UMass Off Season News Wednesday, February 3, 2010

I know that with the Super Bowl coming up what you really all want to read about is the Massachusetts Minutemen.

First things first. Although neither school has announced anything, there are reports that the next two UMass games against UNH will be played at Gillette Stadium.

I think this is a great opportunity, though it worries me a bit. UMass Basketball played Memphis earlier this year at TD Garden (where the Bruins and Celtics play) and the attendance was pathetic. It was a great game, but I was very disappointed that only the lowest level of the the arena was opened for seating and that was only about 80% full.

If the same thing happened for the football team, I can't imagine the uproar it would cause from people who want to cut football. I'm hoping for 30,000 for each game.

Secondly, it's National Letter of Intent Day. UMass added 11 recruits to go along with 6 Transfers. One is from Central Michigan which is FBS so he'll be able to play right away. The others are from Hofstra and Northeastern. As they both cut their programs, they will also be able to play right away.

Players of note are QB Brandon Hill who comes from the same hometown and went to the same high school as former Blue Hen Joe Flacco and LB Stanley Andre, who comes from the same hometown as yours truly. Here's the UMass release.

Diving Into the AFC Playoff Scenarios Tuesday, December 22, 2009

(Note: I first wrote all this as a fanpost at SBNation. Then I copy and pasted it here.)

(If your're only interested in the ultimate conclusions of these scenarios, scroll down to the bold text at the bottom.)

The Steelers may still qualify for the playoffs! Since I spent a while thinking this through yesterday, I thought I'd share my understanding of our situation for anyone interested in who we really need to cheer for and how much it all matters to the Steelers. All this assumes the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Dolphins. Scenarios exist in which the Steelers could lose to the Ravens and still qualify for the post-season, but literally 10 out of 10 games would have to go our way. Not likely. So, assuming the Steelers finish 9-7, there is good news:

1. If 4 out of 4 games go our way this week, we control our own destiny. That means HOU, JAX, NYJ, and DEN losing at MIA, NE, IND, and PHI, respectively. All four teams are road underdogs, although it remains to be seen how long Peyton and company will play against NYJ.
   
2. No matter what happens this week, if PIT wins, PIT cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Even if all four of those games go against us, there will still be a chance for us to proceed given the right Week 17 outcomes.
   
3. If we win, we have a great chance of being in the SNF game next week. NFC scenarios are unlikely to be 100% sure to decide playoff spots. If we control our own destiny as per point 1, we'll likely be on SNF. But even if NYJ won, MIA would then control their own destiny and we would play on SNF for that reason.
   
4. There is no "one game" or "one team" that we need to go our way. Any ONE of the following teams could win out and we could still qualify: DEN, JAX, NYJ, HOU, TEN. Also, BAL could win in week 17 and we can still qualify. We are not dependant on any one team.

Having said that, some games matter more than others, and there are many teams in better positions than us. Our advantage is that none of those teams are very good.

There are really two tiers of teams to get past: BAL/DEN at 8-6 and JAX/NYJ/MIA/HOU/TEN at 7-7. The more teams we can get past in one "tier," the more breathing room we have in the other tier. There are only two spots, so at the end of the day we have to get past all but one of these teams. However, there are many ways to accomplish this feat.

Let's first look at the 7-7 tier. MIA plays HOU and PIT, so not all teams can win out. But if they could, their order in playoff tiebreakers would look like this (conference record in parenthesis): JAX (8-4), MIA (7-5), NYJ (7-5), HOU (6-6), PIT (6-6), TEN (5-7). MIA finishes ahead of NYJ based on season sweep, HOU finishes ahead of PIT based on common opponents. When you look at this list, things look like they're in bad shape, but keep these things in mind:

1. PIT can eliminate MIA in week 17 with a win.
   
2. All these teams are 7-7 and have two chances to lose. Odds are the teams will be split among 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 at the end of the year, because they're all pretty average. We're assuming PIT is one of the 9-7 teams.
   
3. Finally, these "standings" are not carved in stone and can change based on how the chips fall these last two weeks and how the DEN/BAL games go.
   

Now certainly, PIT is stuck behind JAX and NYJ. If both teams win out, the Steelers have no shot. But if one of them lose a game, we have a shot, and if both of them lose just one game, we are practically at the head of the class! That is because there are multiple scenarios in which HOU can finish behind PIT despite both teams winning out.

For this reason, I'll call NYJ, JAX, and HOU the "Little 3." If we can pass all three, we are dependent on very little as far as DEN/BAL, and only need one of them to lose one game out of the three we're not involved in. Keep in mind: These are not very good teams. One of them is likely to lose.

Even if we only pass two of the Little 3, there are still opportunities to make the playoffs if BAL and DEN really blow it.

Obviously, to pass JAX or NYJ, we need them to lose a game this week or next week. NYJ could actually win the division if they win out, but in that case, NE would take their spot in the wildcard chase ahead of us, so it's moot for the Steelers.

For HOU, even if they win out, then if TEN wins out too, TEN will jump ahead of HOU within the division. Wildcard ties are broke first within the division, so in that case TEN would eliminate HOU and then we would win a tiebreaker over TEN. Besides that, if HOU and PIT finished at 9-7 and TEN loses a game, and then DEN beats PHI but loses to KC, PIT could get in in that situation as well, and BAL's game against HOU would become irrelevant. For a PIT/HOU/DEN tiebreaker, it would come down to Strength of Victory. Right now, DEN has the edge over PIT, but if some otherwise irrelevant games went our way, we could jump them. (I wouldn't attempt calculate this unless it is still a possibility next week!) If we ended up in that tiebreaker, BAL's game would become irrelevant because if they win, the Strength of Victory determines the 6th seed, and if BAL loses, SoV determines the 5th seed and if the Steelers lose SoV to DEN, they would then lose to HOU based on common schedule.

