Pats cut Galloway, trade in works? And Predictions review Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Joey Galloway has been cut by the Patriots.

Three others have been cut as well, and people are wondering whether the Patriots are setting up a trade, with ProFootballTalk throwing Shawne Merriman's name out there. (If Rodney Harrison were still with the team, perhaps their HGH dealer could've been used to help bring Shawne into the fold).

I would like to point everyone to my regular season predictions, not because I made any good predictions but because I lamented about how everyone loves every Patriot personnel move, even the dumb ones.

Fred Taylor is injured (which shouldn't be a surprise) and Joey Galloway is unemployed. Richard Seymour just played a key role in beating the Eagles.

I know it seems silly to criticize the Patriots since they just won a game 69-0, but as Joe Torre would say, that only counts as one win. The Patriots are far from the Colts and Saints of the NFL world right now.

By the way, those playoff predictions weren't bad. I missed out on the Giants and Broncos. But who didn't miss out on the Broncos? And the Giants sill have plenty of time for a late-season collapse, while the Eagles always play better later in the year. I predicted 3rd-place finishes for both the Jets and Ravens, and while that looked dumb at first, the tables have now turned.

Clearly my Panthers playoff pick was a mistake, but look at what I saw that few did: The Bengals in the playoff race, the Saints as the best team in the NFC, the 49ers with a division lead, and the Titans being bad. And I still think the Texans and Eagles can come through for me.

Obviously the Aaron Smith injury hurts the Steelers chances. If had to re-pick now it'd be hard to pick against Peyton.

Don't Panic: Even 0-2 Teams Make Playoffs Tuesday, September 15, 2009

How much does Week 1 matter? In the last eight seasons, the eventual Super Bowl winner has been just 4-4 on opening day. (On the other hand, the seven eventual champions before that were 7-0.)

Every year, 0-1 teams go on to make the playoffs, even really bad week 1 teams like the 2003 Patriots. In fact, even 0-2 teams make the playoffs almost every year, such as the 2008 Chargers, 2007 Giants, 2006 Chiefs, the 2003 Eagles, and the 2002 Steelers. All those teams but the Chiefs even went on to win a playoff game.

Houston is a a sleeper bust! The Jets are playoff contenders! Baltimore has a dynamic offense! Cincinnati is helpless on offense! The Broncos are in the playoff hunt! Brett Favre is a game manager! The Bears made a huge mistake acquiring Jay Cutler!

These are all statements that most would have disagreed with a few days ago. One game goes by and we are freaking out.

Week 1, more than any other week, is incredibly misleading. Teams are getting into a rhythm. Teams are making a gameplan without having a solid idea about what their opponent is doing. And, worst of all, with no other games to evaluate, there's a matter of opponent strength and small sample size.

Of the exclamated conclusions above, only one or two will turn out to be true, and even one of the 0-1 teams who lose this coming week will likely be in the playoffs. My money's on the Bears.

2009 Post-season Predictions Thursday, September 10, 2009

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers
AFC Wildcards: Bengals, Texans

Notes: More people are jumping on the Bengals bandwagon but I've always believed Marvin Lewis isn't as bad as some say, and a healthy Carson Palmer can't hurt. The Bengals get to play the entire AFC West, too.

The Patriots will have a great offense, of course, but I'm sick of hearing how it will be as good as two years ago. The likelihood of any offense being that good is very low. Also, why do people laud the Patriots for every single personnel move they make? All I hear is what great use they're going to make out of Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway. Whaa??? What other team could add these two players and actually be praised for it? Taylor is 33 and Galloway is, wait for it.... Thirty-seven. We praise the Patriots because of our perception of them, not because we've actually looked at their decisions.

It's the same with Richard Seymour. We're praising them for getting a potential top-10 pick, but haven't they hurt their team for this year? Yet no one's cut a win off their projected totals. Besides that, if Seymour never shows up in Oakland, there's a good chance the Pats will have to give the pick back (since there was no physical performed on Seymour), and then they will just have a mess on their hands.

I really wish I could pick the Chargers to miss the playoffs, but their division is so bad, it's impossible. However, I do not at all understand the constant fawning and graveling people do at the feet of this team every preseason. They have a nice offense, but all they have on defense is a playmaker here or there. I vow that the Norv Factor will come to pass this year and this team will be embarrassed on a regular basis by non-division opponents. It starts next week against Baltimore.

