Below are my promised NFL quarterback rankings from 1 to 50, with comments. I decided to go Bill Simmons on ya'll and present them in 12 tiers from worst to first. Next to each quarterback I've listed his current team and his first year out of college.
Rankings are based on ability as of right now. Rankings do not take age or potential into account, although old guys are likely to move down quickly in the future. Quarterbacks are certainly eligible to move up with improved performances but this is how I see things as of this moment. "Rings" are not taken into account, although the ability to perform when it matters is certainly relevant.
I started with a list of current starters plus guys who are most likely to start at some point this year due to injuries or benching. Then I added in a couple more guys such as Troy Smith and Nate Davis whom I am personally interested in. Therefore, guys like Mark Brunell and Jon Kitna are not ranked.
Established Disasters
50. Michael Vick (Eagles, 2001) - Vick could certainly move up in the future, but right now there is no ungodly reason he should take snaps as a regular quarterback in an actual game, having been in prison for almost two years.
49. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders, 2007) - Russell's struggles, inaccuracy and poor work ethic are well-documented, and everyone is down on him. Hard to imagine he'll be in the league two years from today.
48. Matt Leinart (Cardinals, 2006) - Old Man Warner could certainly beat out a lot of current starters, but when Leinart has come in even on mop up duty, he's been an unqualified disaster.
47. Alex Smith (49ers, 2005) - Smith's career was a misfire right from the start and is destined to go down in history with the Couches, Carrs and Bollers of the world, not to mention the other A. Smith bust, Akili.
46. Chris Simms (Broncos, 2003) - Was liked by a lot of analysts early on, but the poor guy lost a lot of time to unlucky health problems. Nowadys his place on NFL rosters rests only his past potential and not current ability.
45. Vince Young (Titans, 2006) - Young believes he can work hard, be a backup for a while and eventually recover his career. Don't count on it.
44. Rex Grossman (Texans, 2003) - The first quarterback on our list to make it to a Super Bowl, Grossman vs. Manning was the most ridiculous QB mismatch in Super Bowl history. Somehow, Grossman is still hanging onto a roster spot, wondering what could have become of his career had he not been injured so much his first couple seasons.
Not quite dead yet
43. Derek Anderson (Browns, 2005) - In 2007, Anderson's poor accuracy was saved by career years by Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards in addition to an unbelievably easy schedule. Since then, his true colors have shown, but his teammates seem to like him a lot, so I can't quite pronounce his career a failure just yet.
42. Trent Edwards (Bills, 2007) - Many were high on Edwards before the season. Don't ask me why.
41. Brady Quinn (Browns, 2007) - Congratulations, Brady, you're the best quarterback of the 2007 NFL Draft class! It's difficult to evaluate Quinn because he's been on the field for very few snaps. However, I haven't heard Browns coaches or front office types say anything positive about him other than "Well, Anderson sucks, so let's try Quinn." Not exactly a vote of confidence.
40. Seneca Wallace (Seahawks, 2003) - Despite his long NFL tenure, he has very few snaps as a QB but I put him on this list because I do think he could move up a couple tiers in the right situation.
Clearly backups at best, but paid like real quarterbacks
39. Dan Orlovsky (Texans, 2005) - With Shaub's injury history, we're likely to see Orlovsky in some meaningful games this season. At that point, he'll swiftly reveal whether he's got real ability or if that self-induced safety was characteristic of his play.
38. Sage Rosenfels (Vikings, 2001) - Would he have gotten the start over Jackson if Favre hadn't showed up? Probably, since he was favored by VP of Player Personnel Rick Spielman. Favre's arrival signaled the demise of his last real chance to be an NFL starter.
Question marks with potential
37, 36, 35. Chad Henne (Dolphins, 2008), Josh Freeman (Bucs, 2009), Josh Johnson (Bucs, 2008) - I have absolutely no idea about these guys, and neither can anyone else except perhaps the actual coaching staff of the Dolphins and Bucs.
34. Nate Davis (49ers, 2009) - Davis could be a future playmaker in this league. He was incredible at Ball State and MAC QBs have a decent track record in the NFL (all things considered). Many in SF see him as the heir apparent. Plus he went to Bellaire High School in Ohio, my alma mater's biggest rival. I like the guy.
33. Matt Stafford (Lions 2009) - The biggest strike against him is that he plays for the Lions. Other than that, I'm clueless, but he was great in college.
32. Mark Sanchez (Jets, 2009) - He's looked good and bad, but so far his team has been a lot better than him, leading to a 3-2 record. We'll see. Another college star, though that means little.