In sum, we need to jump ahead of at least two of the LIttle 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), and ideally, all 3. This would mean those teams losing a game, although in HOU's case, there are other possibilities to jump ahead of them (TEN winning out or that complicated paragraph above). If all three are eliminated, we only need to climb ahead of EITHER BAL or DEN. If only two are eliminated, we must climb ahead of both.

So let's jump back to BAL's and DEN's games for a moment. If we beat BAL, they can beat OAK and tie us at 9-7, but would finish ahead of us in any playoff scenario because they finish ahead of us in the division due to division record. Finishing ahead of Baltimore is simple: They must lose at OAK in week 17. This isn't as far fetched as it seems, as OAK now has 5 victories and even Jamarcus Russell has now contributed to a win.

However, as I just stated, if we jump ahead of all three of the LIttle 3, we don't need to finish ahead of BAL. In that case, we could alternatively jump ahead of DEN, in which case they would have to lose just one game: @PHI or vs. KC. PHI is playing very well right now and has not yet clinched the division. (And Denver does not look good.)

So, reviewing, if we pass all of the Little 3 (JAX, NYJ, HOU), only one of BAL/OAK's 3 games have to go our way in order to qualify for a wildcard spot. If we pass only two of the Little 3, we need to pass both BAL and DEN by having BAL lose to OAK and having DEN lose one of their games (in most cases).

Passing the Little 3 means having them lose a game, except for HOU, which needs to lose a game or have TEN win out, OR if we end up in a 3-way tie with HOU and DEN, we could advance based on Strength of Victory if certain games go our way. This would happen if DEN beat PHI but lost to KC (if those two games were switched around, DEN would win 3-way-tiebreaker based on 7-5 conference schedule and HOU would be ahead of us due to common opponents tiebreaker).

Having thought all this through, I'd estimate the following odds of qualifying for the postseason for the wildcard contenders, assuming for each team that it won out:

BAL and DEN; 100%

JAX: 85%

MIA: 75%

NYJ: 70%

PIT: 60%

HOU: 45%

TEN:5%

The odds may seem high, but keep in mind that many of these teams will lose the next two weeks, eliminating themselves and helping out the teams who manage to win. TEN is in bad shape. The only teams they beat in tiebreakers are HOU and MIA. Otherwise, they need all but one of the following things to happen: BAL to lose twice, DEN to lose twice, JAX to lose at least once, NYJ to lose at least once, and PIT to beat BAL but lose to MIA. That means they MUST have 4 of 5 games go their way, PLUS have JAX and NYJ to each lose once. (Or have 5 of 5 go their way and have either JAX or NYJ lose once.) Makes all these analysts saying that "TEN could be dangerous!" seem silly since, while they're playing well, the Titans have almost no shot to qualify for January football.

So, first of all, Go Steelers! Second of all, BOO Baltimore! Thirdly, Boo Denver! Finally, Boo HOU/Boo JAX/Boo NYJ/Go TEN!

Another One Bites the Dust Thursday, December 3, 2009

Just saw this on umasshoops.com: Hofstra just cut their football team.

Northeastern cutting football, while it did piss me off, was by no means a surprise. They were a terrible program which played on a high school field (Massachusetts High School, not Texas High School). Hofstra is a shock. I'm too shocked to be upset by it. That's two schools who dropped football in two weeks. Hofstra beat UMass at home their last game. While listening to it, I honestly thought to myself "Hofstra's only in Long Island. It'd be a hike but next time UMass plays there, I'm going." Now I guess I can't. Worse, there are now two schools (BU and Hofstra) who can claim they beat UMass in their final game as a program.

The CAA North is now without a full time CAA member. I'm extremely worried about the future of UNH, Maine, URI and especially UMass football. The four of us are all we got left, and I don't know that we (UMass) can trust them (the other three) to keep football. As a result, I don't know that I trust UMass to keep football.

I never make signs, but I fully planned on bringing a huge one to Matthews Arena (home of NU hockey) January 10th saying "WE HAVE FOOTBALL!" or something to that extent. I don't know how true that statement will be then.

I hope I'm overreacting.

EDIT: UMass AD John McCutcheon says the football program is safe. I emailed him before reading this asking what we could do to ensure it's safety. I encourage all other UMass fans (and Steeler fans...we did give you Mark Whipple) to do the same. Here's the email address:

jmccutch@admin.umass.edu

Northeastern University Cuts Football Sunday, November 22, 2009

Northeastern University has apparently cut football. It's all over twitter and a few posters on UMasshoops.com I trust claim to have the official press release. As I'm typing this blog post, the Boston CBS affiliate, WBZ, just confirmed it.

This upsets me greatly. As much as I hate Northeastern (and I hate them a lot), the fate of the Huskies and the Minutemen football teams are not independent. Northeastern is was a short road trip every other year, possibly the shortest trip, and I'd assume, one of the least expensive.

My question becomes, where does it end? UMass is by far one of the most successful FCS teams in the Northeast, in terms of both wins and attendance (ok... so maybe not wins this year at 5-6, but we're talking historically), and we have alumni who are always dying to cut football in hopes that the extra funding will make basketball a power house. I'm willing to bet alumni who want to cut football are more numerous at the other northern CAA schools, and I wonder if Northeastern cutting it is the first of many dominoes.