NFC Divison Winners: Eagles, Saints, 49ers, Bears
NFC Wildcards: Panthers, Packers

Notes: The popular perception of the Vikings mystifies me. I think people start to spout an opinion and it sounds nifty, so it spreads everywhere. The Vikings apparently have had the most talented roster in the NFC for two years. But outside of big-name players, do they really have depth and talent? Or is it just name recognition? (Obviously AP is the best RB in the league.) Besides that, coaching will always be their achilles heel.

Meanwhile, while the Vikings haven't had an 11-win season since 2001, the Panthers have done that three times, have won lots of playoff games and have a solid, steady coach, and yet almost no one is picking them to make the playoffs. Some say Delhomme left a bad taste in their mouth due to his season-ending performance but... what, Bret Favre didn't?!

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots
NFC Championship: Saints over Bears
Super Bowl Champion: Steelers

Notes: The AFC is easy: The Pats and Steelers have the two best rosters and head coaches in the NFL. I picked the Steelers to make the Super Bowl, of course, because I'm a homer.

To me, the Saints are a proven commodity. They averaged 29 points per game. TWENTY-NINE POINTS! Their putrid defense HAS to regress to the mean and become merely below average. If they do, it should mean 11 wins. If they can get a couple home playoff games, they can go far in the playoffs.

2009 AFC North Predictions Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Finally, the last one. The Steelers' home division plays the NFC North and the AFC West this season. Last year this division was home to both AFC Championship Game participants and between them they had three of the best games of the season.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - The World Champs are well-coached, uber-talented, and reasonably focused.
2. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals defense was better than it looked last year, Palmer provides a big boost to the offense, and Marvin Lewis is underrated as a coach.
3. Baltimore Ravens - Flacco is no savior. The defense is getting older, plus they lost Bart Scott.
4. Cleveland Browns - The only easier spot to pick was the Lions. Mangini has taken a mess and made it messier.

At some point tomorrow I'll predict wildcards, Super Bowl, etc.

2009 NFC North Predictions

Two to go! The NFC North, whose teams all play the AFC North and NFC West this year:

1. Chicago Bears - I hate to say it, but Jay Cutler looks good. Real good. I don't mind Kyle Orton, but the guy can't throw the football like Cutler.
2. Green Bay Packers - The second best quarterback leads to the second-best record in the divison.
3. Minnesota Vikings - Favre is unlikely to make it through the season. The Williams' may get suspended at some point as well. Childress is not a good coach.
4. Detroit Lions - No explanation necesssary.

2009 AFC West Predictions Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Moving on, here's my AFC West predictions. All AFC West teams play the AFC North and NFC East this year. This one could be ugly.

1. Chargers - Their roster is overrated and their coach is bad, but they have a great QB and there is nobody else to win this division. Nevertheless, I'm sure they'll slip once and go only 5-1 in the division, 11-5 overall.
2. Raiders - Why not? 6-10 could mean a second place finish. And they do have more talent then most realize. If only coaches weren't punching each other out.
3. Chiefs - They're still at the bottom of the "rebuilding" slope.
4. Broncos - This one's ugly.

2009 NFC West Predictions

I'm running short on time here... 55 hours away from Game 1. Very quickly... the NFC West. This is a traditionally bad division, and they have a tough schedule this year, playing the NFC North and AFC South.

1. San Francisco 49ers - Some have faith in Mike Singletary. Others think he'll be a major flop. I have observed that he is not all emotion and fire but works hard and wants his teams to be prepared. Could be only 8-8 or 9-7 with a division crown.
2. Seattle Seahawks - Hasselback returns, head coach does not mail it in, team improves.
3. Arizona Cardinals - I like Whisenhunt. The problem is Warner. Chances are great that's he'll regress to the mean a great deal, or even worse, get injured and hand the reigns to Leinart.
4. St. Louis Rams - This team is currently a big mess, although there's nowhere to go but up after Scott Linehan's regrettable tenure.

2009 NFC South Predictions Thursday, August 27, 2009

Very quickly, the NFC South. All teams in the NFC South play all teams in the AFC East and NFC East this year. Should be a strong division this year. Predicted finishes:

1. New Orleans Saints - They've got a killer offense. Will Malcolm Jenkins and other new additions on defense help make games winnable? Last season, the Saints were never more than 1 game away from .500. They had only 1 winning streak, a length of two games. They had only one losing streak, a length of two games. They finished 8-8. But you can only hold a great offense down for so long. The defense will have to regress to the mean and get better, leading to more wins this year.


2. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers were impressive with a weak schedule last year, and put the beatdown on quite a few teams, leading to a 12-4 record. John Fox always has a well-prepared and physical team. Delhomme's meltdown against the Cardinals was stunning, but it doesn't represent the new Delhomme. He's still capable of steering the ship on the strength of a strong defense and running game, even though he makes mistakes.


3. Atlanta Falcons - Most are betting on an Atlanta division crown. I have my doubts. Matt Ryan will definitely keep them in contention all year, though.


4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This team is either young or untalented almost everywhere. Their coach is a complete mystery. There will be growing pains for sure.

2009 AFC South Predictions Wednesday, August 26, 2009

I will now present my 2009 predicted finishes for AFC South teams, who all play the entire AFC East and NFC West. The South should be in contention as the strongest division in the league once again, with the Texans returning their suddenly high-octane offense, the Colts being the Colts and Jeff Fisher still the man in charge in Nashville.

1. Indianapolis Colts - The erosion in performance from losing a great head coach is never felt the first season (see: Callahan, Bill and Phillips, Wade). So while I have no idea if Jim Caldwell is a good coach or not, the Colts could more or less make the playoffs blindfolded for one season if they had to. Many don't even realize they went 12-4 last year.


2. Houston Texans - It's been popular the last 3 years to pick the Texans to finally win, and the last two years they have sort of delivered, with consecutive 8-8 seasons. If they were in the AFC East or the NFC West last year, they may have been 12-4. It's tough to play the Colts and Titans twice a year. However, with the new "triplets" (Shaub, Johnson, Slaton) firmly entreanched, there's no doubt the Texans will feature a top 10 offense this year.


3. Tennessee Titans - A third place ranking is not a slight on the Titans. I believe in their coach. But I do think that, in combination with the loss of Haynesworth and the unlikelihood of Kerry Collins staying healthy for 16 games, an improved Texans club will leave the Titans on the outside looking in. Even a 10-6 finish could possibly leave this team in third place.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars - It's mind-boggling to me that a city the size of Jacksonville refuses to support an NFL team, but it looks like it's time for the Jaguars to move on to L.A. or somewhere else as soon as possible. MJD is taking over starting duties from the tailback position, but other than that, it's hard to find positives for this team, and Del Rio lost the locker room late last season.

2009 NFC East Predictions Wednesday, August 19, 2009

I'm gonna post, along with some comments, my predicted finishes for all eight NFL divisions over the next couple weeks. Today: The NFC East.

The NFC East is arguably the best division in pro football, and unquestionably the division that gets the most media coverage. With Vick added to the fold in Philadelphia, the media coverage will only increase (but at least Jessica Simpson is out of the picture). Everyone in the division is playing the NFC South and the AFC West.

1. Philadelphia Eagles - The Vick acquisition may make a small positive difference, although it's the aggregate number of skill position players that compounds to make this offense very exciting. The death of D-Coor Jim Johnson won't help, although I'm assuming whoever has been promoted will be able to keep Johnson's train running for at least one season. Reid is a great coach and the Eagles are always in it at the end of the season.
2. Washington Redskins - Haynesworth was certainly overpaid but a great defensive tackle is as much a sure thing in free agency as any. He's sure to make a difference. I do think head coach Jim Zorn is underrated (as long as he stays on Clinton Portis' good side) and Jason Campbell at least can steer the ship competently.
3. New York Giants - The conventional wisdom is that Eli crumbled last season without premiere wide-out Plaxico to throw to, and the conventional wisdom was 100% correct. Eli will regress back to the mediocre QB his was. I'm expecting the Giants to fall to 6-8 wins. (Although Brandon Jacobs is still a beast.)
4. Dallas Cowboys - I know this looks like standard Cowboy-hate coming from a Steeler fan, but it's year three of the Wade Phillips Hang-On-For-Dear-Life-Rickety-Roller-Coaster-That-Will-Inevitably-Crash ride. Owens' presence was an excuse, and a mature locker room with actual leaders would simply ignore him (or threaten him). The Cowboys will not be better without him, and will finish last in what could still be the NFL's top divison.

Brett Favre Tuesday, August 18, 2009

To steal a line from Mark Hoppus, a lot of people are just starting to jump on the "I hate Brett Favre" band wagon. I'm old school. I've been hating Brett Favre since 1995.

Well, more like since January of 1997. That's when the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI, 35-21. I remember Favre throwing a touch down bomb early in the game, taking his helmet off and sprinting up and down the field in a manner that today would have earned him at least two personal fouls. I've despised the man ever since.