In the perfect situation, the ceiling is "playoffs"
31. Tavaris Jackson (Vikings, 2006) - We've seen what Tavaris offers. With an uber-talented team, he can take you to the playoffs, but that's pretty much his ceiling. That will be a theme with all the guys in this group. By the way, what does it say about the quality of quarterback play in your league when Tavaris Jackson is the 31st best signal caller in the league? Not good.
30. Marc Bulger (Rams, 2000) - He was once quite good, but that's when his team was top ten talent. Nowadays, he's worse, and his team is at rock bottom.
29. Daunte Culpepper (Lions, 1999) - Similarly Daunte had a statistically mind boggling season in 2004 (4700 yards, 39 TDs) but the offensive talent certainly helped. Nevertheless, the Vikings never won two playoff games in one season while he was the quarterback, thus the playoff ceiling. He's never been the same since his injury.
28. Byron Leftwich (Bucs, 2003) - Just replace the three names above with Byron and you have the same description. At times, when the schedule was easy and when Fred Taylor and co. had it together, he had it together. But even then, a deep playoff run was out of the question. As recently as last year, he looked good with a championship-caliber Steeler team, but with the Bucs, we see what happens when the talent around him doesn't match up.
27. Troy Smith (Ravens, 2007) - Troy is the one guy on this tier who could move way up if he got the chance. Should've started for Baltimore last year, but his sickness gave Flacco a shot. I liked Smith better than most coming out of college and I still think he can be a good starter in the NFL.
26. Shaun Hill (49ers, 2002) - Shaun Hill has been maxing out his potential this year so far with the 49ers. If all goes well, he could take them to the divisional round, but his talent still rests well within the playoff ceiling range.
Eight average men
25. Jason Campbell (Redskins, 2005) - Campbell went 5 or 6 games last year without an interception out of the gate. He's always had below average (and overpaid) talent around him. Although nothing special, given the right circumstances I could see him moving up two tiers one day. He should've been happy when he heard Snyder was trying to trade him; with Snyder in charge, the situation in Washington will never be good.
24. Jake Delhomme (Panthers, 1997) - Our second QB on the list to start a Super Bowl (and lose), Delhomme has captained a lot of winning teams in Charlotte. He's been melting down in recent months, but Kurt Warner has done that and bounced back as much as anyone. He still has the confidence and admiration of his teammates, and I'm willing to give him a few more weeks before bumping him down to "not quite dead yet" status. Once again, its a sad state of QB play in the league when the 24th best option is Jake Delhomme.
23. David Garrard (Jaguars, 2002) - It's funny how fast the media likes to turn on quarterbacks. In 2007 Garrard was thought of as a top 15 QB. Suddenly he's a never-was. The Jaguars have shown some life the last couple weeks, which to me proves that Garrard belongs not in the trash heap or the throne room, but somewhere in the middle.
22. Chad Pennington (Dolphins, 2000) - Pennington may never play again, so this ranking is probably moot. But at his best Pennington was a smart and slithery QB with strong leadership skills. Theoretically, if he can still play, there's no reason those qualities should have faded.
21. Jeff Garcia (Free agent, 1994 CFL/1999 NFL) - Jeff Garcia consistently outplays everyone he replaces. He got the shaft in Oakland. His worst quality is that he's getting quite old, which isn't good for a short QB who makes good use of his athleticism.
20. Kerry Collins (Titans, 1995) - Our list's third Super Bowl QB, Collins also lost the big game in his lone appearance. Opinions will range on Collins and his ability throughout his career, but nowadays he relies solely on accuracy and good decision making, which could help him keep a job for a couple more seasons, especially under a conservative coach like Jeff Fisher.
19. Matt Cassel (Chiefs, 2005) - Cassel is paid better than the #18 man on this list, but was only able to take the formerly 18-1 Patriots to an 11-5 record despite an incredibly easy schedule. The results in KC haven't been good, but the talent around him ain't great either. The college backup's grade currently stands at incomplete.
18. Kyle Orton (Broncos, 2005) - I will never understand why the Bears waffled back and forth between Orton and Grossman for so long. At every opportunity, Orton outplayed the 2003 first round pick. At the very least, one can't deny that Orton is a likable guy who makes good decisions, which are really two of a quarterback's most important qualities. Also, I like Kyle Orton because he looks like a player from the 30s, slingin' touchdowns to Don Hutson.
The Young Stars
17. Joe Flacco (Ravens, 2008) - The star sophomore has taken the next step this season. His game-killing interception in the AFC Championship game likely haunting him, I don't expect a repeat of that kind of mistake this season. No sophomore slump in sight.
16. Matt Ryan (Falcons, 2008) - I was skeptical of Ryan's abilities before the season and expected a sophomore slump. Flaws have shone through but Ryan is clearly the real deal and will lead the Falcons for a long time.