Case in point, a UMass beat writer named Matt Vautour posted the following article recently about copying something BC and Notre Dame do pretty successfully. Everyone knows about the football game the two play, but they also play a hockey game the night before in the same school the football game will take place, and the attendance is boosted greatly at hockey since all the football fans are there anyway. Long story short, the writer suggested Hockey East and CAA football did the same thing in hopes of increasing attendance for both (Note to Hockey East and CAA, I'm waiting for something like this before I go all the way up to Orono. Just saying.). I posted this on a college hockey board I frequent, and the responses from Northeastern fans was "we hate our team, they're an embarrassment, cut them." The response from Maine and UNH fans was "since when have we had a football team?"

Will Maine and New Hampshire keep football if no one cares about it? What about Rhode Island? Hofstra? If these teams all get rid of it, who is there left for UMass to play?

It might be time to seriously consider making the jump to the MAC/Sunbelt/CUSA/Whatever FBS conference will take us. Yeah, it's pretty dumb playing for TheBigFootballBlog.com Bowl (no offense to that excellent web page), but I'd rather be playing football in a meaningless bowl game (or trying to get to a meaningless bowl game) than not playing football at all. Just saying.

As a side note, I'm upset with Northeastern. When I was at UMass, the football conference was called the Atlantic 10, which is the conference UMass plays in for all sports. Rhode Island and Richmond were the only other A-10 teams in the conference (compared to 3 America East teams, 5 CAA teams and 1 Big East team), so it didn't really make sense, but I was happy with it. Then Northeastern switched from America East in all sports to CAA in all sports. That gave the CAA 6 football teams (NU, Delaware, JMU, Townson, William & Mary, and Hofstra) enough to make it's own league. Immediately, the CAA teams left the Atlantic 10 conference and formed their own conference. They then robbed the A10 further, luring Richmond away. This killed the A10, as you need 6 members. Thankfully, the CAA invited the rest of the A-10 into the conference, and without much of a choice, all accepted.

So, why does it matter? A rose by any other name will still have thorns, right? WRONG. The CAA is a Virginian based conference (for the most part). By CAA rules (EDITED BASED ON jackman's comments), full CAA members get in the football conference automatically until 2017. Old Dominion, in Virginia, took advantage of this and started up a program and will join the South in '11. Not a big deal. Georgia State (guess where that is), starts up a program in 2010 and will also take advantage of this, will join the North in '12. Big deal.

Why put Georgia State in the North? Well, because it is an expensive plane trip for all of us in the conference. The Southern teams don't want to take a plane to Georgia every other year. As they have the voting rights (the CAA voted to let Georgia Southern in as a full time member, the football only affiliates had no say), they're sticking us with the team they voted to accept. I think it's revenge for the Civil War or something.

It's Northeastern's fault, and they're bailing on us without having to pay for them at all. Northeastern University is officially dead to me.

Patriots @ Colts Sunday, November 15, 2009

Any other coach in the NFL would be justifiably fired for losing that game. It's now officially the worst coaching job I've ever seen. Even though to me it looked like Faulk caught the ball past the first down mark, it's still terrible, especially knowing you couldn't challenge cause you ran out of timeouts. I just watched Belichick's post game press conference. He said he was trying to win the game. That's pretty much all I want to say right now about the game.

Larry Johnson to Green Bay makes the most sense. Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Houston Texans, who made more sense than anyone else for Larry Johnson, have stated they will not sign him. On Dan Patrick's show yesterday, Larry said he doesn't get to choose where he goes, but someone with at least a .500 record makes sense. After all, Larry's team problems had a lot to do with the Chiefs losing every week, much like Randy Moss with past teams. And only a strong organization can take in Larry considering his actions towards women and his homophobic slurs.

Then again, if your team is doing well, why bring in a distraction like Larry Johnson? It only makes sense if you're in serious need of a running back. That's why the Texans made the most sense, since they seem to have little confidence in Slaton and Moats. (Man I'm glad Slaton slipped through my fingers in my fantasy draft this past August.)

That's why I'm wondering why the Steelers' name has been thrown around. They have quality running backs. Even if Parker stinks, they're not going to cut him midseason and Mendenhall and Moore are running and blocking with the best of them. I wonder why the Packers or Giants haven't been mentioned. Both teams are contending but are a little desperate right now, and, in my opinion, either one could use another back. I suppose you could put the Giants in the "quality organization" category that might not be seen signing a character like Johnson. (Besides, I doubt he could maneuver the media there.)

So why not Green Bay? Grant is good but has no one with credibility behind them, and the Packers could certainly use a spark. The Giants could use a spark too, and are on a bye week.

On further review, Wallace outplaying Harvin Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Rookie WR, 1st round pick:
28 receptions, 369 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 fumble, 39 yards rushing, 6 plays of 20 yards or more

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers WR, 3rd round pick:
25 receptions, 437 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, 43 yards rushing, NINE plays of 20 yards or more, Sunday evening news show personalities with same name: 1

Mike Wallace is the current Rookie of the Year, although you'll hear almost no national media taking notice. Wallace isn't even a starter and he's outplaying Harvin.

Steelers-Broncos Review: Defense shines without starters

The Steelers pounded the Broncos 28-10, and the winning margin would have been wider if not for a couple stupid turnovers when the Steelers were rolling.

