we had Sean Mahan starting at center. Yikes!! I am very happy to see Hartwig sign an extension. The Steelers have had only 5 starting centers since 1974: Mike Webster, Dermontti Dawson, Jeff Hartings, Sean Mahan and Justin Hartwig. Webster is in the Hall of Fame, Dawson should eventually get there, Hartings was a steady presence for 7 years, and Mahan was the 32nd best center in the league in 2007. Hartwig restored aptitude to the position last season. Hopefully now he can restore stability.

Quite a list of re-signed players this offseason: "So far this offseason, the Steelers have negotiated new contracts with Brett Keisel, James Harrison, Kemoeatu, Starks, Essex, Keyaron Fox, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Charlie Batch, Andre Frazier and now Hartwig."

I'll assume Hartwig's contract is not huge. So he, along with Harrison, Starks, and Kemoeatu, gave the Steelers major steals in their deals. When the league has a hard salary cap, players being willing to take under-market contracts is a huge advantage that few teams posess.

Essex, Fox, Batch, and Frazier all signed on the cheap, of course, because they are not great players. (Not that I'm not grateful for Fox, who will start in place of Timmons tomorrow.)

That leaves Keisel, Ward, and Miller as the only ones signing questionable contracts. Miller is young and worth the big TE money and would be considered a top 3 tight end if he had a smarter OC. Ward and Keisel are old, but Ward's leadership is irreplaceable, and Keisel, as the theory goes, doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires. We'll see about that one.

Anyway, I'm glad we can finally put these sorts of topics behind us tomorrow and start watching real live NFL football!!

2009 AFC West Predictions Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Moving on, here's my AFC West predictions. All AFC West teams play the AFC North and NFC East this year. This one could be ugly.

1. Chargers - Their roster is overrated and their coach is bad, but they have a great QB and there is nobody else to win this division. Nevertheless, I'm sure they'll slip once and go only 5-1 in the division, 11-5 overall.
2. Raiders - Why not? 6-10 could mean a second place finish. And they do have more talent then most realize. If only coaches weren't punching each other out.
3. Chiefs - They're still at the bottom of the "rebuilding" slope.
4. Broncos - This one's ugly.

2009 NFC West Predictions

I'm running short on time here... 55 hours away from Game 1. Very quickly... the NFC West. This is a traditionally bad division, and they have a tough schedule this year, playing the NFC North and AFC South.

1. San Francisco 49ers - Some have faith in Mike Singletary. Others think he'll be a major flop. I have observed that he is not all emotion and fire but works hard and wants his teams to be prepared. Could be only 8-8 or 9-7 with a division crown.
2. Seattle Seahawks - Hasselback returns, head coach does not mail it in, team improves.
3. Arizona Cardinals - I like Whisenhunt. The problem is Warner. Chances are great that's he'll regress to the mean a great deal, or even worse, get injured and hand the reigns to Leinart.
4. St. Louis Rams - This team is currently a big mess, although there's nowhere to go but up after Scott Linehan's regrettable tenure.

Hampton to be Cut? Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Rumors fly that Casey Hampton could be cut before the season.

The article's author, Ed Bouchette, laughs at the idea. Hampton is in his last year and is relatively affordable at $3M. The guy is not as good as he used to be but losing him would really thin us out, depth-wise.

Not only that, but as Hampton is close friends with many of his teammates, his teammates would probably be quite shaken by the cut.

The only way I can imagine this happening is if Hampton has been really, really bad in practices and it's obvious to everyone: front office, coaches, and all the players. But I haven't heard anything like that.

Even so, this will be Hampton's last year. Hopefully he can get Super Bowl ring #3 while wearing black and gold.