Cagey veterans
15. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks, 1998) - Until a couple weeks ago, I always thought this guy's name was spelled "Hasselback." Amazing. I have no idea what "cagey" veterans means, but all five of these guys have been around for a while and can still get it done. They're all at turning points in their careers, too; they could maintain their skill for a few more seasons, move to elite status, or fall down the ladder. Although Hasselbeck is unlikely to be a star again, he was a top-5 QB for a few years and if not for the anonymity of Seahawks players the many injuries they've sustained lately, he'd be thought of more highly. Hasselbeck has been to a Super Bowl and lost, making mistakes at a couple key moments at Super Bowl XL following questionable penalties.
14. Tony Romo (Cowboys, 2003) - Although he's only been starting since 2006, Romo is older than people realize. He's taken a beating lately from Dallas fans, media, and former players. But to overlook Romo's talent is a big mistake, as he'll have a few great games this year that turn everyone's opinions around. Certainly, if he could prove that bad luck and not shaky confidence is to blame for late season / playoff collapses, he could move up this list.
13. Matt Schaub (Texans, 2004) - I still believe the Texans will have a top-five offense this year, and Shaub is a big reason why. The "cagey veterans" tier features the first six guys on the list who are capable of leading elite offenses, and Schaub is no different. His injury history holds him back from moving up a couple tiers.
12. Carson Palmer (Bengals, 2003) - Considered by many a top 3 QB back in 2005, Palmer has had trouble getting back to stardom since the injury. This ranking is based mostly on his past ability, as he's been jumpy and cautious this season.
11. Eli Manning (Giants, 2004) - As the 11th ranked QB on our list, Eli is the lowest ranked signal caller who has won a Super Bowl. That no lower ranked quarterbacks have won the big game demonstrates that an elite quarterback is a non-negotiable when building a Super Bowl-winning roster. Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer aside, the last 17 SB-winning QBs are Roethlisberger, Mannings, Brady, Warner, Elway, Favre, Young, and Aikman. There are rare exceptions, but if you want to win a Super Bowl, get an elite QB. Everyone's jumping on the Eli bandwagon again lately, but his opponents this year have been well below par. Eli is a guy who will always have some bad games throughout the year, but he has shown he's not intimidated by the big stage.
Old men who still got it
10. Kurt Warner (Cardinals, 1994) - Warner continues to look good this season, although some of us are waiting for the complete breakdown featuring tons of sacks and fumbles. Until that happens, he's a top-15 QB. As long as Warner has weapons, he's as good as anyone, although at his age, he could fall apart at any moment.
9. Brett Favre (Vikings, 1991) - Brett Favre is benefiting from a very talented roster, but with or without it this top-10 all-time QB is still a top-10 quarterback in the NFL today. The injuries from last year are not affecting him. The guy is an attention-whore and and it pains me to say it but he's still getting it done. Favre also won a ring, way back after the 1995 season.
8. Donovan McNabb (Eagles, 1999) - Not as old as Warner or Favre, but much older than the four guys directly in front of him, McNabb has been disrespected by fans, a diva WR and, most recently, his coach throughout the years. Nevertheless, McNabb has stayed steady as a top-10 QB through it all, and as everyone waits for him to fall of the cliff each new year, he keeps winning games and playing well, especially down the stretch in the regular season, with the Eagles going 6-2 in December the past two years and McNabb throwing for 11 TDs and only 2 interceptions during that span.
The future of the NFL
7. Jay Cutler (Bears, 2006) - The NFL should pay close attention to the three guys on this tier, because the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and the three guys in this tier, along with one or two guys from the "Rising stars" and "Question marks with potential" tiers will be the face of the league six years from now. I believe Cutler will always be stuck at the bottom of that elite tier, due mostly to poor leadership skills. Outside of that abortion of a first game against Green Bay, he has impressed me a lot, avoiding sacks by getting rid of the ball quickly while avoiding interceptions by always making the right decision and an accurate throw. At the end of this season, Denver may think it got the best deal in trading Cutler for Orton and picks. But eight years from now, Orton will be lucky to be playing while Cutler will be one of the league's ten best players.
6. Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 2005) - Brett Favre may have beaten the Packers, but Green Bay shouldn't regret their decision a year and a half ago to go with Rodgers over the legend. Rodgers has quietly put up great numbers since he got the starting job. He even put up great numbers against Minnesota despite poor play by his offensive line. Minnesota better take their wins now, because when Favre retires for good or runs out of gas, Aaron Rodgers will slap them silly twice a year for the next decade, Peterson or no Peterson.