Ryan Clark, Lawrence Timmons, Travis Kirschke, and Aaron Smith (IR) were out for the Steelers but the defense didn't miss a beat. Last time we lost DE Aaron Smith to IR in 2007, the defense crumbled. I've been impressed this year, and that's without Ziggy Hood getting much playing time. Nick Eason sured up the DL. The average age of our defensive line is 32, and features guys that have had unremarkable careers. Tomlin, LeBeau and John Mitchell have done incredible jobs there.

The linebackers have come on strong the past couple weeks. I would like to have Timmons healthy but Keyaron Fox is proving he deserves a starting spot too. It's a great problem to have. Harrison was steady as always and LaMarr Woodley is finally waking up from his first half slumber. I'm not sure what Woodley's problem has been. Maybe he had some life-problems that disrupted his play emotionally. He was much better last night. The tackling by everyone on defense was almost textbook perfect.

And of course Tyrone Carter played great in Ryan Clark's absense. We'll be hearing lots from the media this week about what a great "replacement" Clark was, but the national media doesn't realize that Tyrone Carter spends a lot of time on the field even when Clark and Polamalu are both healthy. He's a steady veteran, and Clark's position is obviously more replaceable than Troy's. Good thing since Clark is a free agent after the season. But expect Ryan Mundy, not Carter, to take over starting duties in 2010.

Roethlisberger and Ward continued their dominance, Rashard Mendenhall has (thankfully) proved me wrong, Santonio had a great game and Mike Wallace would garner rookie of the year consideration if Percy Harvin wasn't tearing it up in Minnesota. But the story of the offense has been the offensive line. These guys are so improved from last year. They are now a strength and a component of the team that can be relied on. Max Starks deserves to start in the pro bowl at left tackle.

The special teams have regressed to 2007 quality, but overall the Steelers are playing great football right now and look better than the 2008 Steelers who dominated on defense but were often impotent on offense. A lot of that has to do with Mendenhall, who still has room to improve but has effectively ended Willie Parker's career.

No time to rest, though, as the Steelers face the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals in five days. I have confidence that the Steelers are the better team but they need to play their best football to make sure they don't give Palmer and his troops a chance at the end like last time around. It's the most important game of the season by far.

Hats off to Brandon Marshall, who cannot be contained. The rest of the Broncos did not impress. The defense looked good in the first half and fell apart. Worst of all, in post-game quotes the Broncos sound like they're merely conceding that the Steelers are a great team and are not pointing the finger at themselves and the ways they need to improve to be true contenders. It looks to me like the true AFC contenders are the big three (NE, IND, PIT) plus the Steelers' little brothers in the AFC North (CIN, BAL).

Belichick: 10 Teams Get It, 22 Don't Friday, November 6, 2009

Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports interviewed Patriots Coach Bill Belichick on everything football.

The whole interview is really interesting, coming from a guy who seems to be interested in nothing BUT football. My favorite part was the end, where Belichick talked about Jimmy Johnson's theory on what it takes to win in the NFL:

“You’re really only competing with about 10 teams a year. If you just say out of the way, the other 20 teams will screw it up themselves. Whether it’s ownership or personnel or coaching or some combination of factors.” Ego, internal struggle, something will happen to two-thirds of the teams, that was Jimmy’s theory. That leaves you with about 10 teams that you’re going to have to really battle with. Those teams have it together. They’re going to make good decisions and if you play bad football, they’re going to take advantage of it. They’re going to find some undrafted guy or some middle-round pick or some veteran free agent who is going to spark their team. Pittsburgh is always going to be there. Indianapolis is always going to be there. They may not win it, but they’ll be there. You’re going to have to beat them. Philadelphia is going to be there. Yeah, [quarterback Donovan] McNabb might get hurt one year and they might go 7-9, but they’re going to be there. You’re still battling them on every front."

I really like the theory, and perhaps more than any other sport, in the NFL, there are organizations who get it, and organizations who don't. Here's my list of the 10 teams who get it, in order: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York Giants, Tennessee, Denver, Miami (under Parcells)... Wow, that's it. I could only find nine, and the last two are a stretch.

I suppose if Cowher, Holmgren, Gruden, or Shanahan return next year, we could see more teams who know what they're doing.

UMass Recap Sunday, November 1, 2009

Sorry I haven't posted in a while.

When I last showed up, UMass was in controll of its own destiny, having just given the Wildcats their first conference loss and were about to travel to Richmond to (hopefully) give them their first loss. It didn't quite work out that way. I only listened to the first quarter, but I'm told the defense played great, but the offense played terribly. Havens got benched in favor of red shirt senior Scott Woodward as a result of throwing too many interceptions and UMass lost 30-something to 12. There was talk about starting Woodward yesterday on umasshoops.com, but Coach Morris stuck with his guy.

Yesterday, the game was on TV, which was great since it's in Orono, Maine which I've never been to. Why? Because I'm told it takes like 6 hours to get there. I'm waiting for the Hockey Team and Football team to both be there in the same weekend. Then I figure I could get a hotel and make the trip worth my while.

Anyway, the defense played ok, the offense played terrible again. Havens was benched again at halftime after throwing 1 pick and losing a fumble. Woodward didn't play too much better, throwing 3 picks (though two of those were in the last couple of minutes on fourth downs where he was just trying to avoid a sack and keep UMass playoff hopes alive). Maine beat UMass 19-9. The only bright spot was UMass picked off a 2pt conversion and returned it for 2pts of its own.