I gave him a chance to redeem himself once. At the end of the 2002 season, the Patriots needed to beat Miami in a 1PM game and they needed Brett Favre and the Packers to beat the Jets in a 4pm game in order to win a division title. The Patriots came from behind to beat the Dolphins. I swore I'd forgive Favre and love him like everyone else (or at least tolerate his existence) if he beat the Jets. What did he do? He single handedly eliminated the defending champions from contention by throwing incompletion after incompletion after incompletion after interception. You could tell he didn't want to be there or even really care about the outcome. Jets fans can't say he never got them into the playoffs. My hatred escalated.

I always hated that Favre was like Jeter in that he could do no wrong in the eyes of the press. I remember watching a Sunday Night game in 2004 where the Packers were beating the Texans by two scores. Favre then threw an interception in the red zone and David Carr led the Texans down the field to bring them within a field goal from looking at the final score. Favre threw another red zone-interception and Carr led the Texans into the red zone and threw an incomplete pass or something on 4th down or the last play of the game...memory is a bit hazy. The announcers were all over Carr, saying he needed to be more like Favre, who would never make a mistake in the red zone in such a close game. Apparently their memories were a bit hazy too.

But the thing I really hated about him was that no one else hated him. On the contrary, everyone loved him. I was at a Bible Study, and afterwards we watched Monday Night Football. I think the Packers were playing the Chiefs. Everyone was going on and on about how great Favre was and asked me what I thought of him. I told them I didn't like him. The kid next to me said "Get out of this room, Satan!"

I use to root for the Packers to go 0-16 every year. It unfortunately never happened, though they went 4-12 in 2006 and I was pumped because I thought it meant the end of Favre. He came back another year, and wouldn't you know it, he got me again. Not only did the Packers do really well, going 13-3, but they also had homefield advantage in the NFC Championship game against the Giants. Favre threw two interceptions, including one in overtime that punched the Giants tickets to Super Bowl XLII. There's no doubt in my mind the Packers would have been destroyed by the Patriots that year. It's tough to say which I hate Favre more for: losing the 2007 NFC Championship game or winning Super Bowl XXXI. I'd have to go with the former, as if he had won the Patriots would have avenged the latter infinitely many times over.

So, then Favre retired but didn't and instead came back as a Jet. Let me be honest with you. This was the first thing he ever did that I approved of. Why wouldn't I want one my least favorite players* on my least favorite team, especially as a washed up bum? But he got me again, as only Brett Favre can do. The Patriots needed to beat some crappy team on the final day of the season in a 1PM game and have Favre beat the Dolphins in a 4pm game to win the division. A quick Google Search tells me it was the Patriots opponent was the Bills, and New England obviously beat them. Wanna guess how well Favre did? Just go back up and read my 2002 summary.

To summarize the above, since I started watching football religiously in 1996, Brett Favre has been directly responsible for ending 3 Patriot seasons and indirectly responsible for the worst loss in not only Patriot history, but professional sports history itself. Now he's back with the Vikings. The one prediction I'm going to make is somehow Brett Favre will single handedly ruin this season for me.

* Brett Favre and Peyton Manning are 1A and 1B. I can't decide which I hate more.

2009 AFC East Predictions Friday, August 14, 2009

I'm gonna post, along with some comments, my predicted finishes for all eight NFL divisions over the next couple weeks. I'll start with what I think is the easiest division to predict: The AFC East.

Last year, this division had a cake schedule, with everyone in the division playing the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders. That explains the turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 for the Dolphins. This year, not so lucky. Everyone in the division must play Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta.

1. New England Patriots - In some ways, last year's championship wasn't quite as satisfying without having to take down Brady. He's back, he's good, and their offense will still be the most productive in the league. I do think their defense will continue to slip, but there's just no one who can keep up with them in this division.


2. Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens will improve the team (though one aged wide receiver can only do so much), but with our without him, it's a team that's been building talent and competing for a couple years. Anyway, I believe 8-8 could claim second place here


3. New York Jets - I'm sure we're all big fans of their new running back, Shonn Greene, but a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback do not a division winner make.


4. Miami Dolphins - Besides the opponents listed above, the Dolphins will also have to face San Diego and Pittsburgh, which their division foes do not. The Dolphins benefited from an incredibly easy schedule last year, not to mention a crippled Patriots team. Despite what was seen last year, Chad Pennington and Joey Porter are at the ends of their ropes. You heard it here first: The Dolphins will fall back to earth hard.

Tomorrow or something: The NFC East