5. Philip Rivers (San Diego, 2004) - As a fan, I really dislike Philip Rivers. I dislike his accent and his attitude and his smacktalk. So it pains me to say this, but I believe that by 2016 Rivers will be considered the unchallenged best quarterback in the NFL. Manning will be 40, Brady 39 and Brees 37 (all three will likely still be playing but not at the same level they are now). Roethlisberger will likely be out of the league by then, at age 34. Unless Matt Ryan or Stafford or someone like that surprises me, I think Rivers will be the NFL's #1 star by then. For now, he has to settle in behind two of the top 10 QBs of all time (as well as a couple others who will likely make the Hall of Fame). But eventually he'll surpass them all.
The Anomaly
4. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers, 2004) - There is no better player to spark up a debate on than Ben Roethlisberger. His stats are rarely overwhelming. He's started the same number of games as Eli Manning, but has been sacked 80 more times. He may never throw for 4,000 yards. Because of his playing style and reliance on physical skill, he will be lucky to have a career as long as a similar player like Steve McNair, whose skill eroded considerably the last 4 years of a 13 year career. And honestly, I just don't think Ben goes through progressions as quickly or effectively as other top five quarterbacks. He especially does not match up with the other top quarterbacks in the league when it comes to timing and scripted plays.
And yet, in many ways, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback in the NFL. He's on the same Super Bowl pace as Tom Brady. He has turned into a real leader on the field. He is not shaken by the big moment. He is by far the hardest quarterback in the league to take down. He is the best improviser in the NFL. As Collinsworth noted in week one, he has the NFL's best and most often used pump fakes. The time between the moment he decides where to throw the ball and the moment the ball leaves his hand is near nilch. Although his reads are a little slow, he creates enough time to get through them and makes good decisions. He's an accurate passer. He's a great play caller (much better than his coordinator). He makes a half dozen plays every game that would be impossible for anyone else. In short, Ben Roethlisberger is unquestionably the most exciting player in the NFL, and one more Super Bowl win away from a Hall of Fame spot.
As a Steeler fan, I would not trade Ben Roethlisberger for any of the three guys in front of him on this list. He is our guy and he is a Steeler. The top three quarterbacks in the league would still be great as a Steeler in our offense, but not as good as Ben is. On the flip side, I think Ben would look worse under center in New Orleans or Indianapolis. He just isn't that "drop back, read the play in a half second, throw the ball to a spot" kind of quarterback. He shouldn't have to be. He's great how he is and he's one of the most unique players in football. He won't last to 35 years old in the league due to his playing style, but for the next six years I'd take him over anyone.
Cream o' Crop
3. Tom Brady (Patriots, 2000) - Brady looked timid and rusty this year until this past week, but his "drop" to #3 is more about the two guys in front of him who have played well rather than Brady himself. He has said he'd like to play until he's 40, which is 7 or 8 more years, and I could see that. Tom Brady personifies the qualities of good decisions, fast thinking and accuracy that a quarterback needs. He's easy to hate if you're not a Patriot fan because he plays up the popped collar persona and things always seem to go right for him. In 2001 when the Patriots won the Super Bowl, Brady really only belonged in the "Average" category, or perhaps at best "Rising star." Since then he's won over all critics and will certainly go down as one of the 10 best quarterbacks of all time.
2. Drew Brees (Saints, 2001) - Remember before the 2004 season, when the Chargers were the worst organization in the NFL, we had trouble finding 4 wins on their upcoming schedule and Drew Brees was only keeping the seat warm for Philip Rivers? That seems like a long time ago now. Brees proved his talent, ended up in New Orleans and has never looked back. Brees plays for the best offense in the NFL and you could add him to 10 other NFL teams and instantly make them the best pro offense in the world. Brees makes the right decisions faster than anyone, throws accurately and leads on and off the field. Those are the only three quarterback qualities that matter; everything else is icing.
1. Peyton Manning (Colts, 1998) - The more things change, the more they stay the same. There have been arguments for five years that Brady is better, but no one argues that now. There will be (fair) arguments that Brees is better over the next 3-4 years, but don't believe it.
Imagine that aliens investigate our planet looking to take over, but they mistake NFL quarterbacks as the leader of the U.S.A. instead of politicians (not hard to believe, surprisingly). So they create a robo-human in a lab that has all the ability, work ethic and intangibles to be the perfect NFL quaterback. The result would be Peyton Manning.
Manning knows more than any other quarterback. He makes less mistakes than any other quarterback. He is the best ever at making defenders look stupid. He is the most accurate passer in the league and will never be outworked. He has proven that early playoff struggles were bad luck by winning a Super Bowl and taking down the Patriots along the way. He is on his way to a 4th league MVP award.
Peyton Manning has been the best quarterback in the NFL since at least 2003 and is still the best today. Favre better add to every (positive) career stat he currently owns, because Manning will own them all eventually. When we look back during his Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Manning will be in the conversation with Baugh, Graham, Unitas, Montana and Marino for best ever. Until then, he'll have to settle for #1 on this list.
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