UMass is now 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the CAA. While I suppose it is possible to make the playoffs at 7-4 (I think UNH was a 7-4 playoff team a couple of years ago), it's highly unlikely. Especially cause the Football team hasn't won a road game all year. The one quality win is against UNH. As JMU stinks this year (though they just beat Delaware yesterday to get their first conference win), there aren't any quality opponents left. I just don't think the resume is good enough for the post season.

UMass clearly has an issue at quarterback. As much as I like him, Havens has thrown 14 interception to 8 touch downs. That's not getting it done. It doesn't really matter what Woodward does, as he's gone next year, but he has 5 interceptions to 2 touchdowns. The other quarterbacks on the bench haven't played yet.

I hate to say it, but it's time to look ahead to next year. Is Havens the quarterback of the future (as in, next year)? If so, play him in hopes he learns not to turn the ball over every other possession.

If not, I'd play Octavious Hawkins, a red shirt sophomore UMass has, able to run really well. You'd have to run a more option style offense, or at least put a few option plays in for him. I don't like the option. I find it boring. But I dislike losing more than I dislike the option, and if it gives UMass the best chance to win, I'm all for implementing it. You have to play him to see what you got.

If neither of these two are the solution, UMass does have some freshman I've never heard of on the bench. They could give him a shot. The only other alternative is to recruit a new quarterback, either an FBS transfer or else a freshman out of high school.

In the mean time, no matter who is at quarterback, I think UMass should also focus on running the ball more. Both Tony Nelson and Jon Hernandez are among the conference's leading rushers. Use them. Run the ball down the defense's throats, keep possession of the ball, and rely on your defense (which has been pretty good) to win field position battles.

Northeastern is next week. They stink. UMass should beat them easily.

Manning on Top, Big Ben an Anomaly in Quarterback Rankings Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Below are my promised NFL quarterback rankings from 1 to 50, with comments. I decided to go Bill Simmons on ya'll and present them in 12 tiers from worst to first. Next to each quarterback I've listed his current team and his first year out of college.

Rankings are based on ability as of right now. Rankings do not take age or potential into account, although old guys are likely to move down quickly in the future. Quarterbacks are certainly eligible to move up with improved performances but this is how I see things as of this moment. "Rings" are not taken into account, although the ability to perform when it matters is certainly relevant.

I started with a list of current starters plus guys who are most likely to start at some point this year due to injuries or benching. Then I added in a couple more guys such as Troy Smith and Nate Davis whom I am personally interested in. Therefore, guys like Mark Brunell and Jon Kitna are not ranked.

Established Disasters

50. Michael Vick (Eagles, 2001) - Vick could certainly move up in the future, but right now there is no ungodly reason he should take snaps as a regular quarterback in an actual game, having been in prison for almost two years.

49. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders, 2007) - Russell's struggles, inaccuracy and poor work ethic are well-documented, and everyone is down on him. Hard to imagine he'll be in the league two years from today.

48. Matt Leinart (Cardinals, 2006) - Old Man Warner could certainly beat out a lot of current starters, but when Leinart has come in even on mop up duty, he's been an unqualified disaster.

47. Alex Smith (49ers, 2005) - Smith's career was a misfire right from the start and is destined to go down in history with the Couches, Carrs and Bollers of the world, not to mention the other A. Smith bust, Akili.

46. Chris Simms (Broncos, 2003) - Was liked by a lot of analysts early on, but the poor guy lost a lot of time to unlucky health problems. Nowadys his place on NFL rosters rests only his past potential and not current ability.

45. Vince Young (Titans, 2006) - Young believes he can work hard, be a backup for a while and eventually recover his career. Don't count on it.

44. Rex Grossman (Texans, 2003) - The first quarterback on our list to make it to a Super Bowl, Grossman vs. Manning was the most ridiculous QB mismatch in Super Bowl history. Somehow, Grossman is still hanging onto a roster spot, wondering what could have become of his career had he not been injured so much his first couple seasons.

Not quite dead yet

43. Derek Anderson (Browns, 2005) - In 2007, Anderson's poor accuracy was saved by career years by Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards in addition to an unbelievably easy schedule. Since then, his true colors have shown, but his teammates seem to like him a lot, so I can't quite pronounce his career a failure just yet.

42. Trent Edwards (Bills, 2007) - Many were high on Edwards before the season. Don't ask me why.

41. Brady Quinn (Browns, 2007) - Congratulations, Brady, you're the best quarterback of the 2007 NFL Draft class! It's difficult to evaluate Quinn because he's been on the field for very few snaps. However, I haven't heard Browns coaches or front office types say anything positive about him other than "Well, Anderson sucks, so let's try Quinn." Not exactly a vote of confidence.

40. Seneca Wallace (Seahawks, 2003) - Despite his long NFL tenure, he has very few snaps as a QB but I put him on this list because I do think he could move up a couple tiers in the right situation.

Clearly backups at best, but paid like real quarterbacks

39. Dan Orlovsky (Texans, 2005) - With Shaub's injury history, we're likely to see Orlovsky in some meaningful games this season. At that point, he'll swiftly reveal whether he's got real ability or if that self-induced safety was characteristic of his play.

38. Sage Rosenfels (Vikings, 2001) - Would he have gotten the start over Jackson if Favre hadn't showed up? Probably, since he was favored by VP of Player Personnel Rick Spielman. Favre's arrival signaled the demise of his last real chance to be an NFL starter.

Question marks with potential

37, 36, 35. Chad Henne (Dolphins, 2008), Josh Freeman (Bucs, 2009), Josh Johnson (Bucs, 2008) - I have absolutely no idea about these guys, and neither can anyone else except perhaps the actual coaching staff of the Dolphins and Bucs.

34. Nate Davis (49ers, 2009) - Davis could be a future playmaker in this league. He was incredible at Ball State and MAC QBs have a decent track record in the NFL (all things considered). Many in SF see him as the heir apparent. Plus he went to Bellaire High School in Ohio, my alma mater's biggest rival. I like the guy.

33. Matt Stafford (Lions 2009) - The biggest strike against him is that he plays for the Lions. Other than that, I'm clueless, but he was great in college.

32. Mark Sanchez (Jets, 2009) - He's looked good and bad, but so far his team has been a lot better than him, leading to a 3-2 record. We'll see. Another college star, though that means little.

In the perfect situation, the ceiling is "playoffs"

31. Tavaris Jackson (Vikings, 2006) - We've seen what Tavaris offers. With an uber-talented team, he can take you to the playoffs, but that's pretty much his ceiling. That will be a theme with all the guys in this group. By the way, what does it say about the quality of quarterback play in your league when Tavaris Jackson is the 31st best signal caller in the league? Not good.

30. Marc Bulger (Rams, 2000) - He was once quite good, but that's when his team was top ten talent. Nowadays, he's worse, and his team is at rock bottom.

29. Daunte Culpepper (Lions, 1999) - Similarly Daunte had a statistically mind boggling season in 2004 (4700 yards, 39 TDs) but the offensive talent certainly helped. Nevertheless, the Vikings never won two playoff games in one season while he was the quarterback, thus the playoff ceiling. He's never been the same since his injury.

28. Byron Leftwich (Bucs, 2003) - Just replace the three names above with Byron and you have the same description. At times, when the schedule was easy and when Fred Taylor and co. had it together, he had it together. But even then, a deep playoff run was out of the question. As recently as last year, he looked good with a championship-caliber Steeler team, but with the Bucs, we see what happens when the talent around him doesn't match up.

27. Troy Smith (Ravens, 2007) - Troy is the one guy on this tier who could move way up if he got the chance. Should've started for Baltimore last year, but his sickness gave Flacco a shot. I liked Smith better than most coming out of college and I still think he can be a good starter in the NFL.

26. Shaun Hill (49ers, 2002) - Shaun Hill has been maxing out his potential this year so far with the 49ers. If all goes well, he could take them to the divisional round, but his talent still rests well within the playoff ceiling range.

Eight average men

25. Jason Campbell (Redskins, 2005) - Campbell went 5 or 6 games last year without an interception out of the gate. He's always had below average (and overpaid) talent around him. Although nothing special, given the right circumstances I could see him moving up two tiers one day. He should've been happy when he heard Snyder was trying to trade him; with Snyder in charge, the situation in Washington will never be good.

24. Jake Delhomme (Panthers, 1997) - Our second QB on the list to start a Super Bowl (and lose), Delhomme has captained a lot of winning teams in Charlotte. He's been melting down in recent months, but Kurt Warner has done that and bounced back as much as anyone. He still has the confidence and admiration of his teammates, and I'm willing to give him a few more weeks before bumping him down to "not quite dead yet" status. Once again, its a sad state of QB play in the league when the 24th best option is Jake Delhomme.

23. David Garrard (Jaguars, 2002) - It's funny how fast the media likes to turn on quarterbacks. In 2007 Garrard was thought of as a top 15 QB. Suddenly he's a never-was. The Jaguars have shown some life the last couple weeks, which to me proves that Garrard belongs not in the trash heap or the throne room, but somewhere in the middle.

22. Chad Pennington (Dolphins, 2000) - Pennington may never play again, so this ranking is probably moot. But at his best Pennington was a smart and slithery QB with strong leadership skills. Theoretically, if he can still play, there's no reason those qualities should have faded.

21. Jeff Garcia (Free agent, 1994 CFL/1999 NFL) - Jeff Garcia consistently outplays everyone he replaces. He got the shaft in Oakland. His worst quality is that he's getting quite old, which isn't good for a short QB who makes good use of his athleticism.

20. Kerry Collins (Titans, 1995) - Our list's third Super Bowl QB, Collins also lost the big game in his lone appearance. Opinions will range on Collins and his ability throughout his career, but nowadays he relies solely on accuracy and good decision making, which could help him keep a job for a couple more seasons, especially under a conservative coach like Jeff Fisher.

19. Matt Cassel (Chiefs, 2005) - Cassel is paid better than the #18 man on this list, but was only able to take the formerly 18-1 Patriots to an 11-5 record despite an incredibly easy schedule. The results in KC haven't been good, but the talent around him ain't great either. The college backup's grade currently stands at incomplete.

18. Kyle Orton (Broncos, 2005) - I will never understand why the Bears waffled back and forth between Orton and Grossman for so long. At every opportunity, Orton outplayed the 2003 first round pick. At the very least, one can't deny that Orton is a likable guy who makes good decisions, which are really two of a quarterback's most important qualities. Also, I like Kyle Orton because he looks like a player from the 30s, slingin' touchdowns to Don Hutson.

The Young Stars

17. Joe Flacco (Ravens, 2008) - The star sophomore has taken the next step this season. His game-killing interception in the AFC Championship game likely haunting him, I don't expect a repeat of that kind of mistake this season. No sophomore slump in sight.

16. Matt Ryan (Falcons, 2008) - I was skeptical of Ryan's abilities before the season and expected a sophomore slump. Flaws have shone through but Ryan is clearly the real deal and will lead the Falcons for a long time.

Cagey veterans

15. Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks, 1998) - Until a couple weeks ago, I always thought this guy's name was spelled "Hasselback." Amazing. I have no idea what "cagey" veterans means, but all five of these guys have been around for a while and can still get it done. They're all at turning points in their careers, too; they could maintain their skill for a few more seasons, move to elite status, or fall down the ladder. Although Hasselbeck is unlikely to be a star again, he was a top-5 QB for a few years and if not for the anonymity of Seahawks players the many injuries they've sustained lately, he'd be thought of more highly. Hasselbeck has been to a Super Bowl and lost, making mistakes at a couple key moments at Super Bowl XL following questionable penalties.

14. Tony Romo (Cowboys, 2003) - Although he's only been starting since 2006, Romo is older than people realize. He's taken a beating lately from Dallas fans, media, and former players. But to overlook Romo's talent is a big mistake, as he'll have a few great games this year that turn everyone's opinions around. Certainly, if he could prove that bad luck and not shaky confidence is to blame for late season / playoff collapses, he could move up this list.

13. Matt Schaub (Texans, 2004) - I still believe the Texans will have a top-five offense this year, and Shaub is a big reason why. The "cagey veterans" tier features the first six guys on the list who are capable of leading elite offenses, and Schaub is no different. His injury history holds him back from moving up a couple tiers.

12. Carson Palmer (Bengals, 2003) - Considered by many a top 3 QB back in 2005, Palmer has had trouble getting back to stardom since the injury. This ranking is based mostly on his past ability, as he's been jumpy and cautious this season.

11. Eli Manning (Giants, 2004) - As the 11th ranked QB on our list, Eli is the lowest ranked signal caller who has won a Super Bowl. That no lower ranked quarterbacks have won the big game demonstrates that an elite quarterback is a non-negotiable when building a Super Bowl-winning roster. Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer aside, the last 17 SB-winning QBs are Roethlisberger, Mannings, Brady, Warner, Elway, Favre, Young, and Aikman. There are rare exceptions, but if you want to win a Super Bowl, get an elite QB. Everyone's jumping on the Eli bandwagon again lately, but his opponents this year have been well below par. Eli is a guy who will always have some bad games throughout the year, but he has shown he's not intimidated by the big stage.

Old men who still got it

10. Kurt Warner (Cardinals, 1994) - Warner continues to look good this season, although some of us are waiting for the complete breakdown featuring tons of sacks and fumbles. Until that happens, he's a top-15 QB. As long as Warner has weapons, he's as good as anyone, although at his age, he could fall apart at any moment.

9. Brett Favre (Vikings, 1991) - Brett Favre is benefiting from a very talented roster, but with or without it this top-10 all-time QB is still a top-10 quarterback in the NFL today. The injuries from last year are not affecting him. The guy is an attention-whore and and it pains me to say it but he's still getting it done. Favre also won a ring, way back after the 1995 season.

8. Donovan McNabb (Eagles, 1999) - Not as old as Warner or Favre, but much older than the four guys directly in front of him, McNabb has been disrespected by fans, a diva WR and, most recently, his coach throughout the years. Nevertheless, McNabb has stayed steady as a top-10 QB through it all, and as everyone waits for him to fall of the cliff each new year, he keeps winning games and playing well, especially down the stretch in the regular season, with the Eagles going 6-2 in December the past two years and McNabb throwing for 11 TDs and only 2 interceptions during that span.

The future of the NFL

7. Jay Cutler (Bears, 2006) - The NFL should pay close attention to the three guys on this tier, because the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and the three guys in this tier, along with one or two guys from the "Rising stars" and "Question marks with potential" tiers will be the face of the league six years from now. I believe Cutler will always be stuck at the bottom of that elite tier, due mostly to poor leadership skills. Outside of that abortion of a first game against Green Bay, he has impressed me a lot, avoiding sacks by getting rid of the ball quickly while avoiding interceptions by always making the right decision and an accurate throw. At the end of this season, Denver may think it got the best deal in trading Cutler for Orton and picks. But eight years from now, Orton will be lucky to be playing while Cutler will be one of the league's ten best players.

6. Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 2005) - Brett Favre may have beaten the Packers, but Green Bay shouldn't regret their decision a year and a half ago to go with Rodgers over the legend. Rodgers has quietly put up great numbers since he got the starting job. He even put up great numbers against Minnesota despite poor play by his offensive line. Minnesota better take their wins now, because when Favre retires for good or runs out of gas, Aaron Rodgers will slap them silly twice a year for the next decade, Peterson or no Peterson.

5. Philip Rivers (San Diego, 2004) - As a fan, I really dislike Philip Rivers. I dislike his accent and his attitude and his smacktalk. So it pains me to say this, but I believe that by 2016 Rivers will be considered the unchallenged best quarterback in the NFL. Manning will be 40, Brady 39 and Brees 37 (all three will likely still be playing but not at the same level they are now). Roethlisberger will likely be out of the league by then, at age 34. Unless Matt Ryan or Stafford or someone like that surprises me, I think Rivers will be the NFL's #1 star by then. For now, he has to settle in behind two of the top 10 QBs of all time (as well as a couple others who will likely make the Hall of Fame). But eventually he'll surpass them all.

The Anomaly

4. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers, 2004) - There is no better player to spark up a debate on than Ben Roethlisberger. His stats are rarely overwhelming. He's started the same number of games as Eli Manning, but has been sacked 80 more times. He may never throw for 4,000 yards. Because of his playing style and reliance on physical skill, he will be lucky to have a career as long as a similar player like Steve McNair, whose skill eroded considerably the last 4 years of a 13 year career. And honestly, I just don't think Ben goes through progressions as quickly or effectively as other top five quarterbacks. He especially does not match up with the other top quarterbacks in the league when it comes to timing and scripted plays.

And yet, in many ways, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback in the NFL. He's on the same Super Bowl pace as Tom Brady. He has turned into a real leader on the field. He is not shaken by the big moment. He is by far the hardest quarterback in the league to take down. He is the best improviser in the NFL. As Collinsworth noted in week one, he has the NFL's best and most often used pump fakes. The time between the moment he decides where to throw the ball and the moment the ball leaves his hand is near nilch. Although his reads are a little slow, he creates enough time to get through them and makes good decisions. He's an accurate passer. He's a great play caller (much better than his coordinator). He makes a half dozen plays every game that would be impossible for anyone else. In short, Ben Roethlisberger is unquestionably the most exciting player in the NFL, and one more Super Bowl win away from a Hall of Fame spot.

As a Steeler fan, I would not trade Ben Roethlisberger for any of the three guys in front of him on this list. He is our guy and he is a Steeler. The top three quarterbacks in the league would still be great as a Steeler in our offense, but not as good as Ben is. On the flip side, I think Ben would look worse under center in New Orleans or Indianapolis. He just isn't that "drop back, read the play in a half second, throw the ball to a spot" kind of quarterback. He shouldn't have to be. He's great how he is and he's one of the most unique players in football. He won't last to 35 years old in the league due to his playing style, but for the next six years I'd take him over anyone.

Cream o' Crop

3. Tom Brady (Patriots, 2000) - Brady looked timid and rusty this year until this past week, but his "drop" to #3 is more about the two guys in front of him who have played well rather than Brady himself. He has said he'd like to play until he's 40, which is 7 or 8 more years, and I could see that. Tom Brady personifies the qualities of good decisions, fast thinking and accuracy that a quarterback needs. He's easy to hate if you're not a Patriot fan because he plays up the popped collar persona and things always seem to go right for him. In 2001 when the Patriots won the Super Bowl, Brady really only belonged in the "Average" category, or perhaps at best "Rising star." Since then he's won over all critics and will certainly go down as one of the 10 best quarterbacks of all time.

2. Drew Brees (Saints, 2001) - Remember before the 2004 season, when the Chargers were the worst organization in the NFL, we had trouble finding 4 wins on their upcoming schedule and Drew Brees was only keeping the seat warm for Philip Rivers? That seems like a long time ago now. Brees proved his talent, ended up in New Orleans and has never looked back. Brees plays for the best offense in the NFL and you could add him to 10 other NFL teams and instantly make them the best pro offense in the world. Brees makes the right decisions faster than anyone, throws accurately and leads on and off the field. Those are the only three quarterback qualities that matter; everything else is icing.

1. Peyton Manning (Colts, 1998) - The more things change, the more they stay the same. There have been arguments for five years that Brady is better, but no one argues that now. There will be (fair) arguments that Brees is better over the next 3-4 years, but don't believe it.

Imagine that aliens investigate our planet looking to take over, but they mistake NFL quarterbacks as the leader of the U.S.A. instead of politicians (not hard to believe, surprisingly). So they create a robo-human in a lab that has all the ability, work ethic and intangibles to be the perfect NFL quaterback. The result would be Peyton Manning.

Manning knows more than any other quarterback. He makes less mistakes than any other quarterback. He is the best ever at making defenders look stupid. He is the most accurate passer in the league and will never be outworked. He has proven that early playoff struggles were bad luck by winning a Super Bowl and taking down the Patriots along the way. He is on his way to a 4th league MVP award.

Peyton Manning has been the best quarterback in the NFL since at least 2003 and is still the best today. Favre better add to every (positive) career stat he currently owns, because Manning will own them all eventually. When we look back during his Hall of Fame induction ceremony, Manning will be in the conversation with Baugh, Graham, Unitas, Montana and Marino for best ever. Until then, he'll have to settle for #1 on this list.

Steelers lead league in passing stats.

Don't look now, but Steelers lead the league in passing and receiving yards.

Hines Ward tops all receivers with 599 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger leads all passers with 1887 yards. Of course, the Steelers haven't had a week off yet (he is behind only Peyton Manning in yards/game), and the passing defenses the Steelers have played are ranked 13, 14, 23, 28, 29, and 32 in terms of yardage. But that doesn't project to change much next week, as the Vikings are 24th in passing yardage allowed in the league, giving up 248 yards per game. Ben is averaging 314.5. He is 4th in the league in passer rating, trailing three guys who have way better running games behind them than him.

The bigger surprise to me is Hines Ward. The man is 33 but looks as good as ever this season. One has to credit Mike Tomlin for giving him Wednesdays off to help prolong his career. One or two more seasons like this and Hines will make the Hall of Fame, which to me looked like a longshot before the season. The man deserves his due as one of the greatest Steelers of the post-70s era, right up there with Rod Woodson and Dermontti Dawson.

There is little hope of running the ball successfully against the Vikings, so look for Big Ben to log 40+ passes this week.